Theresa may

Faced with a choice between a humiliating defeat or moving a vote in order to delay a humiliating defeat, Theresa May has plumped for the latter. This morning, cabinet sources say the Prime Minister made the decision to delay the vote on her Brexit deal. Despite No.10 insisting repeatedly this morning that the vote would go ahead on Tuesday, the scale of defeat appears to have become too much and there are now plans to try and shelve it. Cabinet sources suggest that the vote will be moved to January. The vote could still go ahead if May's opponents find a procedural ruse by which to thwart the government.

On Tuesday, MPs will face something rare: a Commons motion which really does deserve to be described as momentous. It will set Britain’s place in Europe and in the world for years to come. The vote will place an especially heavy burden on Conservative MPs, for they have the power to inflict a hefty defeat on their own government, an administration which has no majority and which governs thanks only to a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP. It is all too easy to see where defeat on Tuesday could lead: to the collapse of the government, a general election and the arrival of Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. Theresa May’s deal has been rejected by MPs on the left and the right, by radicals and moderates.

No-go-day was meant to be yesterday, I say in The Sun. This was the moment when the Department for Exiting the EU wanted the principal purpose of government to become getting the country ready for leaving the EU regardless of whether there was a deal or not. Number 10 argued that a vaguer deadline of late November / early December was better. They thought that this would give more time to tell whether full on ‘no deal’ prep was necessary or not. But now, Number 10 is indicating that it wants to hold off until after the meaningful vote on the 11th of December. This is not a good idea, though. Those inside the machine estimate that it would take four months of intense preparations to get this country into a place where it could make no deal manageable.

Theresa May has two weeks to sell her deal to MPs ahead of the meaningful vote on Tuesday 11 December. The fact that Philip Hammond used an interview this morning meant for selling the deal to state that at present there was no consensus in favour of it tells you everything you need to know about how that is going. There are gloomy estimates that the government could lose the vote by as much as 200 – that seems steep but a defeat around the 100 mark is beginning to seem likely. So, how does No.10 plan to turn things around? There's a special Brexit grid which will see a topic focus for each day – economy, security, trade – in the build up. Perhaps the most striking part of the Downing Street campaign is the mooted TV debate. No.

Donald Trump has always been consistent on Brexit. He admired the spirit of the vote, a freedom-loving people defying their elites, as his deplorables would go on to do. He likes Britain. He dislikes the EU, which he has always regarded as a sort of protection racket for German manufacturing and an institution that gets in the way of his golf course development. Ever since Trump’s inauguration, he has made it clear that America is ready to give Britain the ‘beautiful’ free trade deal that so excites Brexiteers. But he and his advisers have been consistently disappointed by May’s insistence that she must stick by E.U. terms and regulations at the expense of improving and deepening the UK-US relationship.

Tory MPs offered a warmer reception to Theresa May's statement in the Commons this afternoon than they managed during yesterday's Prime Minister's Questions. The Prime Minister herself seemed very confident as she explained today's political declaration to MPs. That's about as far as you can go when looking for signs of success in this afternoon's Commons Brexit drama. For instance, straight after the statement, we received confirmation from Iain Duncan Smith that he and other Brexiteers do still find the Brexit deal unacceptable and will kill it in the Commons.

MPs and ministers who had settled down in Parliament on Tuesday evening for a late night of votes on the finance bill were given an early reprieve – all votes were off. However, rather than an early Christmas present from No.10, the shelving of votes on the finance bill was down to a reason out of Theresa May's control: no working majority. With the DUP abstaining for a second day over grievances with the EU withdrawal text, the government decided to concede all amendments to the bill – including one from the SNP. It's not clear they would have lost on every single amendment but after the antics of Monday (when the DUP voted with Labour but not enough Labour MPs turned up to secure victory), all opposition MPs were on standby to try and inflict a defeat on the government.

Is Theresa May about to face a vote of no confidence in her leadership? The Prime Minister is acting as though nothing has changed, to coin a phrase, focusing on selling her Brexit plan to business leaders at the CBI, rather than getting too bogged down with the internal problems with her party. But those trying to organise the move against her had been making noises all day that they may have the requisite number of letters calling for such a vote by this evening. This doesn’t look like it’s going to be the case. Indeed, today a number of Brexiteers including Owen Paterson and Iain Duncan Smith have been holding talks in Number 10 along with David Trimble about a proposed solution to the Brexit deal that might prevent a leadership contest.

Theresa May's problems have not let up over the weekend. With speculation mounting about an impending confidence vote, the Sunday papers are filled with reports of leadership rivals sounding out colleagues while Dominic Raab – the former Brexit Secretary – has used an interview to tell May to stand up to Brussels' bullies (though he has since told Andrew Marr he will still back the PM in any confidence vote). Appearing on Ridge on Sunday this morning, May tried to make the case for both her Brexit deal and her premiership continuing. She said that as far as she knew the 48 letters required for a confidence vote were not in.

Is a deal better than no deal? In a bid to answer that question, Mr Steerpike published a list of the 40 horrors buried in the small print of Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Downing Street have since been in touch to put forward their own 40 rebuttals to those 40 horrors (we'll respond on Monday). No.10's points are in italics. After reading this list, why not try Mr Steerpike's 40 rebuttals to No.10's 40 rebuttals here. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The supposed ‘transition period’ could last indefinitely or, more specifically, to an undefined date sometime this century (“up to 31 December 20XX”, Art. 132).