Uk politics

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Nigel Farage reinforces David Cameron’s own anti-Ukip squeeze message

From our UK edition

Nigel Farage has talked in the past about his readiness to prop up a Labour minority government - he gave an interview to the Sunday People in October in which he said the Labour leader would just have to offer a referendum and a deal would be possible. But the fact that he has repeated it to the New Statesman this week is hardly helpful when his party is going head to head with the Tories in Rochester. His comments to Jason Cowley help David Cameron's squeeze message, which is that if you vote Ukip, you get Miliband. Ukip are trying to sound as though they don't care that this is getting so much pick-up, with a party source saying: 'They [the Tories] are the ones who want to do a deal with Labour!

Isabel Hardman

How can Labour overcome Ed Miliband’s poor appeal to voters?

From our UK edition

How do Labour campaigners overcome the Ed Miliband problem on the doorstep? Today's Standard poll finds just 13 per cent of voters think he is ready to be Prime Minister, down from 22 per cent in June. MPs, candidates and activists have noticed a hardening in voters' attitudes towards the Labour leader. One says: 'Voters have gone from thinking "I'm not sure about this guy" to "I've made up my mind about this guy and I'm not going to vote for him".' But the candidate standing before them on the doorstep needs to work out how to persuade that voter to back them. So what do they do? One says that they explain to voters that when you meet Ed Miliband in person he's a 'really nice, funny, smart guy who cares desperately about our country'.

Isabel Hardman

Tories three points ahead of Labour in new poll

From our UK edition

The Tories have pulled ahead of Labour in a new poll in today's Evening Standard. The Ipsos Mori poll puts David Cameron's party three points ahead of Labour, at 32, and Labour down four points to 29. The Lib Dems are on 9 and Ukip 14. This poll is just one poll, Labour will say, as it tries to stop more panic breaking out ahead of Miliband's speech tomorrow. But it is a bad poll, the worst poll for Labour so far. The Labour leader does need to reassure his party that going neck-and-neck and sometimes behind the Tories is not a symptom of Labour's weaknesses but a feature of the era of multi-party politics which means that no mainstream party can expect a poll lead. That the Tories are on 32 per cent is hardly a sign of strength, either.

Isabel Hardman

Does Cameron benefit from ECJ ruling?

From our UK edition

Yesterday's 'excellent' ruling from the European Court of Justice on benefits immediately seemed a jolly good thing for David Cameron and allowed him to move on the Commons shambles on the European Arrest Warrant. But is it a good thing for his renegotiation plan? The Guardian reports the head of the European People's Party in the European parliament saying that this judgement means the UK does not need to contest freedom of movement 'because it highlights that member states have many options and legal tools at their disposal to make sure their social system is not abused'. This would make sense if David Cameron just wants to reform freedom of movement so that you can only move to this country for work.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

School children excited to see David Cameron in Rochester (and TV cameras)

From our UK edition

I spent an hour today following David Cameron around a school in Rochester as part of his latest campaign visit in the by-election. The school, Strood Academy, was candidate Kelly Tolhurst's alma mater, and has the benefit of being in a snazzy building, which looks nice for photos. The children in the school were obviously thrilled that the Prime Minister was there: they didn't know until he appeared on the premises and as he walked into a citizenship class, all the students' eyes widened with surprise. He was mobbed as he walked through the building, with children turning to each other shouting 'I shook his hand! I've got to tell my mum this!' This was all very nice, but there is one slightly odd detail about this by-election visit.

Alex Massie

Does anyone actually want to win the next election?

From our UK edition

A battle lost is worse than a battle won and there are fewer Pyrrhic victories in politics than you think. One of the staples of pre-election punditry, however, is that someone will always pipe up with the suggestion This is a Good Election to Lose. It is almost always bunk. Not least because, with the notable exception of the Liberal Democrats, major political parties are in the business of acquiring, then exercising, power. Shorn of that they lose their point. So there's that. Nevertheless if you suspect there might be a but lurking a couple of lines in the future your premonition would, in this instance, be correct. But this might actually be a rare exception to the general rule. This could be an election it really is better to lose than to win.

