Economy

Osborne needs to hold the line

Even governors can be wrong. The Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report is expected to downgrade its original growth forecasts and predict a sharp increase in inflation, albeit one that peaks this year and returns to the target rate by 2012. A spike in inflation is scarcely surprising given the planned VAT rise, and the Bank’s original growth forecasts were, like Alistair Darling’s forecasts, absurdly over optimistic – predicting 3.4 percent growth next year and 3.6 percent the year after. The Bank’s revisions needn’t trouble George Osborne, whose forecasts of 2.3 percent growth next year and 2.8 percent in 2012 were drawn from the OBR. However, the OBR may have

Ominous signs in the housing market - but Osborne must remain undaunted

Are we on the verge of a double-dip in housing? The graph above, courtesy of Citi, certainly looks ominous enough. The blue line is a Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors metric for the balance of surveyors reporting rising house prices – and, last month, it slipped into negative territory for the first time since July 2009. The pink line is the rise in house prices, year on year – and it’s heading downwards too. At first glance, the picture looks a lot like the peak which preceded the crash in 2008. The question is whether we’re going to plumb a similar trough. Citi, it must be said, are fairly sanguine

Cable's 50-50 warning

As compliments go, there’s something slightly backhanded about Vince Cable’s claim that, “Having worked with [the Tories] at close quarters, I’ve been pleasantly surprised that they’re not as I’d envisaged them.” And that’s just one of the little nuggets embedded within his interview with Decca Aitkenhead this morning. The Business Secretary touches on everything from what he thinks of George Osborne (“he’s clearly able”) to his own ability to craft a joke (“I’m actually quite good at one-liners”). If you want a sense of where Cable is at, then Aitkenhead’s piece is worth a quick read. But if you’re stuck for time, then – as George Eaton notes over the

Maintaining the private sector motor

There’s a lot of economic speculation swirling around the Westminster washbowl at the momment, but little of it is as eyecatching as today’s report from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. Its finding that a third of employers are expecting to cut jobs in the next quarter is bound to spark double-dip fears, even if that expectation is more keenly felt in the public sector than in the private. 36 percent of public sector employers foresee job losses, against 30 percent in the private sector. Perhaps more worryingly, both sectors are expecting more redundancies than they did in last quarter’s report. Look below the headline figures, though, and there

Cameron makes the cuts more presentable

David Cameron’s neatly-constructed article in the Sunday Times (£) perfectly typifies the balancing act he is performing ahead of this autumn’s Spending Review. The Prime Minister has to sound tough on the deficit because, thanks to the fiscal brinksmanship of one G. Brown, that’s the job he has been appointed to do. But he doesn’t want to come across as sadistic or gloomy, lest it alienate voters and coalition partners alike. The edges of the cuts need to be rounded off, made more presentable. To that end, Cameron suggests first that the cuts aren’t ideological. There are, he says, items of spending that he’d like to keep – but wider

Tyrie asserts himself once again

Few MPs have made quite so many waves recenty as last year’s Spectator backbencher of the year, Andrew Tyrie. Under his chairmanship, the Treasury Select Committee seems to have gained a new vitality and edge. And it has certainly accumulated more powers, with the ability to veto the government’s appointments to, and dismissals from, the Office for Budget Responsibility. As he put it himself in an interview with the Independent last week, “The fight back by Parliament is beginning now.” Just how aggressively he intends to prosecute that fight back is suggested by his comments in the Times (£) today. Responding to George Osborne’s recent demands for the banks to

Getting credit flowing will be one of the coalition's toughest challenges

In interview with the Sunday Telegraph today, George Osborne stresses that the banks have got to start lending again – and he’s right to do so. The easy availability of cheap credit may have done much to get us into this mess, but now we face a converse problem. As a recent Bank of England report shows, net lending from the banks to businesses remains negative – or, in other words, more is being paid back than given out – and the situation is getting worse. With small and medium businesses so reliant on credit to get themselves off the ground, this doesn’t augur well for a powerful recovery. But

