Europe

Ten points ahead in the polls, Theresa May regarded as the best Prime Minister by a majority of voters and both Labour and Ukip in disarray. It is little wonder, as I say in The Sun today, that some Tories are beginning to get excited about an early election. But going for an early election would be a massive mistake for the Tories. First, what the public seem to like about Theresa May is that she is a no nonsense politician who gets on with the job in front of her. Voters appear to like her refrain that politics isn’t a game. But calling an early election would destroy all this for it would be game playing on an epic scale, a move designed to take advantage of Labour weakness. Next, you can’t know how long a honeymoon is going to last.

Paris was meant to be the more difficult leg of Theresa May’s first European tour as Prime Minister. But May’s press conference with Francois Hollande was far more cordial than expected. The French President was at pains to stress all the forms of cooperation that would continue between the two countries after the UK  left the EU. He continued to back the Le Touquet agreement which keeps the UK border at Calais.  However, he still wants Article 50 served quickly; ‘the sooner, the better’ was how he put it. There was, though, a tiny bit of softening on the question of talking about things before then. May, for her part, turned in a crisp performance.

‘Brexit means Brexit’ has been Theresa May’s message since she started running for the Tory leadership. But Brexit could mean a whole variety of things. For example, a Norwegian-style deal with the EU would, technically, be ‘Brexit’. But now, Theresa May has shown real intent. She has demonstrated that she really is serious about this. She has appointed three leavers to the key Brexit-related jobs in government. David Davis will be Secretary of State for exiting the EU, Liam Fox gets the International Trade job and Boris Johnson the Foreign Office. The David Davis appointment is particularly striking. He resigned, unexpectedly, from David Cameron’s shadow Cabinet.

Der Speigel has published a fascinating write-up giving last week’s extraordinary events from Angela Merkel’s perspective. Specifically, it seems, she’s had enough of Jean-Claude Juncker, the egregious president of the European Commission, and has told him to bow out from future negotiations with the UK. She’s fed up of him insisting that Britain rushes to invoke Article 50. Indeed, her “utmost concern,” says the magazine, is “giving Britain as much time as possible” for an orderly transition. Here’s an extract:- At 1 p.m. on the Friday after the Brexit referendum, Merkel makes a statement to Berlin journalists in which -- in contrast to Schulz -- she does not demand a rapid British withdrawal.

Stephen Crabb made a passionate plea this morning for Tories to stop thinking in terms of Remain and Leave when it comes to picking a leader. He warned that if people carry on doing this, it will lead to the party splitting. But all things being equal, I do think it would be best for the next Prime Minister to be a Leaver. After all, David Cameron resigned because he had campaigned for Remain and the country had voted to leave and he thought that made it impossible for him to chart the country on the new course it must now follow. There are two main reasons for thinking a Leave PM preferable. First of all, this would provide some accountability for what Vote Leave promised in the referendum.

Auf wiedersehen, Boris. He’ll be back, like a blond, bloated Voldemort inhabiting another life form – Top Gear host? Archbishop of York? Or endless BBC camping tours of Britain on a bike, the Portillo of the Portacabin? As Boris’ agent collects the offers – and his publishers are still owed a Shakespeare biography by the end of this anniversary year - he leaves behind him a Conservative Party scarred but resilient. There’ll be recriminations this week. Yet there’ll also be enduring relief, as one of Britain’s oldest institutions finds itself finally free of wrangling Etonians, chaps whose Brobdingnagian entitlement so undermined the gospel of One Nation inclusivity that both presumed to preach.

Much of the media attention in recent days has been focused on the vacuum of leadership in Westminster. However, Britain’s momentous decision to leave the EU has exposed deep cracks in relations with the European Union. Almost immediately after the Brexit vote, nations across continent woke up to the new possibility of leaving the bloc. This has left Europe’s leaders scurrying to prevent the so-called 'Brexit contagion'. The Eurosceptic charge was led by Marine Le Pen who called for a referendum in France and all other EU states. President Hollande has since rejected her calls, however, it would seem that Le Pen is echoing concerns of the majority in France.

Jo Johnson has declared his support for his brother’s leadership bid. In a statement to The Spectator, the minister for universities and science says: ‘Boris and I were on different side of a hard fought referendum campaign. But it is time to move on, time to unite and time to deliver. I have known my brother for longer than anyone in parliament. He is the great communicator—and I have no doubt at all that he is the person best placed not just to secure a new settlement for Britain in Europe but also to provide the optimistic, confident and outward-looking leadership we will need in months and years to come.’ Now, on the one hand Jo backing his brother is not that surprising.

This morning, Philip Hammond has insisted that those running for the Tory leadership explicitly set out how they intend to leave the EU. The Foreign Secretary told Robert Peston that he wanted to know how they would manage the trade-off between single market access and free movement. Hammond himself appears to favour a version of the Norwegian model; in the single market and accepting free movement. Now, I think we can take this as meaning that Hammond won’t back Boris Johnson. Hammond accused Boris and other Leavers of making ‘contradictory promises’ in the referendum campaign.

The UK’s EU Commissioner, Jonathan Hill, has resigned today saying that he couldn’t carry on as ‘though nothing had happened.’ This strikes me as an act of gross irresponsibility. Britain has not yet invoked Article 50, the two-year process for leaving the EU, and Hill staying on would have provided some continuity at a time of uncertainty. Supporters of his argue that his resignation was the honourable thing to do as Britain is no longer part of the team in Europe. It might have been right that Hill should have volunteered to move to another portfolio. But an outright resignation seems excessive and an over-reaction. Even Jean-Claude Juncker tried to persuade Hill to stay on.