Sebastian Payne

It’s time for Boris to abandon his island and back Gatwick expansion

From our UK edition

Surprise surprise, airport expansion is going to cost more than anyone expected. Howard Davies, of the Airport Commission fame, took to the Today programme this morning to kick off the public consultation while informing delighted flyers (who will likely end up footing part of the bill) that a second runway at Gatwick will cost £2 billion more than previously suggested. A third runway or runway extension at Heathrow will be in the region of an additional £3-4 billion.

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Government wins European Arrest Warrant ‘vote’

From our UK edition

So Labour lost its vote delaying the vote on the European Arrest Warrant that wasn't technically a vote on that measure anyway. The first vote, that the question not be put today so that Parliament could have a full debate and vote another day, was lost, with 272 MPs voting 'no' with the government and 229 voting with Labour. There had been a big debate on the Tory backbenches about the best tactic, with MPs angry about the government's behaviour split over whether to vote with Labour or abstain. This meant that Labour lost the vote.

Isabel Hardman

Uproar in the Commons: the story so far

From our UK edition

This is an extract from tonight's Evening Blend email, a free summary of the day's political developments from the Spectator team. To subscribe, click here. And to read the email in full, click here. Thanks to Theresa May's hard work, tonight's vote on the European Arrest Warrant was looking to be a reasonably downbeat affair, with around 30 Tory rebels expected and the package of justice and home affairs opt-ins due to pass on the strength of government payroll and Labour votes. But things escalated rather quickly once MPs were inside the Chamber. All weekend there had been confusion about whether the vote on the European Arrest Warrant was indeed a vote on the European Arrest Warrant or simply one on the 11 measures that the House of Commons has never formally supported before.

Isabel Hardman

Government wins crunch vote on European Arrest Warrant by NINE VOTES

From our UK edition

The government has just won the vote extending the debate on the justice and home affairs opt-outs by just nine votes - 251 ayes to 242 noes. This means that MPs have approved the motion for the debate to continue to 10pm, which rebels and Labour had turned against because the Speaker had said that this was not a vote on the European Arrest Warrant. Theresa May is insistent, though, that this is a vote on the matter. Such a narrow win is clearly a relief for ministers  - and many of them had been hauled into the Commons early by panicked whips who suddenly realised they were facing a defeat. If just a few more had been delayed, the rebels could have won. It is still a serious blow for the Home Secretary.

Isabel Hardman

Net migration target becomes an ‘aim’ or ‘objective’

From our UK edition

When is a target not a target? Theresa May seems quite keen for us to think that Tory pledge to bring migration down to the tens of thousands was a 'comment' or an 'aim', now that it doesn't look as though that's going to be possible in time for the election. Today Number 10 did insist that there had been no change in the target, but also refused to call it a 'promise'. The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: 'There's no change. That remains the objective towards which the Prime Minister and others are working… It has always been the objective. There's been no change, the tens of thousands by the end of this Parliament.

Isabel Hardman

European Arrest Warrant vote mired in confusion

From our UK edition

The government's vote on the European Arrest Warrant this evening is becoming rather confused. The motion does not include a mention of the warrant itself, which ministers had hoped would have a psychological effect on MPs considering how to vote, as the division would not be solely about the most contentious measure. The motion is as follows: 'That the draft Criminal Justice and Data Protection (Protocol No. 36) Regulations 2014, which were laid before this House on 3 November, be approved.' The chairmen of three select committees last week described the voting arrangements for this evening.

Sebastian Payne

Reckless criticised by Medway NHS for Ukip election leaflet

From our UK edition

Mark Reckless is in trouble for reckless campaigning. One of his promotional leaflets (pdf), noting his plans for the NHS in Rochester and Strood, features a photo of Reckless alongside the Medway NHS Trust chief executive Phillip Barnes. Unsurprisingly, the local NHS chiefs aren't happy about this. By using a photo of Barnes and Reckless, taken when he was the Conservative MP for Rochester, on a campaign leaflet the Medway NHS trust believes it may be taken as 'inferring that both Dr Barnes and the hospital were supporting Mr Reckless' campaign.

Isabel Hardman

May cautious on net migration target

From our UK edition

Judging by how happy she is to talk about the case for remaining within it, Theresa isn't expecting a big rebellion on the European Arrest Warrant later today. She may have driven down some of the numbers by not talking about the measure in the motion that's before the Commons, but really it's a combination of her behind the scenes talks with MPs to persuade them she has secured reform and a desire on the part of backbenchers not to make the story about Tory revolts when things are going so badly for Labour that's swung it. There is, as ever, internal Conservative grumbling that the rebel whips haven't been sufficiently well- organised.