Beating up the ASBO

Theresa May has taken the truncheon to the previous government’s rather singular anti-social behaviour policy. The ASBO, of which more than half were ignored in 2008, will be a thing of the past; supermarkets will not be able to sell alcohol at less than cost price; and 24 four hour drinking licenses will be subject to local vetoes, even if the residents do not live near or adjacent to pubs and clubs. On confronting anti-social behaviour, May pledges that ultimate political cliché – a coherent and comprehensive strategy. At the moment, there are few details beyond fines for selling drink to underage drinkers. Limiting booze intake is welcome, but alcohol

David Cameron is not cutting it with India’s media

The British press has worked itself into a gibbering mass of excitement about Cameron’s visit to India. The Indian press has barely noticed it. There is no mention of Cameron on the front page of The Times of India’s website, which is dominated by the spat between cricketing legends Bishen Bedi and Muttiah Muralitharan – in fact, those two are all over the press. Also, the Hindustan Times leads with a scintillating description of a parliamentary point of order; the Calcutta Telegraph splashes with an account of army operations against Maoist rebels in northern Bengal. India Daily has coverage of the Wikileaks saga. And IndiaTV is fixated by an extraordinary

Dave's pageant is all very well, but India wants to talk immigration

In 1690, Thomas ‘Diamond’ Pitt led an opulent delegation of the East India Company’s Madras factors, bearing their wares, to the Nawab of the Carnatic, the richest man in southern India, with the intention of buying him out. They succeeded, but Pitt had nothing on David Cameron’s delegation.  Six cabinet ministers, more than 10 CEOs and God knows how many diplomats are accompanying the Prime Minister. The only person missing is Nick – but that sort of thing is frowned upon by Delhi’s Edwardianly genteel political classes. As I wrote yesterday, pageantry titillates commercial diplomacy, and Cameron is staking everything on this mission. As the Independent reported yesterday, current Anglo-Indian bilateral trade is worth

Forging a cheaper green policy

The debate over climate change is one of the most polarised in UK politics, between those advocating doing everything possible (no matter what the cost) and those who refuse to think about doing anything at all. If, like us, you take the view that the science tells us there are major risks from climate change – albeit with uncertainty around how bad, when and where the risks might bear out – but that costs matter, you are likely to find yourself simultaneously denounced by both sides as a ‘denialist’ and a ‘warmist’. Our new report, Greener, Cheaper explores how we can cut the costs of cutting carbon. We assume that

Cameron’s foreign policy is music to the ears of a resurgent FCO

Tim Montgomerie observes that the FCO now stands for Foreign and Commerce Office. David Cameron is determined to conduct British foreign policy in our economic interest. And, in that spirit, he is off to charm India in the hope of gaining access to that enormous emerging market – last week’s magazine has exhaustive coverage of the trip. Tim also claims that the Foreign Office won’t like this ‘redirection of their mission’. I’m not so sure. From what I hear, the Foreign Office is loving it; it’s just like old times. The FO was marginalised under the previous government; Labour cut staff in embassies and consulates around the globe. The coalition

The Hayward saga draws to a close

There has been an inevitability about Tony Hayward’s departure from BP ever since the first aftershocks of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. But now, despite BP’s peculiar denials this morning, that inevitability has reached fever pitch – and it’s widely expected that Hayward will be booted out of his job tomorrow morning. As a thousand comment writers have quipped, he can now get his life back. The question on most observer’s minds is, does he deserve it? And it’s a question which Allister Heath answers persuasively in City AM today. My quick take is that, yes, Hayward came under unfair and politically-motivated fire at times, but much of the criticism flung

Guess who's back | 26 July 2010

Oh look, Gordon Brown has continured his return to public life with a sizeable interview in today’s Independent.  It’s a generous portrait which seems designed to dispel any rumours about the former Prime Minister’s wellbeing. Apparently, he “looks healthy and fit … seems quite cheerful.” And we’re treated to descriptions of his face, “like a map of a man’s soul.” For those who can read any further, there are accounts of his constituency work and his aspirations to “do more on international development”. The world shudders. Despite his claims to the contrary, there are ominous signs that Brown is keen to impact upon our national politics. His clearest boast in

Will GDP rise be Osborne’s get out clause?

