Jobs

Inside the real jobs crisis

After much talk of an economic slowdown, February brought reassuring headlines. The official unemployment rate had fallen as another 130,000 jobs were added to the US economy, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is good news, but it is not the whole story. The official unemployment rate counts only people actively looking for work – it does not capture those who would like a job but have stopped searching. The official unemployment rate is so narrow that it hides long-term changes in the economy. In fact, things are far worse than the official figures suggest. This matters for more than just economists. We tend to treat employment statistics as dry indicators that exist in spreadsheets and quarterly results.

jobs labor

Trumponomics is working

Remember the old quip about economists? “That’s all very in practice,” they say, “but how does it work out in theory?” Nobel laureate Paul Krugman of the New York Times is a splendid example of that sort of folly. On the evening of November 9, 2016, Krugman skirled that the election of Donald Trump would precipitate economic Armageddon. “If the question is when markets will recover,” he said, “a first-pass answer is never.” How could they recover since the nation had just elected an “irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people,” that is to say, he didn’t take advice from people like Paul Krugman.Reality check: the day Krugman wrote that, the market closed at 18,589. In the last few days the Dow broke 50,000.

Trump

Trump flips off Ford worker – and boasts about revving the US economy

“This is the easiest speech to make,” President Trump was saying. “We have great people. And all I’m doing is spewing off what the hell we’ve done.”No speech is particularly hard to make for this President. He loves speaking. He would speak to an empty room, a kindergarten class, or a blank wall. In this case, he was speaking to the Detroit Economic Club after a nice tour of a Ford F-150 plant. During the tour, a Ford worker – who almost certainly no longer has a job – yelled "pedophile protector" at Trump, who yelled back "f--- you" twice and flipped the guy the bird.  After that, Trump, who, after all, is just like us, headed off to talk to the swells. "Isn't it nice to have a President who can go off teleprompter?

Trump

Could a degree make you less employable?

From our UK edition

A few years ago my employer, the advertising agency Ogilvy, introduced a recruitment scheme called ‘The Pipe’. It was a ‘non-graduate’ recruitment scheme, the name a pun on the smoking implement of choice of the company’s founder, David Ogilvy. Ogilvy himself was kicked out of Oxford in 1931, so this seemed doubly appropriate. The idea was conceived and promoted by two people in our creative department alarmed by the risk of monotone uniformity which results from formalised, risk-averse recruitment procedures. Our aim, in short, was to introduce a kind of stereophonic sound to hiring. Just to be clear, we did not exclude university graduates from applying: it was simply that a degree was not mandatory.

Will members of the intellectual class let AI rot their brains?

An adage dating at least from my adolescence: “You either use it or lose it.” This bit of folk wisdom, which refers principally – or so I understand – to the male procreative organ, has always been considered so obvious as to hardly need stating. Thus the recent discovery that the same principle goes for another human organ – the brain – should not surprise anyone.

labor

Labour isn’t working

From our UK edition

Labour: the clue should be in the name. In March, Keir Starmer branded Labour the ‘party of work’. If ‘you want to work’, he declared, ‘the government should support you, not stop you’. Even as his premiership staggers from crisis to crisis, that mission remains. If Labour doesn’t stand for ‘working people’ – however nebulously defined – it stands for nothing. As such, this week’s unemployment figures are more than just embarrassing for Starmer; they are a betrayal of his party’s founding purpose. Unemployment has risen to 5 per cent – its highest rate since February 2021, in the middle of the third lockdown.

Don’t bet on the Trump economy

The Trump White House took a victory lap on Monday, declaring in its newsletter that the American economy is back – back bigger and better than ever. Core inflation is down. Industrial production is up. Claims for unemployment dropped. Tariff revenue rose. The newsletter even cites the Wall Street Journal—otherwise in bad odor in the Trump White House – for decreeing that the American economy is “regaining its swagger.” Is it time to splurge on a fancy vacation? As it happens, I’m currently visiting Vermont where the number of tourists is distinctly lower than in previous years.

