Labour party

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

Where are Labour’s manners?

For all the feverish political activity in Westiminster today – and beyond the occasional voting reform protest – there’s a strange, impermeable calm to the situation.  Everything is going on behind closed doors, and everyone is remaining relatively tight-lipped.  Signs are, we may have to wait a couple of days before any light breaks through the fog of discussion and counter-discussion.   One thing, though, is already becoming increasingly clear: 13 years of tribalism haven’t done Labour much good when it comes to cross-party negotiations.  There are, of course, the rumours that Gordon Brown had an – ahem – “unconstructive” meeting with Clegg last night.  But I more have in

Martin Bright

Time for a National Government? (Revisited)

If there is one lesson to be drawn from the television debates, it is that people have grown tired of politicians slagging each other off. David Cameron promised an end to “yah-boo” politics, but the institution of parliament makes this near-impossible in practice. However, while parliament is out of action, there just might be the possibility of creating something genuinely ground-breaking: a government of national unity. I first suggested this idea in the New Statesman during the 2008 Labour Party conference: “If the financial crisis is as serious as many in the government suggest, then extraordinary times require bold solutions. There is an argument for saying that the Prime Minister should

David Blackburn

It’s obvious that Brown’s the impediment, why doesn’t Labour strike?

Well, Brown the Statesman was a short-lived incarnation. The BBC reports that Brown and Clegg exchanged ‘angry words’ yesterday evening and that Brown delivered a characteristic private political conversation: ‘a diatribe laced with threats’. Clegg and Brown simply cannot work together. This inability to put aside personal differences is far from magnanimous of both men, but it is plain that Brown no longer commands the authority to shape the nation’s future. If there’s no hope of a Lib-Lab coalition with Brown at the helm, then the knives will be sharpening – again. From Labour’s perspective, delaying the inevitable would be fatal as it gives Cameron more time to negotiate with

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Cameron offers the hand of coalition to the Lib Dems

Woah, I didn’t think Cameron would go that far.  In his statement just now, the Tory leader started off by talking about minority government, as one might expect.  But he soon skipped past that, and onto what sounded like a more formal coalition with the Lib Dems.  He called it the Tories’ “Big Comprehensive Offer”. This offer trumped the one that Brown put forward ealier by virtue of its clarity.  Where Brown had hints and innuendo, Cameron had an itemised list of policies and specifications.  And so the Tory leader set out the areas where he wasn’t willing to compromise with the Lib Dems: Europe, cutting the deficit and immgration. 

Peter Hoskin

Brown sets out his stall for the Lib Dems

Gordon Brown’s statement outside Number 10 just now was a strange mix of statesmanship and salesmanship.  He began by trying to sound as reasonable as possible: claiming that he “understands” why Nick Clegg would like to meet with David Cameron first, and adding that he would happliy wait for them to finish their negotiations.  He claimed that he is keen to “resolve the situation for the good of the country.”  And he mentioned that Alistair Darling would be attending various meetings about the spreading fiscal crisis in Europe. But then, about halfway through, he flipped into used car salesman mode – hawking his rusty party to a sceptical Nick Clegg. 

Peter Hoskin

Nick Clegg gives the Tories the go-ahead

So Nick Clegg has finally spoken – and his words will be welcomed by the Tories.  In an address outside of the Lib Dem HQ on Cowley St, he reiterated his previous argument that “whichever party gets the most votes and the most seats, without gaining a majority, has the first right to form a government.”  But added that “it seems this morning that the Conservative Party have the most votes and the most seats … it is for the Conservative Party to prove that it is capable of governing in the national interest.” What this means in practice isn’t 100 percent certain – although it doesn’t sound good for

Martin Bright

Massive Failure by the Tories and Lib Dems to Manage Expectations

The old political hands in the Labour Party at least knew that they had to talk down their prospects (beyond the usual nonsense about fighting to win). Lord Mandelson was right to fight this election as the underdog because this now looks in some ways like a victory.  In fact this is a massive achievement for the Conservative Party. When David Cameron took over in 2005 many Tories would have settled for this result. They should always have been fighting a two-election strategy. But the Conservative Party allowed itself to get overexcited about the possibility of outright victory. The Liberal Democrats allowed themselves to dream and find themselves bitterly disappointed

Peter Hoskin

Peter Mandelson is open to the idea of Brown going

Peter Mandelson has just tossed a firecracker in to the arena.  Asked on the Beeb whether Labour might get rid of Brown to accommodate the Lib Dems, he replied: “There will be a number of permutations … I’m not ruling anything in, or anything out.” So, in other words: yes.

Peter Hoskin

Let the recriminations begin

Let’s rewind to 10pm yesterday evening, when the exit poll was released.  Most politicos – myself included – were incredulous.  We could just about believe that there might be a hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party, but a reduced number of Lib Dem seats?  After Cleggmania and all those recent opinion polls?  Gedouttahere. But, this morning, that exit poll is looking a good deal more prescient.  After an evening of erratic results, Sky’s projection matches it almost exactly: 309 seats for the Tories, 259 for Labour, and 54 for the Lib Dems.  So we’re on for a hung parliament, and all the backroom discussion and subterfuge that

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Election Night live blog

0843, JGF: The result in Hampstead and Kilburn is remarkable. The local Lib Dems were convinced that they would win. But Glenda Jackson survives by 42 votes with the Tories in second. 0639, PH: A dejected sounding speech from Nick Clegg. 0638, PH: Clegg says “this has been a disappointing night for the Lib Dems – and we obviously didn’t achieve what we hoped to achieve.” 0637, PH: In his acceptance speech, Nick Clegg is going big on the voting problems of last night. 0634, PH: Some good news for the Lib Dems: erm, Nick Clegg holds in Sheffield Hallam. With an increased majority. 0620, JGF: Jon Cruddas holds on,