Alistair Darling has been on Sky News doing a lap of honour for today’s GDP growth figures. “Vindicates everything we did,” he said – his narrative being that the extra debt did indeed boost the economy and produced 1.1 percent growth in this quarter. This chimes with what I wrote in the Daily Telegraph a few weeks ago: that the economy is better, not worse, than the Tories thought. Even if, or should I say when, the ONS say the figure was wrong and needs to be revised downwards it will still mean tax revenue churning in at a far faster rate than thought. This will give Osborne a get-out

Howard versus Clarke

Michael Howard appeared on today’s Daily Politics and laid into Ken Clarke’s ‘caricature’ of a policy to reduce prison places. There is, Howard argues and John Denham supported him, a correlation between increasing the number of those incarcerated and a fall in crime. In other words, prison still works. Howard criticised Clarke’s ‘rather foolish’ denial of that link. Howard echoes the Spectator’s editorial line that early release endangers society, and that it costs less in real terms to keep criminals in prison. Howard’s off-message critique is the most total I have yet seen, particularly on the statistical case against the government’s position. It is significant that it came from a

Osborne keeps it simple

George Osborne has talked of simplifying the tax system for years, and today he launched the OTS, The Office for Tax Simplification. The OTS will be chaired by Michael Jack, s Treasury minister in the Major government, and John Whiting of PWC and Chartered Institute of Taxation. The OTS looks suspiciously like a quango, but some public bodies are necessary and welcome. The tax system is unintelligible, and, needless to say, Gordon Brown complicated it further with morass of stealth taxes, tax credits and new loopholes opened more by chance than design. This has particularly affected small businesses and the OTS will identify salient businesses taxes and recommend their simplification.

A special relationship in the making?

I’ve spent the morning contending with the WSJ’s Heath Robinson-esque subscription service so you don’t have to. Inside the paper, David Cameron explains what the Special Relationship means to him. 1). The Special Relationship is close and robust because British and American values are essentially the same, which explains why our national interests are often aligned: ‘The U.S.-U.K. relationship is simple: It’s strong because it delivers for both of us. The alliance is not sustained by our historical ties or blind loyalty. This is a partnership of choice that serves our national interests.’ There may be differences in emphasis and application, but, Cameron argues, Britain and America stand together on Afghanistan, global

Green gold

Most of Tim Yeo’s proselytising on climate change must be resisted. He calls for a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions in the short-term, which would paralyse Britain’s already geriatric economic competitiveness. He also endorses a policy that would push consumer energy prices to punitive levels in the hope that their behaviour is moderated. And he is adamant that David Cameron’s Husky photo-op was the last word in political positioning. But, his central point, one shared with John Redwood and Peter Lilley, is unanswerable: ‘Working towards a low carbon economy is not a “luxury”; it is essential to our future prosperity. If we fail to decarbonise our electricity industry, our transport

Clueless Chuka

Given that the Labour leadership campaign is so dull, we should thank Chuka Umunna for cheering us up with his comedy economic analysis. Now on the Treasury Select Committee, he has regaled us with an ‘Open letter to George Osborne’ where he makes many entertaining points. It’s worth looking at, because it sums up a few errors swirling around the Labour benches.   1)   During our exchange, you insisted your budget was “progressive”… you stood by your decision to apply a 10 percent cut to the housing benefit of those who have been on JSA for more than 12 months. Osborne has to use words like “progressive” to assuage the