Economy

The left-wing case for controlled immigration

From our UK edition

Controlled immigration was once a left-wing cause. It was a basic tenet of trade unionism – not to mention economics – that the number of workers in a labour market dictates the rate of pay. When more and more people compete for the same jobs, employers can cut wages. Those who care about profits rather than wages tend to be in favour of more migration. The capitalist will always dream of importing huge numbers of workers from countries with much lower wages, knowing they can be used to drive down rates of pay and improve profits. The rules of labour supply and demand remain just as true today, but it is no longer a prominent part of Labour thinking.

Letters: Donald Trump’s messiah complex

From our UK edition

He’s not the messiah Sir: To Freddy Gray’s meticulous dissection of Trumpian chaos theory (‘Shock tactics’, 12 April) I would add one element: religion. Donald Trump seems to believe the blood he spilt in the failed assassination attempt anointed him his country’s Redeemer: ‘I was saved by God to make America great again.’ Messiahs look to a higher authority than rational argument. Whatever ideas pop into the President’s head he judges right by definition. Tariffs will achieve miracles and wars will cease at his command. There is a strong Gnostic element to this cult, its followers believing Trump has some secret knowledge guiding his apparently wayward actions. To keep him in check, the rest of us will have to put our trust in the bond markets.

Confessions of a middle-class jobseeker

From our UK edition

Having been made redundant from a job in the City, I could have afforded not to sign on at all. But since my P45 showed I had paid well over £40,000 in income tax last year, I didn’t feel desperately guilty about clawing back £90 a week in New Style Jobseeker’s Allowance. I didn’t know how long I would remain unemployed. Plus I wanted to protect my national insurance to keep my entitlement to the state pension. The chaos started almost immediately. I registered online in early February and was told to await a date for my ‘assessment interview’. Instead, a month later, a letter arrived to say I had missed my appointment and to ring the helpline to rearrange. The number at the top of the letter? Tel: 0000 000 0000.

Hunter pleads guilty to tax charges

President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden pleaded guilty in federal court Thursday to tax charges in a last-minute reversal of his previous not guilty plea. The younger Biden was accused of failing to pay taxes on his lucrative business — often foreign — ventures and accepted guilt on all nine charges. There was no deal with prosecutors; Biden will not receive a reduced fine or sentence for his change of hear, instead explaining that he merely wanted to avoid putting his family through additional scrutiny like that of his Delaware gun trial.  “I will not subject my family to more pain, more invasions of privacy and needless embarrassment,” Biden said in a statement. Biden’s lawyers acknowledged that there was enough evidence to convict him in a trial.

Dear Mary: how should I thank a friend for dead flowers?

From our UK edition

Q. I left fashion school last year and since then I’ve spent most of my time applying for jobs and being rejected. (That’s only if they’re kind enough to send a rejection – most simply ghost me.) I finally have a job (the company does fast fashion) but when I tell my friends, who are all recent graduates, they mostly say: ‘Well I’m happy if you’re happy but I could never work for such an unethical brand.’ How should I reply without sounding unethical myself? – C.P., London SW18 A. Next time you meet with this response you can test the naysayers’ pomposity by replying: ‘Oh that’s a shame. Because they were asking me if I knew of any other talented young designers who were looking for work.’ Q.

Where to find self-esteem

It’s a month before publication day for my second book, Second Class: How the Elites Betrayed America’s Working Men and Women. I start an Instagram account in the hopes of drumming up interest in the book on a new platform. I post a few clips of TV hits from recent weeks and follow a few friends. Instagram immediately recommends an article about how to grow your Instagram following, and I click on it and learn that consistency is key on Instagram. Roger that. Later that day, I find myself arranging my overachiever elder millennial self into an artfully nonchalant pose while stirring a lamb curry I’m whipping up for my regular Shabbat dinner salon. “There once was a Batya,” my husband mutters on his way to the fridge. “Now there’s a content creator.

