Tories

The EU Referendum has served to emphasise the huge divisions which exist across our country. One of the most prominent and significant of these divisions is the disparity between those who are seemingly economically comfortable and those who struggle on a daily basis. There are some who characterise these struggles as a natural conclusion of the austerity measures pursued by Coalition and majority Conservative Governments. If only it were that simple. The EU Referendum brought to the surface decades of growing anguish from sections of the country's working people: wages that never seem to rise coupled with increased pressure on local public services – a double whammy of discontent. This is not a new phenomenon.

Andrea Leadsom is the last of the five candidates to launch her bid for the Tory leadership. But if the bookies odds are anything to go on, she is rapidly emerging as a potential frontrunner in this race. Many will view Leadsom as one of the 'Brexit candidates' in this fight. Somewhat refreshingly, though, she painted Brexit not as something for Britain to be afraid of but a positive step. Towards the end of the speech, she said that: 'As your Prime Minister my ambition will be to guide our country to those sunlit uplands.' She also went on to borrow David Cameron's reference during the referendum campaign to voting for our children and grandchildrens' sakes, to suggest that Brexit will be good for future generations.

Well I might as well say publicly what I’ve been saying to everyone who will listen privately for the last week. It seems to me that our country will regret the distraction and levity we have shown this past week. For those who campaigned to leave the EU, June 24th was not an opportunity to take a break but the start of the real work. Of course it remains astonishing that having lost the vote the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer chose to go into hiding and abandon the country they were in place to serve. But it is also unforgiveable that having won the campaign those who campaigned to leave have not dedicated themselves solely to putting the country right.

Even by the standards of Westminster politics, yesterday's developments will be remembered for a long time. But meanwhile, in the short-term, Michael Gove's decision to launch his own campaign - and Boris' subsequent move to drop out - favours only one person in the Tory leadership race: Theresa May. The Home Secretary made her pitch as the quieter candidate who would just get on with the job. Amidst the noise of what looks set to be a nasty leadership campaign, that strategy already seems to be paying off. This morning, May has won the backing of the Daily Mail. The paper described yesterday as one of the most 'unedifying days in modern politics'.

Theresa May has launched her Conservative leadership bid this morning. Her scheduled announcement came just moments after Michael Gove announced that he was also entering the race in a surprise move, having broken ranks with Boris Johnson's own campaign. In her speech, which you can read in full here, the Home Secretary said: 'My pitch is very simple. I'm Theresa May and I think I'm the best person to be Prime Minister of this country' May spoke at length of her reasoning for wanting the top job during her 16-minute speech. On Brexit, she said the country had emerged from a 'bruising and divisive campaign'.

Westminster is still digesting what happened on Thursday night. But before Britain can turn itself to the big question of how to leave the EU, a new Prime Minister has to be chosen by the Tory party. Nearly every Tory MP I’ve spoken to since Friday morning is of the view that the new PM will have to be an Outer. They argue that the public would find it find odd to vote for Britain to leave, and then have a new PM chosen who was on the losing side in the referendum. There are, as I report in The Sun this morning, Cabinet Ministers who want Michael Gove to run. They think he would be the best PM of the Outers and that he would find it easier to reunite the party than Boris. But, I understand, Gove is not planning to put himself forward.

The murder of Jo Cox was a moment that leaves you numb; an MP paying the ultimate price for the open society we live in. For the fact that our representatives live and work among us. Despite this tragedy, democracy must go on. By this time next week, the EU referendum will be over. The country will have made up its mind. Whether it is Leave or Remain, the UK will need a period of stability. This means David Cameron staying on as Prime Minister and, as I reveal in The Sun today, plans are already well advanced to ensure that this happens. Boris Johnson has signed a letter saying that Cameron must carry on as Prime Minister regardless of the result; making clear that he isn’t interested in any coup attempt.

There are few moments in politics when parties put aside their differences to come together. Yesterday’s tragic events in Birstall has brought about one such occasion. After the terrible killing of Labour MP Jo Cox, the Conservatives have said they will not be contesting the by-election held in Batley and Spen.

Amidst the fanfare surrounding the EU referendum, today's Tooting by-election has come around virtually unnoticed. Triggered by Sadiq Khan stepping down after being elected Mayor of London, the contest does not look like it will herald much in the way of surprises. Barring a big upset, Labour's Rosena Allin-Khan is set to win. Labour have held onto the seat since 1974, and it seems likely we won't see a Tory win this time around either. But today's by-election will be a closer race than it might have been a few years ago. At the last election, Labour's majority was slashed from 15,000 in 1997 to 2,800. And Allin-Khan will be up against Dan Watkins, who ran against Khan in 2015, winning some 22,000 votes. So does he stand any chance of defying the odds this time around?