Sunday

Isabel Hardman

Labour unrest: What Ed Miliband can learn from David Cameron’s struggles with the Tories

From our UK edition

Well, the Labour party certainly knows how to give the appearance of a fight when its back is against the wall. Many MPs and supporters have spent quite a lot of this fine autumn day tweeting frantically that this morning's unpleasant headlines (summarised in their full gory glory by James here) are a plot by the media to stop their thoroughly decent leader making it to Downing Street and why aren't we all writing about the problems that David Cameron has with the Conservative party instead? They protest too much: if lobby journalists were organised enough to compile time sheets, most of us would quite clearly have spent the bulk of our time since the 2010 election writing about Tory misery, not Labour.

James Forsyth

The Labour leadership crisis that David Cameron would have scripted

From our UK edition

So far, this is the Labour leadership crisis that David Cameron would have scripted. The papers this morning are full of awful poll findings for Ed Miliband, negative briefings and on the record criticism from his own side. But, there is no sign of a challenger yet nor has a frontbencher resigned. So, all this strife is doing is further turning public opinion against Miliband and turning the focus to where the Tories want it to be, is Miliband Prime Ministerial material? Where does all this go from here? Well, if Alan Johnson was at all interested things would get very interesting very quickly. But his denials seem entirely genuine.

Friday

Steerpike

Miliband triggers an outbreak of political unity – though not the sort Labour wants

From our UK edition

Is the latest Labour leadership crisis actually triggering new wave of party unity? Lord Prescott, who has slammed Miliband as ‘timid’ for his ‘complacent’ leadership style, spotted John McTernan, Tony Blair’s former political secretary turned columnist, in the reception of the BBC after they had both been on the airwaves to discuss the party’s dire straits. 'I remember when we used to disagree about things' called out Prezza. And it’s not just sparring partners in his own party who Ed is bringing together. At last some common ground has been found between Ukip and the Tories. 'He's the best thing going for absolutely everyone right now,' one Ukip spin doctor said of Ed Miliband.

Isabel Hardman

Tory eurosceptics plot to use loss in Rochester to pressure Cameron

From our UK edition

Labour might be mired in misery this week, but at least it can take comfort that around the corner is the Rochester by-election, which the Conservatives look set to lose. Not one MP returning from campaigning against their former colleague Mark Reckless honestly thinks they'll win, even if they tweet nice things and post aggressive videos. Let's just remind ourselves of why losing this constituency is particularly painful for the Conservatives. They spent their conference calling Reckless a 'dickhead' and saying they thought they could win the by-election because he was a liar, and he didn't have the same personal appeal as Douglas Carswell in a constituency considered far less Ukip-friendly.

Isabel Hardman

Tory MPs react to Osborne’s ‘EU bill deal’

From our UK edition

So are Tory backbenchers happy with what George Osborne claims to have brought back from Europe after his talks on that £1.7 billion bill? While the government argues with the European Commission about what it has and hasn't secured this afternoon, the Right of the Tory party have already been working out what they think. Some had set a very low limbo bar of £400 million, and Britain certainly will end up paying more than that. The first thing is that they're naturally not happy with the idea that Britain is paying anything. The basic view of those in the No Turning Back and Cornerstone groups is that Osborne should have turned around to the Commission and say 'sorry chaps, we'll see you in court about this', given the court action would take place after the election.

Anne Jolis

Smoke, mirrors, magic: how George Osborne “halved” the £1.7bn EU bill

From our UK edition

George Osborne took a victory lap on Friday to declare that 'instead of footing the bill, we have halved the bill.' This would be the £1.7 billion EU budget invoice the European Commission handed to the UK government in October, with a pay-by date of 1 December. After meeting with his EU counterparts today, the UK finance minister announced a deal in which 'the bill instead of being £1.7 billion will be around £850 million'. Er...not quite, as it turns out. Here's what Osborne left out: the UK will still owe the full £1.7 billion, only not all in December, and would be able to quickly offset part of the cost with its usual rebate on EU contributions.