Tories

The year 2019 seems a long way away. Whether or not David Cameron can stay in office until then is this week’s hot topic of conversation among Tories. They wonder how many more weeks like the last two the Prime Minister can endure. Before Parliament broke up for Easter, the view among Cameron loyalists was that the Tory party needed a holiday. The thinking went that the recess would remove MPs from the Westminster pressure cooker and let referendum tempers cool. But this break turned out to be a disaster. The government spent the first week trying to get on top of the Port Talbot steel story and the second attempting to fend off the fallout from the Panama papers.

Just a few days into the official campaign for the Holyrood elections and Ruth Davidson has had to change her tactics. The plan had originally been for the Scottish Conservatives to run a serious campaign which has fewer tanks than the election campaign, and more serious speeches. ‘We tried that whole idea of you know we're going to do this really stripped down, just speeches, and just like listening to people bla bla bla,’ says Davidson. ‘And then kind of all the press went this is really boring and we went, yeah, it kind of is.’ And so Davidson has been playing ice hockey, racing blue and red cars, and driving a ski-doo. When we meet, she is touring a very serious looking factory.

David Cameron’s slap down of Boris Johnson on Monday was one of the most brutal, and personal, that I’ve seen in six and a half years of reporting on parliament. But, as I report in my Sun column today, Number 10 are now keen to calm things down. Indeed, even some of Cameron’s closest allies now concede that the tone he took with Boris on Monday was a mistake. I’m told that Cameron and Boris have been in contact and are now exchanging, dread word, ‘bantery’ texts. One well-placed source is clear that the ‘PM’s tone will be much more emollient from now on’.

  [audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/insidethetorieseudogfight/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth, Fraser Nelson and Isabel Hardman discuss the Tory dogfight over Europe"] Listen [/audioplayer] Many Tories had doubts about David Cameron’s EU renegotiation, but only Boris Johnson was promised a piece of legislation to assuage his particular concerns. It was quite a compliment. The so-called Sovereignty Bill was, in effect, the Get Boris Onside Act. It was designed to deal with the Mayor of London’s fears about the relationship between the British parliament and courts and the EU. It was also mooted that Boris would be offered a top cabinet job — perhaps Foreign Secretary.

George Osborne’s plan for this referendum was to turn it into a question of the future versus the past, for both the country and the Tory party. He wanted the voters to see the Out campaign as a bunch of people who wanted to take Britain back to a bygone era. Inside the Tory party, his aim was to have the talent and the ambition on the IN side with only old war horses and the passed over and bitter on the other side. But the events of the past 36 hours have blown this plan off course. Out now has one of the most popular politicians in the country on board in Boris, as well as one of the intellectual driving forces behind Tory modernisation and the party’s new social justice agenda in Gove.

David Cameron has claimed his deal with the EU gives Britain 'special status'. The PM has also said Brexit would be a 'leap in the dark' but with the high-profile loss of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson to the out campaign, it seems that not all Conservative MPs agree with him. Who are the other Tories who have turned their back on the PM? And which of David Cameron's party colleagues have voiced their approval for staying in the EU? Here The Spectator has put together a list of every Conservative MP – showing who is in, out, or yet to make up their mind about the big question of Europe.

If all goes according to David Cameron’s plan, he’ll have his EU deal by this time next week. But Downing Street still can’t be sure of which Tory heavyweights will be with Cameron come the referendum campaign, and which won’t. Even more than Boris Johnson, Michael Gove is causing Downing Street angst. As I report in The Sun today, Gove is ‘definitely wobbling’ according to one Downing Street source. Downing Street think the chances of him backing Out have increased significantly in the last 10 days or so. Gove himself has been telling people that he won’t make a decision until the deal is done. But those around him are now preparing for Gove coming Out.

The Tories risk playing ‘petty, grubby’ politics by planning to delay the Commons vote on Trident renewal, former head of the Navy Lord West has warned Coffee House. A group of former senior military figures, ex-ministers and MPs are writing to David Cameron and George Osborne next week to urge them to push ahead with the votes on the ’main gate’ decision on the new submarines as soon as possible, after reports that the Conservatives were planning to delay until closer to Labour’s autumn conference. David Cameron this week said ‘we should have the vote when we need to have the vote and that is exactly what we will do’, which suggested he wasn’t trying to create a sense of urgency about the matter.

With the government still convinced that there’s a better than 50:50 chance of a deal at the February EU Council which would pave the way for an EU referendum in June, the pressure on Tory backbenchers to back the Prime Minister is being stepped up. This week, saw the launch of the Cameron endorsed, pro-EU membership Conservatives for Reform in Europe group. Those involved in this group are confident, as I write in The Sun today, that they will get the support of a majority of Tory MPs. Tory MPs are being left in no doubt as to what side Cameron wants them on come the referendum. The message to them, as one of those close to Cameron puts it, is that a ‘free vote doesn’t mean a free pass’. But there are reasons to suspect that the referendum timetable might slip.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/donaldtrumpsrise-racismattheoscarsandcameronscentre-rightsecret/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss the PM's centre-right secret" startat=628] Listen [/audioplayer]There are times when Westminster’s obsession with US politics is embarrassing for even the strongest believer in the Anglo-American relationship. Monday was one of those days: MPs debated banning Donald Trump, the reality TV star turned presidential hopeful, from entering Britain. Leaving aside the illiberal absurdity of this, Trump hadn’t even said he was planning a visit. It was a pathetic attempt by MPs to insert themselves into the US presidential race. But what cannot be denied is the extent to which Trump is shaking up US politics.

A new face at PMQs becomes samey after a few months. Corbo reached that point some time ago and Cameron can now contain him without breaking a sweat. He’s not threatened by the Labour leader for the simple reason that Corbyn lacks any forensic guile. To prepare, mount or press home an attack is beyond his powers so he just reads out his set questions in a low verbal moan, like next door’s Hoover. Today they tussled over the scrapping of bursaries for trainee nurses. Cameron said this reform makes it easier to fill the wards with bustling sisters and swishing matrons. No, said Corbyn. It’s harder. Amazingly, some light was shed on this difference. It depends where they come from. Corbyn wants vacancies filled from any old place.