Election

Scott Morrison’s Liberals were absolutely thrashed in the Australian elections this weekend. The party’s vote collapsed, and there were big-name defeats, with the man touted as Morrison’s successor – Josh Frydenberg – ousted in Kooyong, a suburb which had been in the party’s hands for 121 years. Whatever went wrong for the Morrison government, Saturday’s results might have relevance closer to home, even if teasing out domestic lessons from elections on the other side of the world is problematic. Australia is a different country, with a different political culture and a different electoral system. Scott Morrison was also an unloveable figure — stolid, gaffe-prone and not outwardly empathetic.

As the Conservative party’s Spring Forum gets underway in Blackpool, attention is turning back to domestic politics, with cabinet ministers publicly suggesting partygate is over – or more specifically that it is ‘fluff’ according to Jacob Rees-Mogg. A debate about tax is also underway on the fringes as Rishi Sunak continues to insist that he is a low tax Tory despite much of his behaviour since entering No. 11 suggesting the opposite. When the Chancellor unveils the spring statement next week, MPs hope there will be an indication of Sunak’s alleged tax cutting preferences. While the National Insurance hike is now viewed as baked in, there’s speculation that there could be some form of tax cut elsewhere when it comes to boosting enterprise.

It’s hard to imagine wanting to be a politician. Listening to people’s problems, being on your best behavior all the time (or at least working hard not to get caught), being in charge of stuff. It’s like the worst parts of adulthood on steroids. Not to mention all the campaigning — exhausted from traveling from one indistinguishable town to the next, feigning good humor, interest and delight in every person you meet and in every small diner’s Local Slop Special you’re forced to sample while telling everyone how great you are. It’s not for the faint of heart. Yet David McCormick, candidate for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat, seems to be made for it. Aspiring officeholders are a type. “Admirable” isn’t the right word, but remarkable, certainly.

Jacob Rees-Mogg is now arguing that the UK system has become so presidential that a new prime minister would feel obliged to call an election. The message to Tory MPs is clear: depose Boris Johnson and you’ll be going to the country in months — and do you really want to do that given the polls? Rees-Mogg’s argument is being used by the shadow whipping operation too. It has, from what I have been hearing, had some effects on new intake MPs. But among older intakes, there is a bit of a backlash to it.  There is a view that the argument takes them for fools. Yes, Labour and the other opposition parties would call for an election but why would someone with a majority of almost 80 go for a snap election?

It’s often said that memory is a fickle thing. Today, that fickleness has become a danger to the republic. If you turned on any of the major news networks over the past week, with the possible exception of Fox News, you’d have seen wall-to-wall coverage of the anniversary of the January 6 attack on the United States Capitol building. What’s concerning about this is all the misplaced lamentations. The travesty of the day was not the riot itself, though the assault was obviously horrific and a symbol of America’s democratic backsliding into an illiberal abyss. But the rampage was never an actual existential threat to the United States government and calling the attack an “insurrection” isn't accurate.

‘This government ends if the red wall reverts back to type and we lose 45 seats then end up in hung parliament territory,’ warns one secretary of state. This comment is a reminder of how vital it is for Boris that levelling up is seen to be a success. The rewards of getting it right are considerable. The Tories’ reward for that would probably be another decade in power: one cabinet loyalist says, ‘The boss wants to see a world where Labour are shut out. We consolidate the red wall.’  Michael Gove and Andy Haldane have found inspiration in 15th-century Florence But fixing regional disparities isn’t easy: it is hard to find any country where levelling up is a mission accomplished (as opposed to a work in progress).

The Conservative party doesn't have a great track record when it comes to early elections — MPs are still scarred by Theresa May losing the Tory majority after going for a snap poll in 2017. But that hasn't stopped talk of an early election building in recent weeks. This isn't about a vote tomorrow or next month but instead whether Johnson opts to go to the polls in 2023 rather than 2024.  There are compelling reasons that could tempt Johnson to go early The conventional wisdom is that Johnson won't even consider going early — he's already lost too much time to Covid and needs to deliver on levelling up. Meanwhile, few expect the government to win a bigger majority than the one it currently enjoys — so why rush?

The German election campaign has been entirely lacking in substance. Laschet, Baerbock, Scholz: none seem to grip the public’s attention. None are good enough to stand out, yet none are bad enough to drop out as the media and the opposition struggle to land definitive blows. Amid the monotony of political circus and sclerosis, the German press’s tactics are becoming increasingly outlandish, as two 11-year-old children asking questions about land requisition processes on television showed. A particular segment on the talk show Late Night Berlin is responsible: the idea is that children ask politicians questions.

The situation in Afghanistan has suddenly dominated the debate in the middle of a sluggish German election campaign. Candidates to succeed Angela Merkel are having to declare their positions. Military intervention is out of the question without US backing. The question then becomes a repeat of the Syrian crisis: will Germany once again open its doors to potentially hundreds of thousands of refugees and migrants? It’s an unequivocal ‘nein’ from the government. ‘There will not be another 2015’ came the strong response from the ruling coalition of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU and the SPD. The Green party, currently in opposition but the second strongest party in most polls, are fudging the issue.

The scenes in Capitol Hill tonight are the sort that many Americans thought they would never live to see.  A violent mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building, overwhelming law enforcement and firing their weapons into the Senate chamber. Four people have died - one woman shot and killed - and there are reports of police injuries. The Senate was debating (and set to certify) the results of the presidential election. Senators were evacuated just after 2pm – as was Vice President Mike Pence, who is thought to be a major target of the protestors after he announced he would not be swayed by Donald Trump's call to try to overturn the election result. Condemnation has been swift, unequivocal and from across the political spectrum.

Four days after a (much closer than predicted) election, American networks have called the race for Joe Biden, who has secured more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the race. CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox News (and now the BBC) project Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States, as vote counting in Pennsylvania gave the Vice President a big enough lead for them to say with confidence he had won. The additional 20 electoral votes from the swing state bring Biden to a total of 273. Based on current projections, Biden only needed one of the outstanding states (including Georgia or Nevada) to cross the finish line. In addition to the networks, Joe Biden is now also declaring victory.

Tensions over the election outcome are escalating in the United States, as President Donald Trump repeated unsubstantiated claims of election fraud. Nearly a day and a half after Trump prematurely declared victory, he took to the stage at a press conference held in the White House and did so again, arguing 'if you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us.' He also used the opportunity to double down on his assertions of foul play: 'they’re trying to rig an election. They’re trying to steal an election,' he said. Team Trump has not provided evidence for these serious allegations.