Labour party

The momentum just keeps building behind Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign for Labour leader. This afternoon, Unison has announced it is backing the veteran socialist’s candidacy, with General Secretary Dave Prentis saying: ‘Jeremy Corbyn’s message has resonated with public sector workers who have suffered years of pay freezes, redundancies with too many having to work more for less.’ Prentis points out that ‘today’s decision is a recommendation and our members are of course free to cast their vote as to who they think should lead the Labour Party’. And indeed the view of the union does not translate to all of its members who are affiliated supporters of the Labour party putting Corbyn first and Cooper second, as Unison has today recommended.

Jeremy Corbyn is still on track to be the next Labour leader, according to leaked private polling. Tomorrow’s Daily Mirror reports that this poll puts Corbyn on 42 per cent of the first preference votes, with Yvette Cooper comes in second place on 22.6 per cent, Andy Burnham on 20 and Liz Kendall on 14. Until now, Burnham’s campaign has maintained their man is the only one who could beat Corbyn after the votes have been redistributed. But the Mirror reports that once Kendall has been knocked out and her second preferences sent to other candidates, it is a dead heat with Corbyn on 51 per cent and Cooper on 49 per cent — both figures within the margin of error.

Keeping Labour grounded to the centre is proving a tough battle for the moderates. Labour First, a pressure group of the old right within the party, has penned a public letter urging the Progress think tank, a voice from the new right, to put aside ideological purity and do whatever it takes to beat Jeremy Corbyn. Progress, which hosted Tony Blair last week, has naturally endorsed Liz Kendall for leader — but it has not instructed moderate voices to put Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper into second and third preferences to stop Corbyn. Labour First thinks this is a folly and urges Progress to take the necessary steps to beat Corbyn: 'Within Labour First we have high profile supporters of each of Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall.

If Jeremy Corbyn becomes the next Labour leader, there will be a lot of finger pointing at Ed Miliband. Today’s Sunday Times reports that 140,000 new members are projected to sign up to vote in the leadership contest — the equivalent of the entire Conservative party. According to the paper, many of these new activists are taking advantage of Miliband's voting reforms and come from hard-left groups. It's a fair assumption to say they are joining to back Corbyn for leader. If this projection turns out to be true, it might explain Corbynmania, as well as raising the possibility that Corbyn might actually win.

Which factions have the most influence in the Labour leadership and deputy leadership contest? The biggest split in the party is between the pressure group Progress and those with links to trade unions. Their respective outlooks are often perceived as being mutually exclusive, and the way the leadership contest is shaping up seems to suggest that this is true. Here is how the party breaks down between those two political poles, both in the 2010 contest and the one taking place currently. Around 80 of the 232 MPs in the Parliamentary Labour Party have taken part in Progress events over the last five years according to its website.

Some Labour MPs have been expressing their regret at the fun and games they indulged in to get Jeremy Corbyn onto the leadership contest ballot paper back in the heady days when this was about ‘broadening the debate’, rather than the guy actually having a chance of winning. Now that another poll suggests he could be in with a shot, the fun and games looks rather less fun. That’s why Tony Blair was so forceful this morning, and that’s why MPs such as Tristram Hunt and Chuka Umunna have been so agitated in public about the matter. But those in the party who are horrified that Corbyn is gaining so much traction should be careful of the way they express their alarm.