Labour party

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/the-snp-threat-to-westminster/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss the not-very-general election" startat=780] Listen [/audioplayer]There’s normally an easy way to tell which party is losing a general election campaign. Whenever one side starts telling you to ignore the national polls and look at what is happening in certain key seats, it is a sure sign that they are in deep trouble. In this election, however, all the parties are arguing that what’s going on in their target seats matters more than the national polls. No one is keener to dispute the relevance of the national polls than the Liberal Democrats.

After Labour confirmed that they would not reverse Tory art cuts, the luvvies turned on Ed. During a spending plans onslaught from the Tories earlier in the year, the party spin machine proudly boasted: p.44 of Tory dossier says Labour will cancel cuts to the arts budget. We won't. — Labour Press Team (@labourpress) January 5, 2015 Leading to a thorough pasting from all sorts of media darlings: This is not something to brag about. RT @labourpress: p.44 of Tory dossier says Labour will cancel cuts to the arts budget. We won't. — Neil Gaiman (@neilhimself) January 6, 2015 @labourpress And you're proud of that? Jesus. — Simon Blackwell (@simonblackwell) January 6, 2015 .@labourpress why are you proud of this?

Ed Miliband has sent an angry letter to David Cameron this afternoon, demanding that he ‘set out in detail a reform agenda for the EU and a strategy for building the alliances needed to deliver it’. Now, David Cameron is quite used to receiving angry letters about Europe, but mostly they come from members of his own party rather than the leader of the Opposition. But because Ed Miliband has decided that his party’s best business policy is actually the responsibility of his Shadow Foreign Office team, he wants to get in on the angry letter-writing act too. This letter is supposed to highlight that pro-business policy, which is Labour’s opposition to an EU referendum, as well as needling Cameron a bit about whether he really holds enough influence in Europe.

Ten years ago today, Tony Blair’s ban on hunting with dogs came into force. Rural communities had marched, Otis Ferry had stormed the Commons, but none of it made any difference, and anti-hunt campaigners rejoiced when hunting became a banned sport. But though the law has been in place for a decade, the fight for hunting still goes on. Many hunts, especially those based in more urban areas, are still plagued by hunt saboteurs, as was demonstrated just last month when Mike Lane, a Master of the Tedworth Hunt in Wiltshire, was attacked so savagely by saboteurs wielding iron bars that he was knocked out.

Labour’s decision to shy away from an EU referendum has cost it a senior figure. The Telegraph reveals that Harriet Yeo, the former chairman of Labour’s National Executive Committee between 2012 and 2013, has quit the party over Ed Miliband’s refusal to offer a referendum. Although she hasn’t joined Ukip, she will be lending her support to the party at the next election. Nigel Farage is naturally pleased with the news. In a statement this afternoon, he said: ‘A life long Trade Unionist and Labour Party member who served as Chair of Ed Miliband's NEC she is yet another voice calling for Britain to have a choice about its future. We are welcoming support from across the board and Harriet's support is evidence of this.

Ed Miliband appears to have found some safe ground for his party this week, attacking the Tories whenever he can over tax avoidance claims. If he plans to continue on this note, Mr S suggests that he picks his words with more care in the future. Speaking at the Welsh Labour conference on Saturday about his plan to launch an HMRC review, Miliband went off message rather badly. The Labour leader promised to ‘stand up for all those who stand in the way of the success of working families'. That couldn't be what he means, could it?

Last week was Labour’s best of the campaign so far and the Tories’ worst. The row over tax avoidance and Lord Fink’s comments reinforced the damaging perception that the Tories are the party of the rich. It also raised Labour morale, frontbenchers who used to be pessimistic about the party’s electoral prospects are now bullish. But there is a danger that this tactical victory could turn into a strategic defeat. For Miliband by denouncing tax avoidance—which is legal—and setting himself up as a moral arbiter on the issue, has made his tax affairs and those of his shadow Cabinet, MPs and donors a legitimate subject of public interest. They no longer just have to be legal and fully declared, they also have to pass the higher Miliband bar.

Who ends up governing Britain after the election may well be determined by what happens in the Scottish seats. If the SNP take a slew of seats from Labour, it becomes far more likely that the Tories will be the largest party nationally. Add to that the fact that Cameron is the incumbent Prime Minister and he would, in these circumstances, probably be able to put together a deal that sees him carry on as Prime Minister. Labour is acutely aware of this and is busy warning Scots ‘Vote SNP, Get Tory.’ But in this anti-politics era, these squeeze messages don’t work as well as they used to—as the Tories are finding out with their ‘Vote Ukip, Get Miliband’ warnings.

Ed Miliband’s party has ended up having a reasonably good week, even though it’s been a pretty tough battle. Today’s front pages have not been good at all, something the party leader’s supporters are obviously disappointed by, but given the story about a comparison between the row about Lord Fink’s tax affairs and the hacking of Milly Dowler’s phone was made by an aide, not Miliband, and then reported in a way that was initially misinterpreted, the focus of the row is not Miliband himself. The line about Miliband's own tax affairs was inevitable, too. But it depends whether anyone can find anything to continue the story.