Theresa may

The government suffered a defeat in the Commons this evening. The good news for Theresa May is that it wasn't the one No 10 were so worried about. Although Philip Lee's amendment for European medicines regulatory network partnership succeeded, the Tory rebel amendment calling for the government to join a customs union if it does not agree a free-trade deal with the EU was narrowly defeated, at 307 to 301. This means the government can breathe a little easier for now. They can still claim to agitated Brexiteers that they are negotiating a deal which would allow them to strike international trade deals.

Both the Brexit and and Foreign Secretaries have resigned. The Chequers agreement, if that is the right word, looks about as enduring as the latest relationship on Love Island. The Prime Minister is staggering so uncertainly from one option to another that even Donald Trump’s advice over the weekend seemed almost sane. The UK’s strategy for leaving the European Union, insofar as we ever really had one, is in tatters. Big Business will no doubt respond to that with calls for a softer and softer Brexit simply in the hope of getting something in place before March next year. We will hear a lot about cliff edges, and the dangers of a collapse in the economy.

Will Theresa May make it to the summer recess? It's just over a week until Parliament breaks up for the long summer break yet the obstacles the Prime Minister must overcome before then are rapidly increasing in size. After May finally showed her Brexit hand, she has seen a growing Eurosceptic rebellion which shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Over the weekend, her former minister Steve Baker accused No 10 of being part of a secret plot to render the Brexit department a 'Potemkin structure to [distract from] what the Cabinet Office Europe unit was doing for the prime minister'. Meanwhile, Jacob Rees-Mogg offered a memorable soundbite – telling the Sunday Politics that May was a 'Remainer who has remained a Remainer'.

If Theresa May gets a Brexit deal and it can’t get through parliament, then we are heading towards the most dangerous political crisis in living memory, I say in The Sun this morning. For I very much doubt that the 80 percent of MPs who are opposed to no deal, would let Britain leave without an agreement. But disregarding the result of the referendum—either by abandoning Brexit or leaving only to make Britain, effectively, a non-voting member of the EU—would cause a democratic shock. 17.4 million voters would be, understandably, furious about having their vote ignored. So, what can Mrs May do to avert this disaster? Well, I think there are three things she should do. First, she should start treating voters and her own MPs like adults.

It's day four of the Brexiteer rebellion and Theresa May appears to have shored up her position... for now. The eurosceptics who take the greatest issue with her Chequers blue print – thought to be around 70 Tory MPs – don't think they have the numbers as of yet to win a no confidence and, they say, this isn't even their preferred option. What they want is for the Prime Minister to change course – but No 10 insist that they won't budge. Unless she does, Guerrilla tactics have been threatened – so get ready for more resignations. However, as I say in today's i paper, the biggest problem from May's current predicament is that even if things go to plan, the end goal looks verging on impossible.

Uh oh – Poor Theresa.  You know that when Donald Trump, the most powerful man in the world, tells the media that you and he have a ‘very good relationship’, it means he doesn’t like you at all. It’s what he said about Theresa May this morning, just before he left for Europe. It’s also what he says about Justin Trudeau (‘good relationship’), Angela Merkel ('really great relationship’),  Mitch McConnell ('relationship is very good') and even Barack Obama (‘very good relationship’). In fact, in Trump-speak, ‘very good relationship’ means ‘I can’t stand him/her.’ Boris Johnson is a different matter. ‘Boris Johnson is a friend of mine,’ said the President this morning.

You couldn’t get a stronger contrast between the new Foreign Secretary and his predecessor. Jeremy Hunt is a minister who has earned the absolute trust of two Prime Ministers in an extremely politically charged job. He was brought in by David Cameron to clear up the mess after Andrew Lansley’s Health and Social Care Act disaster, and Theresa May kept him in place, quickly learning that he was one of the few ministers she really could leave to their own devices. This was a huge accolade from May, given her propensity to micromanage. Hunt earned that trust because he is a very loyal Cabinet minister. He does not style himself as an operator, unlike many of those he has served alongside.

From the flurry of joint op-eds from Cabinet Ministers today, you might be forgiven for thinking that the Chequers deal is the deal. But, of course, it is not. Rather, it is the UK’s government opening position in the negotiation on the future relationship. So, logically, you would expect the government to have to make more concessions. The problem for the ministerial Brexiteers is that what the EU is likely to demand will make the deal much more difficult to defend. Take, for instance, parliament’s role in having to pass any changes to the so-called ‘common rulebook’ between the UK and the EU. Number 10 likes to talk about this as a ‘parliamentary lock’ on any changes that could be detrimental to the UK.

Tory MPs and ministers have consistently under-estimated their leader. What Theresa May achieved at Chequers yesterday was extraordinary. She persuaded her cabinet to sign up for a Brexit plan that drives a coach and horses through what the Brexiters in her team – especially Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – said Brexit was all about, during that historic referendum campaign. What is more, at Chequers yesterday, Gove was a cheerleader for a plan that would enshrine in treaty what is supposedly anathema to his Brexit cause – that the UK now and forever would be subject to European Union rules and regulations governing the quality and safety of the goods we make and buy and also the food we produce and consume.