Jerome Powell

Iran isn’t Trump’s only ‘imminent threat’

President Trump thought it would be a cakewalk. Far from capitulating, his nemesis seems to be on the comeback trail. Gabbard acknowledged that there was no compelling evidence that Iran was seeking to reconstitute its nuclear program Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell thus announced on Wednesday that unless a successor is confirmed by the Senate, he has “no intention of leaving.” The bad news keeps mounting for Trump. Inflation is ticking up, King Charles’ upcoming visit is starting to look rather iffy, the President's gilded ballroom project looks as though it will be smacked down by a federal judge, and energy prices are rising precipitously.

What to make of Kevin Warsh

The news broke this morning that Donald Trump has, after considerable deliberation, settled on Kevin Warsh as his nominee to replace Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve. "I have known Kevin for a long period of time," said Trump, on Truth Social. "There’s no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best." "On top of everything else," added the Commander-in-Chief, "he is 'central casting' and he will never let you down." The use of the phrase "central casting" shows Trump’s reality TV brain at work. The President likes people in major government positions who look the part on screen. Inevitably, senior Democrats are attacking Warsh’s nomination as Trump’s "latest attempt to seize control of the Fed.

Is the Supreme Court poised to protect the Fed from Trump?

Rarely has the ideologically divided US Supreme Court seemed so much on the same wavelength. And that is not good news for President Trump.In arguments Wednesday in a case that centers on President Trump’s authority to fire members of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, both Republican and Democratic appointees suggested giving the president unfettered control would harm financial markets and damage public confidence.“Your position – no judicial review, very low bar (for dismissal) and that the president alone makes the determination – would weaken if not shatter the independence of the Federal Reserve,” said Justice Brett Kavanaugh in an exchange with US Solicitor General John Sauer, representing the Trump administration.

Lisa Cook

The trouble with Jerome Powell

Lost in the hysterical media bleating about a new criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is any attempt to report fairly on his alleged transgressions. The singular lens through which the investigation is being reported in many openly and not-so-openly left leaning outlets is that it is Donald Trump's revenge after Powell refused to do as instructed and lower interest rates But the aperture needs to be widened to see the full picture: the case is about more than the Chair of the Federal Reserve not bending the knee. It is about Powell's competency as the nation’s chief money man after presiding over the central bank’s vast and scandalous renovation project – that started at $1.9 billion, now stands at $2.

Powell

Can Trump fire Lisa Cook for cooking the books?

President’s Trump’s efforts to reign in the administrative state and prod the Federal Reserve to adopt more Trumpian policies took a dramatic turn when he ousted Dr. Lisa D. Cook, an alleged miscreant, from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors last week. The drama, and there’s always high drama in Trump World, unfolded after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte made a criminal referral to the U.S. Department of Justice based on Cook’s apparently falsified mortgage documents for homes in both Ann Arbor, Michigan as well as Atlanta, Georgia. Cook claimed the Ann Arbor house as her primary residence, which would allow her to obtain more favorable financing terms. Just two weeks later, Cook claimed her Atlanta condominium as her primary residence as well.

Lisa Cook

Don’t bet on the Trump economy

The Trump White House took a victory lap on Monday, declaring in its newsletter that the American economy is back – back bigger and better than ever. Core inflation is down. Industrial production is up. Claims for unemployment dropped. Tariff revenue rose. The newsletter even cites the Wall Street Journal—otherwise in bad odor in the Trump White House – for decreeing that the American economy is “regaining its swagger.” Is it time to splurge on a fancy vacation? As it happens, I’m currently visiting Vermont where the number of tourists is distinctly lower than in previous years.

Economy

Trump should bring the Fed to heel

President Trump’s criticism of Jay Powell has increasingly triggered calls for the Federal Reserve’s independence. But those defending Powell’s autonomy are making ahistorical claims about the Fed’s relationship to the executive and legislative branches of government: the Fed has never been independent. The president appoints the Fed’s chairman. The bank enjoys broad authority to implement the policies necessary to achieve its mandates of stable prices, full employment and interest-rate stability, but these objectives are defined by Congress and could be altered by Congress. Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913 and has amended the Federal Reserve Act more than 200 times. It could do so again.

jerome powell

How much hope did Trump offer Meloni?