All sides of the Remain campaign are turning their fire on Boris Johnson at the moment. But these attacks are, I argue in The Sun today, a mistake by the Remainers. First, it makes Boris, the most popular politician in the country, the face of the Out campaign when the IN campaign’s strategic aim is to make voters think that Nigel Farage embodies the Out case. Second, it means that the whole referendum is seen through the prism of the Tory leadership. This is not only bad for Tory party unity post-referendum, but also makes it harder for IN campaign to get the support of Labour party voters as it drowns out Labour’s own message. Senior figures in the Remain campaign think that the attacks on Boris work because, they claim, he is seen as being out for himself and a hypocrite.

This EU referendum is a particularly difficult contest to poll and after the general election we all should be wary of treating them as gospel. But there’s no getting away from the fact that the mood in Westminster—and on the two campaigns—is heavily influenced by the polls. The recent good numbers for Leave have put a string in its step. They have also ensured that Vote Leave’s focus on immigration in the last few days isn’t seen as the last roll of the dice but as an attempt to focus on one of its strongest areas. Interestingly, influential figures on the Remain side privately accept that the referendum appears to have tightened up in the past few days.

In a speech to Policy Exchange today, Steve Hilton—David Cameron’s former senior adviser—will make the case that ‘any intellectual rigorous examination makes it impossible for a Tory moderniser to support staying in the EU’. He argues that Tory modernisation was about trusting people, and that the EU does not; that modernisation was about localism, and that the EU is inherently centralising; and that the EU helps the rich and not the rest. I think there’s much to be said for Hilton’s analysis. (Though, of course, it should be recognised that there are Tory modernisers on both sides of the argument.) But where Hilton is surely right is that the EU is not the future, it is an idea of its time—the late 20th century.

Theresa May knows all about the pitfalls of speaking at the Police Federation but she is also well aware of how the conference can provide the perfect platform for underlining her leadership credentials. Back in 2012, the Home Secretary was booed, laughed at and made to speak in front of a sign which described government budget cuts as ‘criminal’. Last year, she accused the Federation of ‘crying wolf’ about finances. But her most memorable address to officers gathered at the annual Police Federation came in 2014, when she left the stage in silence – having stunned those gathered with her criticism of the police.

In normal times, the government clears the decks ahead of the Queen’s Speech. It wants to ensure maximum publicity for its legislative agenda. But these are not normal times: there’s an EU referendum campaign raging. Number 10 are being quite clear, as I write in The Sun today, that with less than six weeks to go to polling day, there won’t be a campaign ceasefire this week. ‘It is too close now’ one senior source tells me. So, why is the Queen’s Speech taking place at all? One IN supporting Minister complains that it is ‘moronic’ to be having it now, as it means that the measures announced it are likely to get caught up in the referendum cross fire.

The election results that we’ve had through so far are a pretty potent combination for the Labour party. Diane Abbott said this morning that they show that Labour is on course to win the 2020 general election, while Jeremy Corbyn skirted around what they actually meant for the party in the long-term when he gave his reaction. The potency lies in the party’s devastation in Scotland that points to a long-term structural inability to win a majority coupled with English council results that, by being less bad than expected, deceive about the challenge the party faces in winning in those areas in 2020.

The EU referendum rumbles ever closer but after a bad week for the leave campaign following Barack Obama's controversial intervention can those calling for Brexit fight back? And is Nicky Morgan staging a climbdown over Tory plans for academies? Spectator editor Fraser Nelson speaks to James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman about what this week holds. Speaking on today's Coffee House podcast, Isabel says those calling for Brexit must now find a way of calming peoples' fears about what life outside the EU would look like. She says: 'I think it was definitely a much better week for remain than for leave because you had the most powerful man in the world making an intervention on the remain side.

Now that Jeremy Corbyn is head of the Labour party, his army of Corbynistas are waiting in the wings, ready to brand anyone who shows the slightest sign of disloyalty a 'red Tory'. Some of the 'Tories' so far outed by the hard left include Liz Kendall, Yvette Cooper, John McTernan, Stella Creasy, Harriet Harman, Tony Blair and Lord Adonis. However, even Mr S was surprised to learn of the latest non-believer to be added to the list. Despite being mocked recently for being a 'revolutionary Marxist' by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Paul Mason has now been accused of being a secret Tory.