Labour party

There are few quicker ways to annoy an MP than to suggest that they are on holiday when the House of Commons isn’t sitting. Such a suggestion will be met with a tetchy and immediate list of the constituency work they are doing in recess. This week, however, marks the start of the first summer break since the election, so the honourable members should perhaps feel entitled to a rest. Indeed, most MPs who aren’t engaged in a leadership contest will be taking one. As they sink into their deckchairs, they will have plenty to think about. The election might only have been two and a half months ago, but the dynamics of this parliament have changed, utterly. Elections will return soon enough. There will be a Scottish Parliament vote and a London mayoral contest next spring.

Some Labour MPs have been expressing their regret at the fun and games they indulged in to get Jeremy Corbyn onto the leadership contest ballot paper back in the heady days when this was about ‘broadening the debate’, rather than the guy actually having a chance of winning. Now that another poll suggests he could be in with a shot, the fun and games looks rather less fun. That’s why Tony Blair was so forceful this morning, and that’s why MPs such as Tristram Hunt and Chuka Umunna have been so agitated in public about the matter. But those in the party who are horrified that Corbyn is gaining so much traction should be careful of the way they express their alarm.

Could Jeremy Corbyn actually win the Labour leadership race? A new poll from The Times/YouGov suggests that he will. The new poll of eligible voters in the leadership contest — party members, registered supporters and affiliated trade unionists — has Corbyn on track to win in the final round of voting with 53 per cent of the vote, with the current bookies' favourite Andy Burnham trailing six points behind on 47 per cent. The left-wing leadership candidate's lead on first preferences is even more jaw-dropping. YouGov has Corbyn on 43 per cent, compared to Burnham on 26, Yvette Cooper on 20 and Liz Kendall on 11. Based on this, Kendall would be knocked out in the first round and her votes redistributed to other candidates.

The Welfare Reform and Work Bill has, as expected, passed its second reading in the House of Commons, with 48 Labour MPs defying their party whip and voting against, while Harriet Harman and the rest of the party abstained. We will bring you a full list of rebels as soon as it is available and it will be interesting to see how many new MPs (from a rather left-wing 2015 intake) have joined the rebels. The size of the rebellion is not particularly surprising given the number of MPs who had signed up to Helen Goodman’s rebel reasoned amendment (which was not called, and Harman’s official amendment failed to pass, as expected). The row in Labour means that the rebels have had their way, even if they didn’t persuade their leadership to change its stance.

The four Labour leadership contenders took part in another televised hustings today, this time chaired by Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics. With just over 50 days left of this contest, the candidates are now more comfortable in each other’s company and seem much happier to attack each other. Although no one spectacularly won or failed, a few moments did provide some insight into the current state of the race. Here are five key points from today’s hustings. 1. Corbyn is comfortable running as the far left candidate. The rise of Corbynmania has overlooked that he has no frontbench experience and little idea of how to do serious politics.

When George Osborne stepped in for David Cameron at PMQs, it was seen as the Chancellor's chance to show that he had what it takes to be Prime Minister. With that bit of housekeeping done, the Chancellor seemed to let his ambition to move into Number 10 go to his head last night. Osborne broke with tradition by hosting his summer party in the Number 10 garden, rather than the Treasury courtyard. However, as guests wandered through the Number 10 door to raise a glass to the Conservative leadership hopeful, there was one snag. Rather than the usual supply of delicate canapés, hungry hacks were invited to feast on an austerity-friendly spread of Doritos and pretzels. Osborne may be in, but he doesn't have access to the kitchen yet.

The British Election Study is continuing to dig into why the pollsters called the general election incorrectly. Its latest batch of research suggests that the theories of a late swing to the Tories, a shift in the ‘don’t knows’ or 'Shy Tories' emerging on polling day may not hold the answer. Instead, the BES's evidence suggests that ‘lazy Labour’ voters were a significant factor — i.e. those who said they would vote Labour in surveys, but didn’t turn out on polling day.