George osborne

By her usual standards, Harriet Harman was quite effective in her response to George Osborne's Budget earlier.  She was clear, direct and had a few gags at Vince Cable's expense.  And she also benefitted from what, on the surface, was a strong central attack: the Office for Budget Responsibility, she said, has downgraded its jobs forecasts on the back of the Budget.  And so, she followed, this is a Budget which destroys jobs. But there were a few things that Harman wasn't letting on.  First, as Jim Pickard points out at the FT, the OBR forecasts haven't shifted by all that much from their previous incarnation.  And, second, they are still more optmistic than most independent forecasts (conveniently collected by the Treasury here).

I’m quite optimistic about George Osborne’s budget – in the same sense that one might have been optimistic when Churchill took over from Chamberlain. Not because the situation is good, or because you think the road ahead will be easy or enjoyable, but because the road no longer leads to disaster. Not that Osborne is a Churchill – even though he will have his own fair share of blood, sweat toil and tears for us on Tuesday. I’m pretty confident he’ll head in the right direction, and at the right speed. I discuss this in my News of the World column today, but will say a little more here: 1. This Budget will probably mark the point when the UK started to recover. For two months now, the economic data has been favourable.

Alistair Darling has just forced George Osborne to the dispatch box to explain the regulatory measures that he will announce at Mansion House later today. Osborne confirms that some powers will return to the Bank of England and that an independent commission, under Sir John Vickers, will take into account competing views on capital, leverage and liquidity requirements. Retail and investment banking will be split under the new arrangements. This is effectively the end of the tri-partite system. Alistair Darling defends the tri-partite system in its entirety, arguing that no one will understand from 'this dog's breakfast' who now regulates the banks - talk about undermining confidence, which the opposition was condemning less than half an hour ago.

Simon Hughes is an experienced campaigner, whose reputation is deservedly blemished by a handful of duplicities – Peter Tatchell, denying a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and the like. Hughes has just appeared on the Daily Politics and, very subtly, split the Lib Dems from the Tories. It was very simple: the Tories are responsible for all that’s bad and the Liberal Democrats are benevolent. First, Hughes dissociated the Liberals from tax rises: "I hope that the chancellor's hearing the voices that says VAT is not the right tax to change in the budget next week." Those voices are, of course, his ‘colleagues in the Treasury’ – an enlightened check on George Osborne’s excess.