Peter Hoskin

The party leaders vote

David and Samantha Cameron leaving the polling station in Spelsbury Gordon and Sarah Brown arrive to vote in North Queensferry Nick and Miriam Clegg vote in Sheffield

Martin Bright

Message to the Tories: Grow Up About the New Labour Era

I have been deeply disappointed by Tory negative campaigning in the past few days. The Cameroon coup was inspired, in part, by Tony Blair, so to decry 13 years of New Labour is deeply hypocritical. The message, pioneered by Oliver Letwin, was that praise would be given where it was due. Britain has become a better place since 1997 and that is true for readers of the The Spectator as much as (and perhaps more than) anyone else. At the same time, Brown’s leadership of the country and his party has been woeful. The Labour Party has only itself to blame for this. It should have put up a candidate

Wednesday

Martin Bright

The Labour Party Must Look to the Next Generation Now

I have just watched the last images of the election campaign on the Ten O’Clock News on the BBC. David Cameron was surrounded by some seriously off-putting party apparatchiks (why not choose some of the perfectly presentable and normal-looking young people for CCHQ rather than these awful gargoyles?), meanwhile Gordon Brown was struggling to fill a room and Nick Clegg was being mobbed.  I remember a Labour spin doctor (OK it was Damian McBride) telling me that he knew Gordon could never win a beauty contest against David Cameron. He didn’t seem to have twigged that modern elections are beauty contests – that is one of the reasons Tony Blair

Peter Hoskin

Two more polls point towards a hung parliament

Is this it? A couple more polls have been released, and – like all the others tonight – they point towards a hung parliament. An ICM poll for the Guardian has the Tories on 36 percent (up three points), Labour on 28 percent (no change), and the Lib Dems on 26 (down 2).  And a ComRes effort for the Independent and ITV has the parties on 37, 28 and 28, respectively. Most Tories I’ve spoken with this evening are, they say, mildly pleased with the opinion polls.  Not overjoyed, of course – but they feel their party’s greater firepower in the marginals means that numbers like those above will translate

Peter Hoskin

And now YouGov…

You want more numbers? Well, the YouGov figures for the Sun have just come in, and they are: the Tories on 35 percent (no change), Labour on 28 percent (down two), and the Lib Dems on 28 percent (up 4). So far tonight, all the polls have been in hung parliament territory (on an uniform national swing). And most have Labour and the Lib Dems more or less on level-pegging. More polls here and here.  There’s a good handful still to come, so keep your seat calculators to hand. UPDATE: YouGov also conducted some marginals polling. Here are Peter Kellner’s words from the YouGov website, by way of an explanation:

Peter Hoskin

Times/Populus has the Tories close to a majority

So the Times/Populus results are in, and they have the Tories on 37 percent (up one), Labour on 28 percent (up one), and the Lib Dems on 27 percent (down one). On a uniform national swing, this would leave us in hung parliament territory. But Tories I speak to are pretty confident that numbers like these, if replicated tomorrow, could give them a majority. Elsewhere, TNS-BMRB has the Tories on 33, Labour on 27 and the Lib Dems on 29.  Angus Reed for Political Betting has Tories on 36, Labour on 24, and the Lib Dems on 29.

David Blackburn

Government in waiting?

I’m sceptical of the value of newspaper endorsements. Readers are often irritated by being told which way to jump – if you’ve read the letters page of the Times recently you’ll know what I mean. However, the weight of Fleet Street support for the Tories is significant. In addition to the usual suspects, the Sun, the Times, the Financial Times and the Economist have all defected from New Labour since 2005. Today, the Evening Standard joins them, endorsing the Conservatives in a general election for the first time since 1997. As with the endorsements in the Times, the Economist and the FT, Labour’s exhaustion, Cameron’s comparative vitality and the belief

Peter Hoskin

Brown’s survival instincts

Alas, and most reluctantly, you’ve got to hand it to Brown: he’s a scrapper. Just watching coverage of his speech in Bradford now, and he seems to be on punchy form.  The message is stridently negative, of course.  And he has entrenched himself, as David noted earlier, back behind the old “investment vs cuts” line (although now he calls it “selfish individiualism over public investment”).  But this is clearly where the PM is happiest and at his most comfortable.  Aggressive clunk is simply what he does best. The question hanging over the dying stages of the campaign is this: will the negativity cut through?  Strategists on both sides, for Labour

David Blackburn

EU revises British economic forecasts up

Faisal Islam has the story that the EU has revised Britain’s economic prospects up to 1.2 percent in 2010 from 0.9 percent. Next year, the EU predict to 2.1 percent, the highest of major European nations. Is this a crumb of comfort for Brown? Well yes, but the EU’s predictions are still someway off Alistair Darling’s forecasts. His growth prediction for 2010 is in the region of 1 percent to 1.5 percent, which is closer than his predictions for 2011, when he expects GDP to increase by 3 percent to 3.5 percent. In any event, the upgraded figures are probably too small to shift the polls at this stage. PS:

David Blackburn

Deceitful Brown returns to the old dividing line

Labour’s campaign becomes ever more like The Prisoner. Every time the plot seems decided, it veers-off in the contrary direction. The Prime Minister was interviewed by The Times yesterday and I feel for those who conducted it, stuck in the vortex of what Gordon will say next. If you cast into the recesses of memory, you’ll recall that yesterday morning was tactical voting morning. They were all at it – Balls, Brown, Alexander and Hain. If you’re yellow threatened by blue, vote red; if you’re red threatened by blue, vote yellow. It was so confusing I half expected them to endorse blue if you’re red threatened by yellow. That was