Ed miliband

Tories convinced ‘moment of maximum danger’ has passed

From our UK edition

On Thursday night, David Cameron didn’t eviscerate the competition. But nor did he suffer any damage and that, to Tory high command, meant that it was job done. The Tory leadership didn’t want any debates at all, they’d rather not have taken the risk. So, to get through this one debate with the dynamics of the campaign unchanged was, to their mind, a result. As Cameron enjoyed a late night drink with Samantha Cameron, George Osborne and his key aides on Thursday, he reflected on how much better he felt than he did after the first debate five years ago when he knew that he had not only underperformed but that he had two more to get through. This time round he’d done fine and was done with debates.

Osborne and Miliband compete to see who has the worst housing policy

From our UK edition

So who is talking more nonsense about the housing market: George Osborne or Ed Miliband? From today’s newspapers, it’s hard to tell. The problem: the era of low interest rates has fuelled an asset boom. Perhaps an asset bubble. Property prices are soaring to ridiculous levels, unaffordable for anyone without money in their family. This causes real despair for young people. So what to do? Ed Miliband’s solution: he’ll ‘harness’ (by which he means ‘divert’) money put into first-time buyer ISAs into housebuilding. This policy could only have been devised by a bunch of academics who don't understand markets.

Labour’s business battle shows how small its circle of support is

From our UK edition

I have never been impressed by round robin letters, so if Ed Miliband had shrugged off the letter to the Daily Telegraph this week signed by 103 businessmen with the words: ‘if they have got something to say why can’t they speak for themselves rather than bleating like a flock of sheep’ he would have gained my respect. If Labour had to counter it with a round robin letter of its own it might at least have tried to find 100 businessmen of its own. Instead it rustled up a bizarre letter of its own. Complaining about zero hours contracts it declared:  'We come from all walks of life, this is what Britain looks like.' But when you read the signatories below you realise just how small Labour’s circle has become. All walks of North London, it ought to read.

Ed Miliband could have won the election last night. Now, it’s Cameron’s to lose.

From our UK edition

The Sun's front page today has a picture of Ed Miliband saying: “Oops, I just lost my election”. That’s an exaggeration: I’d say the election is still 50/50, pretty much where it was last week. And realistically, that’s the best David Cameron could have hoped for. Miliband emerged best from the Paxman interviews, and had he triumphed last night he would have gathered momentum that could well have carried him over the line on 7 May. It was easier for Miliband to 'win - all he had to do to exceed expectations was turn up without the help of a life support machine. Last time, there was a sizeable gap between the caricature of Ed Miliband and the man at his best. But in his debate, the gap wasn't so big.

Cameron needs to be the reasonable statesman on tonight’s debate

From our UK edition

Which David Cameron will take the stage for tonight’s seven-way showdown? Will it be the competent, likeable and reasonable statesman who has steered the economy onto safer ground? Or the tetchy one who calls Ed Miliband a ‘waste of space’ at Prime Minister’s Questions? On Monday, speaking at a lectern outside the door of Number 10, the Prime Minister decided to launch a personal attack on his opposite number rather than make a statesman-like pitch to the electorate. To have mentioned Ed Miliband by name once would have been historic – doing so three times smacked of desperation.

Five things to watch for during tonight’s debate

From our UK edition

1) Can Natalie Bennett do enough to spark another Green surge? After Natalie Bennett’s infamous ‘brain fade’ the Green surge faded away. The media stopped giving the Greens the attention they had been and without the oxygen of publicity, support for the party fell away; this morning’s YouGov poll has the Greens on 4%, their lowest score since October. But tonight offers Bennett a chance to get her party back into the election frame. If she can deliver a few good answers and the odd zinger, that would be enough to get the media—and, then, the voters—to take a second look at her and the Greens. 2) Will Leanne Wood attack Miliband over the state of the NHS in Labour-run Wales?

Podcast special: the seven-way TV leaders debate

From our UK edition

Tonight's televised debate between seven of the party leaders promises to be one of the most interesting events of the campaign. In this View from 22 podcast special, Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman, James Forsyth and I discuss who is expected to do well, the issues that will be raised, which leaders will gang up on David Cameron and whether Ed Miliband can meet the high expectations, As with the Q&A programme last week, we'll be running a live blog on Coffee House from 7:45pm this evening, so you can follow our instant reaction to the debate.

Zero-hours contracts have nothing to do with flexibility and everything to do with dodging tax

From our UK edition

Could you live on a zero-hours contract? David Cameron was forced to admit, during his grilling by Jeremy Paxman, that he couldn’t. But 1.4 million Britons do. Some out of choice, some through necessity. But the latest attempts by the main parties to tackle the injustices of zero-hours contracts fail to get to the heart of the problem – which has nothing to do with a need for 'flexibility' and everything to do with dodging tax. Many of us might be horrified at the thought of not knowing when our next pay cheque will be coming and how much it will be, but large numbers of people on zero-hours contracts are perfectly happy without that job security.

Why are so many men on diets? I blame feminists

From our UK edition

According to Jenni Russell, my colleague at the Times, David Cameron has lost 13lb since Christmas, mainly by giving up on peanuts and biscuits. Now that’s a lot of peanuts and biscuits. It’s a bit yo-yo, Cameron’s weight, isn’t it? He gets bigger, he gets smaller again, like a giant, very pink, human-shaped balloon that some giant unseen hand is alternately squeezing and relaxing around the legs. He wears it well, though. When Nigel Lawson lost all that weight he looked like a man with a puncture. George Osborne only shrinks these days, and will soon be as slim as his own lapels. So I suppose Cameron might be spurred on by the sight of him every morning, picking up muffins in cabinet and putting them down again with a sigh.

