Uk politics

Is Andrea Leadsom a serious contender to become Prime Minister? A few days ago, she was almost about to sign up to Team Boris, and even held talks with Team Crabb & Javid. Which made sense: she has been in parliament for just six years, and has been a junior minister for an even shorter time. But to those Tories unable to forgive Michael Gove for knifing Boris, she is the only viable Brexit candidate. Until Leadson turned up on the Brexit debates, she was virtually unknown. Now, we’re being asked to assess her as a Prime Minister. Her appearance on the Marr show today was a chance to do that: it as a job interview, on live TV.

Stephen Crabb has a 3pc chance of winning the Conservative leadership, according to to the bookmakers. Yes, the same ones who said there was a 10pc chance of David Cameron winning a majority and a 7pc chance of Brexit. The seemingly impossible is happening all the time in politics. The obstacles to his joint bid with Sajid Javid are obvious: lack of government experience, lack of MPs' support (he has 21 so far) and having supported Remain. This is the type of leadership bid aimed at putting down a marker. But for those who believe that this race ought to be as much about ideas as personalities, it's worth considering their arguments. Both are interested in blue-collar Conservatism, both have inspiring backstories in an era that regards politics as biography.

Labour has gone oddly quiet today, and that’s not just because the party is enjoying the mayhem in the Conservative leadership contest. After a very well-organised week of resignations, the rebels have now decided to sit back and wait for Jeremy Corbyn to come to terms with what the party he leads now looks like. The leader today appointed Angela Rayner as Shadow Education Secretary, which was a matter of necessity as it is Education Questions in the Commons on Monday, and the party didn’t have anyone to face Nicky Morgan. But the Labour frontbench generally looks like a Swiss cheese after the mice have been at it. There are gaps in every team.

Michael Gove's newly-formed campaign team have been ringing around shocked Tory MPs in the past couple of hours to explain why the Justice Secretary pulled out of running Boris Johnson's Tory leadership campaign to launch his own bid, I understand. Dominic Raab, who had also been signed up to the Boris campaign, has been telling colleagues that Boris had proved to be flaky, and that he had not been offering key jobs to figures such as Andrea Leadsom when he had been supposed to - hence Leadsom's own declaration this morning. They were also disappointed with the quality of people around Boris - a comment that has infuriated other Tory MPs who had been supporting the former Mayor.

This is an extract from Charles Moore's Notes in the new issue of The Spectator, out tomorrow. George Osborne says he can stay in the government in some capacity (‘a decision for the next prime minister’). Monday’s Financial Times reported ‘Friends say a move to the Foreign Office would be the only other job that would appeal.’ No doubt they are right, but have Mr Osborne and his friends not noticed that what ‘appeals’ to him has nothing whatever to do with what the country needs? Unlike David Cameron, who said immediately and firmly that he will go, the Chancellor does not seem to understand that he has got it all wrong. His sense of entitlement is completely unfounded.

Westminster is at its fastest-moving and most unstable for years. Portcullis House and the tea rooms are buzzing with MPs discussing the demise of their leader and who they’ll back in the contest to replace him: and that goes for both main parties, though of course the golden rule of politics still applies, which is that no matter how colossal the Tory mess is, Labour’s will always be gargantuan in comparison. Today the Conservatives decided to move back the date by which their leader must be confirmed to 9 September, which will come as a relief to those Tories who were grumbling about being hauled back from the Mediterranean a week early. The consensus in the party is that the two frontrunners in the leadership contest are Boris Johnson and Theresa May.

The demonstration in support of Jeremy Corbyn is starting to dissipate, but Labour MPs have this evening been contacted by their whips to advise them on their personal safety as they leave Parliament after the late votes. They have been advised on what entrances are being kept open for their safety, and told that anyone who is worried should contact the Serjeant at Arms. Labourites are particularly annoyed that their party's whips have had to send this message to them given they confronted Jeremy Corbyn at the parliamentary Labour party meeting this evening over the behaviour of the grassroots group Momentum. Ian Murray received a big cheer for telling him to 'call off the dogs', and Jess Phillips also accused Momentum of stirring up anti-Zionist sentiment.