Uk politics

A year ago, George Osborne was giving voters a glimpse of the sunny uplands that they could expect from life under a Tory government. At the time, few believed that there would be a Tory majority after the election, but here we are at the 2016 Budget with the Chancellor still in weatherman mode, but now warning that the ‘storm clouds are gathering again’ over the economy. Osborne will say today that ‘in this Budget we choose the long term’ and that this government will ‘put the next generation first’. The Chancellor would have had to change his weather metaphors in post-election economic statements anyway, because every Budget right before an election is a nakedly political one.

The saying ‘the House of Commons at its best’ is normally a pompous description of parliamentarians agreeing with one another on something it is impossible to disagree on. However, when MPs come together to scrutinise legislation involving the security services, they do come rather close to being at their best, as they grow rather anxious about whether the legislation will actually work. So far the debate on the Investigatory Powers Bill has largely been detailed and thoughtful and without much silly knockabout. But the closest the second reading session has come to knockabout was when Andy Burnham was offering Labour’s response.

Look! All this sniping at Jeremy Corbyn is wrong and now we have proof. The Labour leader is not in fact trashing his party’s brand. Today a poll from ICM puts the Conservatives and Labour level on 36 per cent, a jump of four points for the opposition and a drop of three for the governing party. But before Corbynistas have had a chance to gather up their red flags and take to the sunny streets to celebrate, ICM has already issued a clarification which, in essence, trashes the poll’s finding.

Based on the tone that he took on the Andrew Marr Show this morning, we can expect George Osborne to take a rather defiant tone as he unveils this week’s Budget. The Chancellor has had a difficult few weeks, not least because of the retreat on pension reforms and defeat on Sunday trading, but he tried to turn this into a virtue, saying: ‘The big picture is people look at Britain and they see a country getting its act together and putting its house in order. And if you look at what we do as a government, I think we take big, radical, reforming steps. Yeah, we have got a small majority, so do we win every vote? No, we don’t. But you can do two things in the face of that. ‘You can either shut up shop and do nothing - that is not me as a politician.

Don’t expect ‘fireworks’ from the Budget one of Osborne’s closest political allies told me this week. Ahead of the Budget on Wednesday the Chancellor finds himself hemmed in by the EU referendum, fraying Tory discipline and the worsening global economic situation, I say in my Sun column this week. A Budget four years out from a general election is normally when a government takes some risks. But I doubt Osborne will be doing much of that on Wednesday. First, he doesn’t want to do anything to make the EU referendum more difficult for the government to win—the intensity with which David Cameron is campaigning reveals how worried he is about losing it. Second, Cameron and Osborne know that they can’t rely on Tory MPs at the moment.

What is Labour's biggest obstacle to getting back into government any time soon? Those who've spent any time thinking about the general election result - and the party still doesn't talk that much about May 2015 - will say that until voters trust the party on the economy, it is not going to succeed. John McDonnell's team clearly agrees, briefing the media today that the reason the Shadow Chancellor is making a major intervention on the economy as he prepares for the Budget is that voters were wary of Labour on the economy.  McDonnell's speech today sounds remarkably similar to the messages Ed Balls offered before the election, that Liz Kendall annoyed members with in the leadership contest and that Rachel Reeves produced in her own speech just days ago.

David Cameron’s referendum campaign trail continued today, with the Prime Minister visiting Chester and giving a speech defending Britain’s membership of the European Union. And on the other side his Cabinet colleague Chris Grayling gave a speech warning about the dangers of continuing to stay in the bloc. Neither speech today was particularly angry with the other side - though separately Vote Leave’s Matthew Elliott accused the Prime Minister of being ‘desperate to change the subject from his failure to deliver his manifesto promises on immigration’.

In the past few minutes, the government has lost its attempt to relax Sunday trading laws in the Commons 317 votes to 286. The rebellion has been brewing for months, with ministers playing a game of chicken with angry Tory backbenchers right up to the vote. A last-minute attempt by George Osborne to stave off the rebellion by proposing a series of pilots of the relaxed rules, tabled as a manuscript amendment in the middle of the morning, failed when the Speaker rejected it. This has not helped Osborne’s standing amongst MPs, with some remarking that the whole exercise had shown that the Chancellor had still not learned what the limits of the Tory party’s patience were.