Scottish referendum

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_4_Sept_2014_v4.mp3" title="Isabel Hardman, Fraser Nelson and Hamish Macdonell discuss the referendum" startat=700] Listen [/audioplayer]Let us take a trip to America in 1976. The unelected incumbent president, Gerald Ford, is being challenged for the Republican party’s nomination by Ronald Reagan — and does not take it seriously. Sure, Reagan may have served as governor of California but, still, come on, is this Grand Old Party really going to choose a two-bit B-movie actor as its standard-bearer? And isn’t he the candidate of fruitcakes and loonies? Say what you will about Gerry Ford but you know where you stand with him. But not everyone sees it that way. Reagan is winning in places he shouldn’t have a chance.

“It’s part of the energy of nationalism,” sighed Jim Murphy on Newsnight. “They’re never knocked down.” He’s right, and that that is why the Scottish referendum polls show the gap between the two narrowing - YouGov has that gap at 6 points, down from 22 last month. If even Labour’s Jim Murphy accepts that the momentum is with the nationalists – and says that the momentum is with them because they are nationalists – then it’s a rather depressing state of affairs. Where is the passion and energy of the campaign to save the United Kingdom?

Tonight brings a reminder that the Union is in real danger. A new YouGov poll has the No camp’s lead in the Scottish referendum down to just six points. Just a month ago, No had a 22 point lead with You Gov. This poll is particularly striking as YouGov’s polling has not been as favourable to Yes as that of other pollsters; this is Yes’s highest ever score with YouGov. Particularly worrying is that undecided voters are going Yes by a margin of two to one. If this poll is right about how much the gap has narrowed and the undecideds continue to break in the same way, then this referendum could come down to who has the better ground operation. It is, obviously, only those who live in Scotland who have a vote in this referendum.

The Yes camp is closing the gap. That is the clear message from two new opinion polls published this morning. Both polls – ICM for Scotland on Sunday and Panelbase for the Sunday Herald – show that the undecideds are, at last, starting to make up their minds. But in doing so, the undecideds are going to Yes in greater numbers than they are to No. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/zNI3m/index.html"] That trend is clear, it is helping Yes to close the gap but it has not, as yet, given Yes anything like the support it needs to win the referendum in a month’s time. In the ICM poll, the undecideds are down from 21 per cent in July to just 14 per cent now.

Forget Alistair Darling’s debate victory. Forget the lack of Salmond’s currency ‘Plan B’. Forget the tonne of Scottish ink that savaged Salmond in print this morning (see Alex Massie in today’s Spectator for the best example). No, historians will pin-point today as the moment that Kriss Akabusi saved the union. Awooga, awooga. It has become custom in any public debate these days to draw up a tiresome list of public figures who back one’s cause. ‘Stay Together’, which launched today, and includes celebrities who do not even have a vote in Scotland’s future, is classic of the genre. Akabusi is joined by the likes of Helena Bonham Carter, Bryan Ferry, Parky, a brace of Snows, Mitchell&Webb, Andy McNab and Tani Grey Thompson.

Many people, I’m sure, will already be calling the first TV debate in Alistair Darling’s favour. That is a fair point to make but it was not quite as straightforward as that. I think a truer reflection would be this: Darling won on substance but lost on style, while Alex Salmond won on style but lost on substance. That may seem a bit pedantic, but it matters. First, the question of style: Salmond was – as we knew he would be – calm, composed and articulate. Darling was – as many in his camp feared he would be – anxious, shouty and irritable. The former Chancellor looked nervous. He had trouble getting his message across. Indeed, even his eyebrows kept darting up and down as if constantly looking for a way out.

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP deputy leader, is busy claiming that post the Glasgow games the momentum will be with the Yes side in the referendum. But this claim is contradicted by the Survation poll in today’s Mail on Sunday which shows support for Yes marginally down on last month. The Yes campaign’s last best chance to gain the ‘big mo’ that it needs comes in Tuesday night’s debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling. Alex has written about why he doesn’t think this debate will be a game changer, but with a million Scots expected to tune in, Salmond isn’t going to have a better opportunity to try and turn things round. But the dilemma for Salmond is how to approach this debate.

From now until September 18th, the Scottish referendum will rightly dominate national politics. Tuesday night's debate between Alistair Darling and Alex Salmond is the Yes campaign's last and best chance to gather the momentum it needs to pull off an improbable victory. But, as British Election Survey data shows, the result of the referendum is not a foregone conclusion. If the ‘undecideds’ keep breaking the same way, the result will be No 53.6 per cent, Yes 44.6 per cent. This is too close for comfort. But if Scotland votes No, attention will quickly shift to next May's UK election. It is a sign of how speeded-up our politics has become that David Cameron's political career could be over two years before his 50th birthday.

The future of Britain is at stake, but you wouldn't know it from how ITV is behaving. On Tuesday, STV will broadcast a live debate between Alex Salmond and the leader of the No campaign, Alistair Darling. This promises to be one of the pivotal moments in the referendum campaign.  But, depressingly, the only way anyone outside of Scotland will be able to watch it is on the internet via STV Player. The failure to put it on ITV across the whole of the UK reflects the failure to understand that, while only the residents of Scotland may have vote in the independence referendum, the result will affect all of us. If Scotland votes for independence, the rest of the UK will be much diminished. It won't be Great Britain anymore but little Britain.

In choosing this September for the Scottish referendum on independence, the SNP was presumably hoping Scots voters would be basking in the glory of a successful Commonwealth Games. There is every reason to hope that the games, which opened in Glasgow this week, will emulate the London Olympics for organisational skill and, moreover, will help to sell an often-maligned city to the world. But why does it follow that Scotland needs to be independent of the UK to organise and enjoy such an event? If these games had been marred by pettifogging bureaucracy or financial constraints imposed by Whitehall, or if someone in London had trampled on Glasgow’s bid and put forward London or Birmingham instead, there would be every reason for Scots to feel aggrieved.

There really isn’t much time left. From today, there are just nine and a half weeks until we go to the polls in the independence referendum. Also today, we have the latest ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday. The main figures are: Yes 34 per cent (down two points), No 45 per cent (up two) and don’t know 21 per cent (unchanged). If the don’t knows are excluded, the figures are Yes 43 per cent (down two), No 57 per cent (up two). [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/Z2duc/index.html"] Suddenly, that nine-and-a-half week window looks pretty small for the Yes camp. It means that Alex Salmond and his colleagues have just 66 days to overturn what has become a stubbornly immoveable lead for Better Together. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.

Listen: listen to ‘Spectator debate: independence is the greatest threat to Edinburgh’ on Audioboo.