Labour party

A common technique in gothic horror novels is to avoid describing whatever monster the author is trying to scare readers with. The imagination is even more powerful than the pen, and silence on the details of the beast means those reading will concoct their own personal nightmare as they read on. This was always the risk with the Tory refusal to set out the detail of the £12 billion of welfare cuts they plan to make in the next Parliament. Ed Miliband is trying to exploit that lack of detail today by launching a ‘dossier’ that sets out the ‘secret plan’ the Tories have on welfare cuts. In his speech this morning, the Labour leader said: ‘Today we show what another five years of Tory government would mean. A Tory secret plan.

I write at a difficult time. The balls are in the air, but we know not where they will land. Perhaps, by the time you get to read this, more will be clear. Right now, however, we know only that Ed Miliband has been interviewed by Russell Brand. We do not yet know what he said. Or what Brand said. Probably he said more. ‘That was interesting enough, but Russell Brand was a bit restrained’ is something that nobody has said, after any conversation, ever. Most likely he’ll have quite liked Ed Miliband. They’ll have friends in common. Probably even girlfriends, what with them both having such voracious sexual appetites.

Two new polls out today have the Tories ahead. Lord Ashcroft's latest national poll says the Conservatives currently have a six point lead at per cent — up two points from last week — while Labour remains on 30 per cent. Ashcroft has Ukip down slightly to 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent. The Guardian/ICM also put the Tories ahead in their new poll today, putting the Conservatives on 35 per cent and Labour on 32 per cent. It's worth noting that both the Ashcroft and ICM polls were conducted by telephone. There are two other polls out today, conducted online, which show the opposite result.  The latest survey from YouGov has Labour two points ahead on 34 per cent, while a new Populus/FT poll has Labour three points ahead on 36 per cent.

The polls could hardly be closer than they are at the moment and the parliamentary arithmetic looks like it is going to be remarkably tight, there’ll be only a few seats in it as to whether it’ll be Cameron or Miliband as Prime Minister. Yet, campaign aides on both sides have been struck by one thing: the large number of undecideds. One recent poll suggested that as many as one in five of those who intend to vote are still undecided. How this group breaks will determine the result. As one close Miliband ally put it to me, ‘The defining moment of this campaign hasn’t happened yet’. The Tory hope is that an unrelenting focus on the economy and the threat it that any Labour SNP arrangement would pose, will nudge these undecideds into their column.

As polling day nears, everyone is trying to work out which way undecided voters will break. Contrary to what many predicted, Labour and Ed Miliband have had a pretty decent short campaign, although this hasn't yet led to a polling lead. But the key question is whether Miliband is winning support from the undecided voters. A recent poll from ComRes showed that the Labour leader isn’t viewed particularly well among this group. 28 per cent said they would want to see David Cameron run the country, compared to 16 per cent for Ed Miliband. This isn’t much of a change since before the campaign began. In March, 12 per cent of undecided voters said they would prefer to see Miliband in charge.