Swing states

Welcome to Thunderdome. The Republican Party has new leadership, with North Carolina GOP chairman Michael Whatley and daughter-in-law of the former president Lara Trump taking over an organization that will, in reality, be run by Chris LaCivita. They’ve already made one controversial but wise decision in demurring on the hiring of Scott Presler, a ballot harvester popular with the MAGA crowd. But they now confront the harsh reality of the RNC’s fundraising woes: they’re well behind the Joe Biden campaign and the DNC. The Democratic president’s campaign account officially reported taking in $21 million in February, according to its report filed with the Federal Election Commission late Wednesday, ending the month with $71 million cash on hand.

The polls are predicting Donald Trump will lose in November — again. Is it worth paying them attention? Pollsters have adjusted their models to try to avoid the mistakes of 2016, but the COVID-19 pandemic leaves little room for certainty. The problem in 2016 was an overall lack of polling in battleground states — especially polls with more rigid, proven methods. Courtney Kennedy, director of survey research at Pew Research Center, told The Spectator she’s noticed a significant increase in battleground state polling from reputable organizations. ‘This doesn’t mean that the state polling in 2020 is infallible or that the small leads in some states are sure sign of victory,’ she said.

Swing state season, that three- to four-month stretch of peak American crazy, is upon us. The big three states — New York, California and Texas — are often considered representative of the American experience, due to their larger-than life branding and enduring economic heft. But, small outlier communities aside, the big three are politically homogeneous and ultimately predictable in their beliefs and voting patterns. That makes them utterly boring and, dare I say, un-American in sensibility come election time. America is a bipolar land of infinite complexity and chaos.