Presidential election 2024

Welcome to Thunderdome. Tonight I invite you all to tune into a live conversation at 8 p.m. Eastern with Kmele Foster of the Fifth Column on the shifting race, gender and class divides in 2024, part of the Substack Election Dialogues series — more details are here!We’ve already surpassed 8 million early votes in this election, so that means we’re at the beginning of the final rounds with fewer than twenty days to go. For Kamala Harris, she’s still sprinting around with a media tour (well, really only 60 Minutes and last night’s Fox News interview count as media) that she really should have done months ago.

With “Securing Our Borders” signs behind him, President Joe Biden announced this afternoon that he’d sign an executive order to shut down asylum requests at the southern border once the average number of daily encounters hits 2,500. The action is set to come into effect midnight tonight, meaning requests will be shut down until the daily encounter number declines to 1,500. Here’s the math: since April 2020, when the Border Patrol recorded around 16,000 encounters (one of the lowest monthly totals in decades), the monthly number of encounters has surpassed 200,000 on at least ten separate occasions. If asylum requests are frozen when encounters reach 2,500, that means a maximum of 77,500 accepted asylum requests per month.

Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota has thrown his hat into the 2024 presidential election ring, challenging President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination.   Phillips’s candidacy is being heralded by many outlets — and acknowledged by Phillips himself — as a “long shot,” with the New York Times noting Biden’s “significant financial advantages.”   Still, Biden isn’t exactly the obvious choice to represent his party in 2024: Axios reported last month that a CNN poll showed “two-thirds of Democrat-leaning voters say the party should not nominate President Biden for a second term.

Welcome to Thunderdome, where for once the number one story in the political world barely involves Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Instead, the only story anyone’s talking about revolves around Kevin McCarthy and Matt Gaetz, and an act of political assassination that saw eight Republicans cross party lines to join with unanimous Democrats to lop off the head of the party’s speaker and greatest fundraiser. McCarthy as Ned Stark and Gaetz as Joffrey doesn’t track, exactly, since the boy from Bakersfield wanted that job and gave up enormous leverage to get it — but from the moment Gaetz brought the motion, people in Washington assumed that McCarthy would cut a deal with Democrats to survive. But that proved a bridge too far.

Welcome to Thunderdome, where back-to-school airborne illnesses, pumpkin spice lattes and fantasy football drafts herald the return of fall and the point where most normal Americans start actually paying attention to who’s running for president. It turns out there are more people running than Joe Biden and Donald Trump! Who would have guessed? This is because normal people do not have the gaping maw inside themselves, that hole that can never be filled by anything — and they have higher priorities than the unceasing undulating political scrum. There are errands to run and tailgates to plan and pumpkin gewgaws to be purchased from Home Goods. But, in the height of modern convenience, one thing you can do while doing all those things is listen to Thunderdome!

The centrist group No Labels held a coming out party for itself in New Hampshire this week. In an event at St. Anselm College — a regular stop for presidential hopefuls — West Virginia senator Joe Manchin and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman talked up the prospects of a third-party run and the market for a ticket that appeals to the exasperated and underserved middle ground of American politics.  Meanwhile, No Labels is getting more specific about what its approach to 2024 will be. Until this week, the group had been noncommittal about exactly which Democratic and Republican candidates it would challenge, and when it would make a call on entering the race.