Liberation Day

Donald Trump's second presidency began with a blaze of executive orders which horrified and impressed in equal measure. It also begged the question: if it really were so easy for a president to circumvent the legal obstacles and assert his will, how come none had behaved in this way before? A year on, we are learning the truth: no, a president can't just do what he likes, and there is a horrible price to pay if he tries. In the case of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs the notional bill is $166 billion. That is the sum that US Customs believes it will have to refund to importers who paid tariffs which were ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court in February. A computer portal to handle the refunds was set up this week, the administration of which adds more cost.

At a rally in Georgia on Thursday night, President Trump declared that he couldn’t wait “forever” for the Supreme Court to rule on the legitimacy of his sweeping tariff policy. Whether or not the court was listening to his complaint, forever arrived today as it handed Trump a thumping defeat. It struck a blow not only for fiscal but also political sanity. Government intrusion upon the free enterprise system is bound to prove inimical to prosperity and liberty The language of the ruling was as lapidary as it was persuasive. “President asserts the extraordinary power to unilaterally impose tariffs of unlimited amount, duration and scope,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the 6-3 opinion.

Who really thought Donald Trump’s America was about to join the stampede of first-world powers promising to recognize Palestine at the United Nations?  "Wow!" He exclaimed this morning on Truth Social. "Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them."  All over the world, commentators convinced themselves that Trump’s expression of concern on Monday about "real starvation" in Gaza meant he was pivoting with global opinion and against Israel.  It turns out, however, that Team Trump is not for turning when it comes to the Middle East. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, has accused the countries now embracing Palestinian statehood of falling for "Hamas propaganda".

The reaction of markets to the US trade deal with Japan shows yet again that if you presage bad news with even worse news you can make people pathetically grateful at the outcome. Shares in Toyota surged by 14 percent at the news. Yet why, when the deal will see imports of Japanese cars to the US slapped with tariffs of 15 percent? Because back on "Liberation Day" in April,  Donald Trump announced that Japanese imports would be subject to 24 percent tariffs. Reactions to Trump’s reset in trade relations with the rest of the world have undergone wild swings in recent months. First, markets plunged.

“TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025,” Donald Trump shared on Truth Social this morning. “There will be no change... No extensions will be granted. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” It’s a rather definitive statement from the President. But we’ve been here before. The original 90-day extension of “reciprocal tariffs” (better described as trade deficit figures with a percentage symbol attached) was also supposed to be a hard deadline. The President suggested only last week that there were no plans to push implementation back again. But here we are: a new date, a new deadline and a mixed market reaction.

How was your Liberation Month? It’s been almost 30 days since Donald Trump stood in the Rose Garden of the White House and announced a shocking set of massive tariffs on the world. The event caused huge convulsions in the economic universe: trillions were wiped off the stock market and, under huge pressure, Trump did agree to a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. After that he exempted electrical goods, though his standard 10 percent remains, and the heads of most financial analysts are still spinning trying to figure out what it all means. Yet for all the angst and the apoplexy, yesterday the S&P 500 index closed just 1 percent down from where it was at the beginning of the month.

On what he called “Liberation Day,” President Trump announced a new tariff schedule. While the markets had been up in anticipation, they are down sharply, with the Dow dropping 2,200 points, perhaps surprised by the extent of them. Basically, Trump has laid tariffs equal to about half what other countries charge on US exports, inviting them to lower theirs in exchange for reciprocity. What the final result will be is anyone’s guess, for the Trump tariffs are chips in a high-stakes game of international poker. They have already had an effect. Canada has promised retaliatory tariffs while Israel has dropped all tariffs on US goods. A tariff is a tax laid on goods passing through a port.

The classical defense of free trade, the one found in Econ 101 textbooks and Ricardo’s comparative advantage model, goes something like this: countries should specialize in what they can produce most efficiently, export the surplus and import the rest. Trade allows global output to increase, everyone gets richer and any government interference – like tariffs or subsidies – just gums up the works. But that’s not the world we live in. David Ricardo, the early 19th-century British economist who developed the theory of comparative advantage, illustrated it with a now-famous example: even though Portugal could produce both wine and cloth more efficiently than England, both countries would benefit if Portugal specialized in wine and England in cloth, then traded.