Camilla Rutherford backs Ed Miliband’s 007 campaign

From our UK edition

Yesterday Ed Miliband declared that it was high time the James Bond films moved with the times and cast a woman as the next 007. Although the comments were met with outrage from some of the more traditional Bond fans, the Labour leader can take heart that Camilla Rutherford has picked up his rallying cry. Speaking at Spectator Life's third birthday party, the Gosford Park actress urged the producers to cast a female lead. 'It's definitely time we had a Jane Bond instead of a James Bond. I think a woman would be great in the role. The only thing is that with a man it can be quite a suave move to go from drinking a martini at the bar to being in a car chase whereas Jane Bond would probably need time to get out of her dress first.

Jim Murphy’s popularity surges (in England)

From our UK edition

There's not much love for Labour in Scotland at the moment, with Mr S reporting this week that Jim Murphy has failed to mention his own party on campaign leaflets. As the SNP come out on top in the polls and the reds hope for a 'late swing' to Labour north of the border, the Scottish Labour leader can take comfort that he is at least popular down south. Word reaches Mr S that at a London fundraiser last week for the Scottish Labour Party, a jog with fitness freak Jim was auctioned off for well over £1,000. Meanwhile a bottle of House of Commons whisky signed by Ed Miliband failed to reach £100 in bids, barely covering the cost of the grog. And they say Scots don’t make healthy lifestyle choices.

Should Labour dismiss a letter from 100 business chiefs?

From our UK edition

The Labour reaction today to the Telegraph’s high-volume splash on 100 business leaders warning about the dangers of a Labour government has largely been along the lines of ‘how interesting, and tomorrow will you tell us about the Pope’s theology?’ The coverage of the letter, which has the mark of Tory co-chair Lord Feldman, has certainly created a rather stark contrast to the party’s own announcement that it will give workers on zero hours contracts a legal right to request proper hours after 12 weeks. Labour likes this contrast. The letter says: Dear Sirs, We run some of the leading businesses in the UK. We believe this Conservative-led Government has been good for business and has pursued policies which have supported investment and job creation.

New poll shows SNP will annihilate Labour — but the nation is still divided over independence

From our UK edition

Scottish Labour is having no luck in denting the SNP’s support. ComRes/ITV News have released a new poll this evening, which shows a 19 per cent swing to the SNP across the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland. Based on this, the SNP would take 28 of these seats in the upcoming general election. North of the border, ComRes puts the SNP on 43 per cent, Labour on 37, the Tories on 13 and Ukip, the Lib Dems and Greens on two per cent each. The ComRes findings fall in line with the other polls taken in Scotland from Lord Ashcroft and ICM — the latter recently suggested that the SNP would take 29 seats from Labour with a 20 per cent swing.

Revealed: How Labour’s election broadcast star supported Arthur Scargill’s Socialist party

From our UK edition

Tonight Martin Freeman will take on a starring role in the latest Labour election broadcast. In the short film, the Sherlock actor says that for him 'there's only once choice' and that's Labour. Alas for Labour, that hasn't always strictly been the case. Mr S recalls the 2001 general election during which Freeman voted not for Labour, but instead for Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour party. At the time, Scargill's party pledged to leave the EU, create a four-day working week, abolish the monarchy and axe the House of Lords if they took power.

Were the Tories’ dodgy figures designed to provoke Labour into making a statement?

From our UK edition

Why are the Tories peddling what the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies has described as ‘at best unhelpful’, which is the claim that households would be hit with a £3,000 tax bombshell if Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister? The IFS’ analysis came out earlier today, but this evening George Osborne repeated the claim, saying: ‘Well it’s based on what the Labour party has voted for and what Ed Miliband has said he will do… I am confident that that is based on what the Labour party has voted for in Parliament.

Cameron: It is me or Miliband

From our UK edition

It is rare for politicians to mention their opponents by name - don’t give them the publicity is the normal approach. But standing in Downing Street just now to announce the start of the election campaign, David Cameron pointed at the door of Number 10 and said ‘The next Prime Minister walking through that door will be me or Ed Miliband’. There’s a method to the Tory approach. They believe that one of their trump cards in this election is that the public just can’t see Ed Miliband as Prime Minister. They want to force voters to confront the choice that one of Miliband or Cameron will be Prime Minister after the election and that the only way to make sure it isn’t Miliband is to vote Tory.

Why is Labour making merit out of not backing an EU referendum?

From our UK edition

Fair play to Ed Miliband for launching Labour’s business manifesto today in Bloomberg, not perhaps the party’s natural stamping ground, at least not since the prawn cocktail initiative in 1997. And it was gutsy of it too to take out a full page advertisement in the FT – they don’t come cheap - to broadcast the party’s opposition to an EU referendum. 'The biggest risk to British business is the threat of an EU exit. Labour will put the national interest first. We will deliver reform, not exit', it says. Granted most British businesses, especially big ones and foreign-based ones, don’t want out of the EU.

Jim Murphy fails to mention Labour on his campaign leaflets

From our UK edition

Earlier this month the Labour party were accused of not including pictures of Ed Miliband on campaign literature out of fear that the mere image of their party leader could scare off voters. Now Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy appears to have gone one step further and simply not mentioned Labour at all. Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, claims that campaign leaflets for Murphy fail to mention the Labour party once: I get @JimForScotland leaving Miliband off his leaflet but why has he left off @scottishlabour? Not a single mention. pic.twitter.

Podcast special: eve of the general election campaign + SNP spring conference

From our UK edition

The general election campaign kicks off tomorrow and Labour appears to have the 'Big Mo'. In this View from 22 podcast special,  Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss the state of the polls — and the new YouGov/Sunday Times poll which suggests Labour are four points ahead — and whether Ed Miliband's 'win' in the TV Q&A this week has put the Tories on the back foot. What can we expect to happen in the first week of the campaign?