Eu

The number of Tory MPs set to defy the government in the vote on an EU referndum tomorrow now stands at around 90, and numerous backbenchers – including John Redwood and David Davis – have called on the Prime Minister to drop the three-line whip. Even though he is certain to win the vote, many are already accusing Cameron of "blundering" and mismanaging this affair. But others are now suggesting that Cameron is in fact displaying a great deal of political nous by taking on the hardline Eurosceptics in his party.

Today’s Daily Express poll will add to the sense of momentum that the Tory rebels are feeling ahead of Monday’s vote. The fact that 81 per cent of Tory voters want their MP to vote for the motion will make it harder for the whips to dissuade those who are inclined to vote for the motion. The poll results also demonstrate that only a small percentage of the public would vote for the country’s current set-up with the European Union if they had the chance. Only 15 per cent would vote to stay in, compared to 28 per cent who would vote to leave, while 47 per cent would plump for renegotiation. If forced to chose between In or Out, the public splits 31 to 52.

Sources in Number 10 tell me that the party leaderships feels it cannot support the Eustice amendment. They stress that it is not Conservative party policy. But I also detect a sense that there is no point even considering backing it as the Lib Dems would never accept renegotiation followed by a referendum being government policy. If Number 10 continues to be inflexible, it will have a sizable rebellion on its hands. Tory MPs — especially those who think they might have a reselection fight on their hands, and that’s a lot of them thanks to the boundary review — want something to take back to their constituencies.

Adjust your calendars, CoffeeHousers. The parliamentary vote on an EU referendum is no longer set for next Thursday. As the Mail's James Chapman revealed this evening, Downing Street has moved it forward to Monday so that David Cameron and William Hague can both attend. They would have been away on government business otherwise. What to make of this hasty measure? I suppose it could feasibly be seen as a scare tactic on the part of No.10: strengthening the current three line whip by making it very clear that Dave Is Watching You. But it's far more likely that Cameron is appearing in order to set out the sorts of concessions that James mentioned earlier. There are, after all, almost 50 Tory backbenchers signed up to the original motion — 50 potential rebels.

As Peter Oborne observed on Newsnight recently, there is a tendency in the Eurozone to think its problems are political, rather than an economic crisis that cannot be wished away. For example, the Bundestag's much vaunted approval of an expanded EFSF has done little to alleviate Europe's weakness. Here's why: 1) We all knew the vote would pass: the opposition support made sure of that. The key point was that Angela Merkel got an absolute majority. It was a close call, but it always seemed likely that she would gain enough support from the flailing junior coalition party, the FDP, which, given its collapsing poll results, was unlikely to threaten the stability of the coalition for fear of further falls.

A spectacular row has broken out in Europe. Bulgaria and Romania have been denied access to the Schengen area after Finland and the Netherlands vetoed their inclusion. The Romanians pre-empted the decision over the weekend by banning Dutch flower imports on the grounds that they harboured dangerous bacteria. This decision won't disrupt the continuity of European life because Bulgaria and Romania already have access to the single market; so, in this case, the Schengen rules would mainly pertain to customs checks rather than freedom of movement. But this is of enormous symbolic importance because it rejects Jean Monnet's mission of ever closer union.

Today's Lib Dem attack on their coalition partners comes from Chris Huhne, who rails against a "Tea Party tendency" in Conservatives sceptical of the European Union. His premise is that those who are hostile to the EU are a minority. It's worth digging a little deeper here, because the opposite is true. If you believe that Britain has benefited from EU membership, you're in a smallish minority – 35 per cent to be precise. Huhne seems genuinely unaware of the depth of feeling out there. CoffeeHousers may be familiar with opinion polls commissioned by eurosceptic groups. But – as we say in the leading article of this week's Spectator – the European Commission can hardly be accused of an anti-EU bias.

I hear that 124 Tory MPs attended the inaugural meeting of the Tory ginger group pushing for renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with Europe. Those present included at least one minister — Theresa Villiers, several PPS and a few whips who were keeping a beady eye on proceeding. George Eustice, the convener of the group, told the room that he wanted the group to work with the government rather than against it and that he wanted front-benchers to feel comfortable attending the meetings. The group intends to put out a series of proposals as to which powers should be repatriated before issuing a white paper on how the government should renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union.

William Hague’s comments in an interview with The Times that the Liberal Democrats are restraining the Tories on Europe will increase the grumbling among Tory backbenchers about the power of the junior coalition partner. Hague tells the paper that ‘A point of difference in our manifesto was the aim to repatriate some powers. Clearly that’s something I’m in favour of, but that’s the area we had to compromise on in return for other compromises.’ (In many ways this is a statement of the obvious. But in the current uncertain European environment, his remarks are news). In an attempt to reassure euro-sceptics, Foreign Secretary stresses that the Conservative party ‘would like to see powers returned from the EU to the United Kingdom.

Europe will be one of the political issues of the autumn. The government expects another round of sovereign debt crises in the autumn and these will add urgency to the Merkel Sarkozy plan for ever closer fiscal union between the eurozone members. Nearly every Tory MP and minister I have spoken to is instinctively sceptical of the Franco-German strategy. But Cameron, Osborne and Hague believe that because the Eurozone members won’t accept the break-up of the currency union, Britain has to back further fiscal integration in the hope that it will make the euro work. (Cynically, one might add that their position also makes life easier within the coalition given the Lib Dem’s Europhile leanings.