Kevin McCarthy

After Kevin McCarthy finally ascended to the heights of the speaker’s chair, it remains to be seen what he actually won on that last fifteenth vote. The number of rules changes and side deals made along the way to please McCarthy's conservative opponents could fundamentally undermine the job of the speakership as we know it — and concessions made to leapfrog individual members into key committee positions could have significant ramifications. Whether that leads to more conservative policymaking depends on which members you ask; many are skeptical the results will be all that different for the House GOP given their slim majority. One question we don't know the answer to yet, and won't know for some time, is how permanent these negotiated changes will be.

Need a hit on Capitol Hill? Take your pick. Members and staffers alike are addicted to Twitter, where they log on for their daily stims of outrage. Cable news has also become a kind of drug, as congressmen stampede to the Fox News and CNN green rooms rather than go about the irritating business of legislating. But if we're looking for a way out of the present congressional gridlock, I think we need to turn to an older and wiser substance. "Alcoholism is as much of an occupational disease among politicians as black lung is among coal miners," Herman Talmadge once wrote. Talmadge, who served as a Georgia senator from 1957 to 1981, would know: he once took a month off from his senatorial responsibilities to get treated for alcoholism.

House Republicans are engaged in what military analysts call a "war of attrition." The winner is the side that can hold out the longest, or convince its opponent that it can. The reason the balloting for speaker has continued for so long is that both sides are trying to convince the other that they won't give in. In wars of attrition, firm resolve wins, but you have to convince your opponent that your resolve is stronger. That is exactly what is happening on ballot after ballot. The whole process is damaging the Republican Party, obviously, but that won't sway individual votes. What will sway them the prospect of members losing support within their own districts, or ending up on the losing side because their compatriots are losing support in their’s and cave.

If there was any question as to how tenuous would-be Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy’s grasp would be on the gavel, then what happened on New Year’s Day should remove all doubt. On Sunday, the House Republican leadership team unveiled significant changes to the House rules in advance of the official swearing-in and start of the 118th Congress. Many of the changes are aimed at improving transparency and governance. But one rule change that could be far more significant was the restoration of the “motion to vacate the chair.” Under the proposed rules package, five members of the majority conference can band together and force a vote of no confidence in the speaker.

Who says Democrats and Republicans can’t find common ground? According to the Senate’s recent approval of the $1.7 trillion omnibus bill, bipartisanship is still possible after all. There’s just something about dumping debt on the American people that brings both sides of the Swamp together. Chalk it up to holiday magic. The bill passed the Senate by a vote of 68-29 and was met with a round of applause from antsy lawmakers determined to get out of DC before the incoming storm. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer heaped praise on soon-to-be retiring Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont for his work on the bill. “What a capstone to a brilliant career,” he gushed.

Cockburn loves a catfight. Especially between Congress’s kookiest chicks, and one time BFFs, Representatives Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene. The congresswomen have been dragged into the increasingly ugly war over whether or not to back Representative Kevin McCarthy for speaker of the House. Boebert pulled the first punch on The Charlie Kirk Show, where she, accompanied by some lawmakers like Representative Matt Gaetz, took a swipe at Taylor Greene for whipping the caucus to vote for McCarthy — who sweet-talked Greene with promises to restore her House committee assignments. "I've aligned with Marjorie and been accused of believing a lot of the things that she believes in," said Boebert.

All that Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy wants for Christmas is the four votes he needs to hold the gavel as speaker of the House of Representatives. But at this point it looks like it will take a Christmas Miracle™. This past week, five members of the contrarian House Freedom Caucus restressed their antipathy for McCarthy. Representatives Andy Biggs, Ralph Norman, Matt Gaetz, Bob Good and Matt Rosendale have promised as a bloc to vote against McCarthy, denying him the 218 votes he needs to become speaker. Biggs ran against McCarthy for Republican majority leader after November’s lukewarm midterm elections — and lost. He knows he is playing spoiler. But what then?

Even doomed political campaigns throw victory parties — or pretend to. No-hope candidates have to keep up the pretense that they’re in with a chance — right down to the election-night canapés. On election night last month, a gathering of Republicans at a hotel in downtown Washington was set to be the real deal. To the assembled RNC employees, Hill staffers and assorted hangers-on, winning was a certainty and they were ready to celebrate. “Take back the house,” read the banners on the ballroom wall. The anticipatory chatter was of the margin of victory. All of which is to say, the crowd was confident. None more so than the party’s host. For Kevin McCarthy, November 8 was set to be more than just a very good night for his party.

The GOP will take control of the House of Representatives in January. Beyond the current debate over who will lead the party's new majority — will Representative Kevin McCarthy become speaker? — Republicans have to determine which wars to wage with the Democrat-controlled Senate. Chief among these will be budgetary battles. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday that it's likely Congress will pass a short-term continuing resolution to fund the government until January, rather than the larger ominous bill floated by Democrats that would last until the end of the fiscal year. This means the newly GOP-controlled House will be thrust into a debate over the federal budget immediately after taking office. Luckily, they don't have to start from scratch.

The GOP absolutely blew a historic opportunity in the 2022 midterms and, sadly, it seems nothing in the party will change. For all the talk of accountability and blame last week, many in the GOP now seem content to just… move on. All eyes have turned to the 2024 presidential nomination with former president Donald Trump’s announcement Tuesday night that he would be running for a third time. Trump’s rally handed the establishment a welcome distraction from their own failures in the midterms; now, the debate is over how badly Trump hurt the party with his endorsements and whether or not he and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will officially go to war. The party — and more importantly the voters! —  should decide if they still want Trump to be their leader.