class

How AI helps the tech giants

Artificial intelligence (AI) and its related technologies — machine learning and the metaverse — represent a watershed in the evolution of the global economy. Like other such shifts, its emergence is likely to favor certain interests, notably a handful of technology giants, the media and a small cadre of highly skilled programmers. Everyone else faces economic danger, certain to roil domestic and international politics in coming years. Eighty-two percent of millennials fear AI will reduce their earning ability — and they are right to be worried. The first group to lose will be the usual suspects: factory and warehouse workers as well as professionals with largely routinized occupations suited to automation.

ai

America is forgetting how to make stuff

Articles about the future and “progress” have been popping up a lot lately, with conversations revolving around the inevitable advancements in technology and automation. Where we should head next is the collective theme. To the metaverse? To outer space itself? But instead of setting our sights on colonizing Mars or creating a perfect alternate reality, we should slow our roll, focus on the here and now and consider whether the frenzied “progress” we’re in such a rush to make has demonstrated any benefit to real-life people. Manufacturing is a good place to start. Let this startling reality sink in, reported in 2017 by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development: Between 2000 and 2010, US manufacturing experienced a nightmare.

‘Rescinded’: LinkedIn users are listing their retracted job offers

Cockburn was on one of his regular jaunts through LinkedIn this week, on the lookout for more gainful employment than the Speccie currently offers him. During his perusal, one word kept catching his eye on the profiles of other users: “Rescinded.” Prospective employees are deciding to denote when a company had made them a job offer — and then changed their mind after a change in corporate hiring plans. The cryptocurrency wallet company Coinbase appears to be one of the biggest offenders. Ashutosh, a software engineer, posted the following: After considering several factors, I had chosen to join Coinbase over pursuing a PhD.

rescinded linkedin

Is stagflation in America’s future?

All is not well with the economy. It’s true that 390,000 jobs were added last month, exceeding estimates, while hourly income is up 5.2 percent since May 2021. However, analysts guessed unemployment would drop a tenth of a percent, which didn’t happen. Gas prices keep rising, as GasBuddy.com reports a 43 cent jump over this time last month. It’s enough of a problem that OPEC has agreed to increase production in July and August. The economy remains stricken by inflation, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issuing a mea maxima culpa earlier this week. “I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take," she told CNN on Tuesday.

Is Britain’s economy being starved of talent?

From our UK edition

How is the Prime Minister’s bid to turn Britain into a high-wage economy progressing? It couldn’t be going better just at the moment, to judge by a survey by IHS Markit for KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation. In September – data was collected between the 13 and 24 September – there was a sharp rise in hiring, while starting salaries were rising at their fastest pace in the 24 years in which the survey has been undertaken. The number of permanent as well as temporary appointments was high, although the latter fell back from a record high in August. The survey suggests that the jobs market turned in February and has been strong ever since then. Is the boon in wages really such good news for the economy?

Wanted: an assistant online editor for The Spectator

From our UK edition

The Spectator is growing fast. In the last few years, our sales have doubled and are now over 100,000. Most of our readers now turn to our website regularly, some several times a day, for analysis of the day’s events. What started out as a blog has now become a seven-day live digital comment operation and we’re recruiting accordingly. We have come far with a three-person digital team. We’re now looking for a fourth, full-time assistant online editor (to work with us here in 22 Old Queen Street) and also experienced journalists who may be available for shift work, either in the office or remotely.

Biden’s dismal jobs report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its August jobs report this morning and the numbers are pretty dismal. While the unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percent to 5.2 percent, the number of new jobs created was only 235,000, far below expectations of about 700,000. In June the number was 962,000 and in July a whopping 1.1 million. And the unemployment was not spread evenly across the population. Unemployment went down for adult men and whites, but black unemployment went up significantly, from 8.2 percent in July to 8.8 percent in August. The surge in the Delta variant of the coronavirus is widely thought responsible.