Northern ireland

The Times continues its attack on the Tory policy of trying to field candidates in Northern Ireland today. In its leader on the subject, it declares that the Tories should abandon their efforts and that this is relatively easily done as ‘there is no great ideological cause at issue.’ This is wrong. There is a massively important principle at stake here, a party that aspires to govern the United Kingdom should run candidates in all parts of it. To put it another way, the people of Northern Ireland deserve a chance to vote for the Tories. David raises some valid points about the problems the alliance between the Tories and the Ulster Unionists is having.

Yesterday, Gordon Brown was less Macavity, more the Cheshire cat. Now both he and Blair have helped to bring a modicum of peace to Northern Ireland, and Brown was a ubiquitous, beaming presence on the TV throughout the day - jaunty not jowly. Naturally, Brown’s confidence fell victim to the absurdity that lurks behind him like some familiar. Sky Sports News asked him if he thought John Terry should retain the England captaincy. Brown pondered the question - the arguments for and against and the possibility of his bringing peace to Cobham - before conceding that the decision was entirely Capello’s. It was priceless. To suggest that this latest Hillsborough accord is a final panacea is to tempt fortune.

Michael Crick reports that Owen Paterson is seeking an urgent conference with Sir Reg Empey (the UUP leader) after revelations that the UUP held secret talks about a possible electoral pact with the DUP. If the story stands up, the UUP/Tory pro-Union and anti-sectarian alliance is dead. Crick writes: ‘Some in Belfast think that the Conservative-UUP pact is now effectively dead, and that Conservative leader David Cameron will be forced to announce its demise within the next few days.’ It may be that the UUP and DUP merely discussed breaking the deadlock at Stormont.

The prospects of a deal in Northern Ireland seem to be receding. If the talks and, therefore the executive, do collapse, it will show how foolish it was of Jonathan Powell to try for this peace of the extremes. Powell decided that rather than spending hours negotiating with the UUP and the SDLP, the quicker way was to just go round them and deal directly with the extremes  on both ends of the spectrum (though, it is important to remember that however bigoted some DUP members are there is no moral equivalence with Sinn Fein). The theory was that these parties would have more room for manoeuvre as they could not be outflanked. But this has, unsurprisingly, not turned out to be true. The DUP have made the abolition of the parades commission a condition of any agreement.

If Tory policy in Northern Ireland was based around electoral advantage, as their critics have been insinuating these last few days, then they never would have attempted to get a new political force off the ground there. Rather, they would have waited for the election result and then, if necessary, made a deal with a unionist party that could offer them enough support. As the vote on 42 days showed, the DUP is not averse to deal-making. Indeed, until recently it appeared that the Tory approach would cost them if there was a hung parliament as it made the DUP far less inclined to support the Tories, their electoral rivals. The mutterings you hear from the Northern Ireland Office is that the Tories decision to contest seats in Ulster means that they can no longer be seen as impartial.

Over at Three Line Whip, Ben Brogan takes me to task for criticising the Owen Paterson’s attendance at the Marquess of Salisbury’s shindig. ‘But it seems a stretch to lambast Mr Cameron for doing his job as a unionist politician, which should be to find political ways to ensure Sinn Fein doesn’t end up the winner as the result of the failure of Unionism in Northern Ireland to get its electoral act together.’ The Conservatives are a Unionist party so there is no objection to their attending, especially as the Unionist cause is so disorganised. My objection was to its secrecy. Iris Robinson will tell you that there is no such thing as secrecy in Northern Irish politics.

The Robinsons, Peter and Iris, are already in it deep.  But this snippet from Martin Fletcher's column, highlighted by Iain Martin, raises the level of, erm, ordure: "In 2007-08 the pair received a total of £571,939 from [their political] posts. They also use their parliamentary allowances to employ their two sons, daughter and daughter-in-law as aides." The problem, of course, is what happens when greater public disillusionment meets with Northern Ireland's already quite fragile political process.  Seems like a pretty toxic combo to me.

Gordon Brown has just told the House of Commons that he is offering Stormont a financial settlement to increase funds for policing and judicial administration in Northern Ireland. Crucially, future emergency security costs in future will be met by the Treasury, and elements of the complicated settlement will stand until at least 2014.  Northern Ireland has been badly hit by the recession. Power sharing became increasingly fraught as arguments escalated over budget allocations and the timing of judicial devolution. It is not an exaggeration to suggest that the recent escalation of violence might be related to rising unemployment and open political tension.