In early March Donald Trump said Elon Musk was doing “an amazing job.” Last week he said Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan was doing an “excellent job.” On Thursday it was the turn of Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni during her meeting at the White House. Trump declared that she was “doing a fantastic job.”  What Trump found so fantastic was never specified, but he tossed a variety of bouquets in Meloni’s direction. Not least was his vow that “there will be a trade deal, 100 percent” with the European Union. It was qualified, however, by Trump’s claim that he’s in no rush to strike a deal with Ursula “the West no longer exists as we knew it no longer exists” von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission.

meloni

Trump should have the power to fire the Fed chair

The Chair of the Federal Reserve is arguably the most powerful economic official in the United States. He’s also the least accountable. He sets borrowing costs for households and businesses, opens lending windows to banks deemed “too big to fail,” and decides when to tame or ignite inflationary forces. Unlike the Treasury Secretary or even the President himself, he answers to no one. That may soon change. In Trump v. Wilcox, the Supreme Court is weighing whether the President should be allowed to remove the head of an independent agency.

Fed

Trump spars on stage with black journalists in Chicago

“I don’t think I’ve ever been asked a question in such a horrible manner,” Donald Trump began at this afternoon’s National Association for Black Journalists annual convention in Chicago. ABC News’s Rachel Scott had asked why black voters should trust him in light of his prior attacks on black journalists. “First question, you don’t even say ‘hello, how are you?’” Trump continued. “Are you with ABC? Because I think they’re a fake news network, a terrible level.” Trump went on query his opponent Kamala Harris’s racial ethnicity when asked about her being a DEI hire. “I didn’t know she was black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn black. She was always of Indian heritage and she was only promoting Indian heritage.

Powell pays for past mistakes

Powell pays for past mistakes In the summer of 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell could not have been clearer. “We’re not thinking about raising rates,” said Powell, before doubling down: “We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.”   Things, as we now know, turned out a little differently. The months marched on, and with the Biden administration determined to spend, spend, spend, inflation went from “high class problem” to “transitory” to the biggest problem facing the US economy. Powell and his Fed colleagues went from not thinking about thinking about raising rates to, well, raising rates. From virtually zero around this time last year to 4.75 percent as of January.

jerome powell

The government didn’t miss inflation, they ignored it

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell looked calm when he testified before the Senate Banking Committee in February 2021. He’d just been asked by the folksy Louisiana senator John Kennedy whether he had concerns about the dollar supply being the highest it had been since 1946. “Right now, I would say the growth of M2, which is quite substantial, doesn't really have important implications for the economic outlook,” Powell stated. “M2 was removed some years ago from the standard list of leading indicators, and just that classic relationship between monetary aggregates and economic growth in the size of the economy, it just no longer holds. We've had big growth of monetary aggregates at various times without inflation, so something we have to unlearn, I guess.

interest inflation

What does the Fed’s interest rate hike mean?

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 percent last week, the first increase since December 2018. Back then, Donald Trump had been very vocal in his criticisms of the Fed and its chair Jerome Powell, demanding no more rate increases. There was no resistance from the White House this time with press secretary Jen Psaki saying that the Biden administration respected the Fed’s independence. Powell called the rate increase necessary due to inflation coupled with rising prices. “As we emphasize in our policy statement, with appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, we expect inflation to return to 2 percent while the labor market remains strong,” said Powell, before warning that it will take longer than expected for inflation to sink.

interest inflation

The inevitable return of inflation

The Labor Department reported this week that the December inflation rate hit 7 percent on an annualized basis, the highest since 1982. That was when the country was just beginning to recover from the inflation of the 1970s, the highest peacetime inflation in the nation’s history. The inflation rate for the last three months of 2021 was 9.1 percent. The price of gasoline is up almost 50 percent over a year ago, used cars are up 37 percent and furniture is up 17 percent. Shortages cause by supply-chain disruptions are partly responsible for the upsurge (supermarket shelves have been notably empty in recent days). As grocery and food workers return to work after the latest surge of Covid, those prices should begin to drop.

inflation

The Federal Reserve is still political

President Joe Biden’s re-nomination of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman came as no surprise to financial analysts. Powell remained the most likely candidate given his ability to schmooze and glad-hand with politicians within and outside the administration. He earned the title of “best bureaucrat in Washington, DC” by receiving endorsements from both National Review and the American Prospect despite their divergent policy views. A corresponding vote in the Senate seems preordained, unless Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren gets her way and forces a new pick. “Reappointing Powell is the safest route here,” the Cato Institute’s Norbert Michel told me in an email after Powell’s nomination on Monday.