David miliband

"Quietly confident." That's how Diane Abbott felt as the Labour leadership ballot entered its final hours today. I can only assume that she meant "…of victory," but the bookies, and all sensible observers, are telling a different story. With the polls now closed, Ladbrokes has David Miliband as the 4/7 favourite, Ed Miliband is on 5/4, Ed Balls and Andy Burnham are both 100/1 shots – and Abbott? Well, Abbott is wheezing along at 150/1. Whoever wins, one thing is for certain: we are about to enter a new cycle in British politics, and one which should clear up a few itchingly persistent questions. How will the coalition fare against an opposition which actually has a proper leader in place? Who will be shadow chancellor? What will become of the losing Miliband?

Now how's this for an opinion? Writing for Labour Uncut, Dan Hodges announces that David Miliband has won the Labour leadership contest. His piece starts: "This Saturday David Miliband will become leader of the Labour party. He will have won a majority of his Parliamentary colleagues and the wider membership, along with sufficient support from unions and other affiliates to secure not just victory but  an overwhelming mandate. The New Labour era will be over." To most other observers, myself included, it still looks too close to call. But the more I think about it, the more I feel that David Miliband is best equipped to win this contest. If the Labour party has its eyes on government, then the Hodges prediction should translate into reality on Saturday.

Nick Clegg has opened the political season with a very singular statement: ‘There is no future for us as left-wing rivals to Labour. Clegg urges his internal critics to be patient: the future could be yellow if the coalition is maintained. It’s a gamble. Immediately, Clegg has alienated those who abandoned Labour for the Lib Dems and his explicit disavowal of ‘left-wing’ politics will have the social democratic wing of his party reaching for their hat and coats. But, Clegg has planted his colours on politics’ crowded centre ground, recasting his party’s identity as an economically liberal and socially liberal centrist movement.

The Labour leadership hustings are over, tonight’s one on Question Time was the last one. As has been the case at so many previous hustings, Ed Balls was the most intellectually forceful of the contenders. Whatever you think of his arguments on the economy (and I disagree with them), he puts them across with a clarity and directness that none of the other candidates can match. It was revealing how when Ed Balls took issue with Andy Burnham’s accurate statement that there would have been ‘significant job loses’ under Labour, the others all backed away.

Trust Bob Crow to turn down the charm. Explaining why he was boycotting Mervyn King's address to the TUC today, the RMT union boss managed to liken the Governor of the Bank of England to both the "devil" and the "Sheriff of Nottingham". Unsurprising, perhaps – but it's yet another reminder of why, for the Labour leadership contenders, marching in lockstep with the unions may not be such a good idea. To Harriet Harman, a Labour Party bound to Crow & Co. might be a “progressive coalition”. But to the rest of the country, it will probably look slightly left of sane. Only David Miliband, to his credit, seems to have properly grasped this fact – and the fact that he might hope to work alongside people like King one day.

Parliament is busy preparing to receive the Pope, the red carpet has been put down in Westminster Hall and the Commons authorities have announced that they are closing all the bars down from 2pm on Friday. But it is earthly matters that are still preoccupying people here. As you walk through the gothic arches, you see little clumps of people gathering together trying to work out which Miliband will be the next leader of the Labour party. At the moment, the race really does seem too close to call. But it is just worth reflecting for a second how crucial the new leader’s first few weeks will be. 3 days after the result is announced, the leader will need to give the leader’s speech at conference.

This weekend’s YouGov poll showing Ed Miliband ahead in the Labour leadership contest is the talk of Westminster today. One David Miliband backer told me that he thought it was flawed as it assumed that MPs' second preferences would split evenly between the two brothers when David had the advantage. I was told that nearly all Andy Burnham’s parliamentary backers would put David second, that most of Balls’ would do the same and that Ed Miliband could only rely on Diane Abbott’s parliamentary backers' second preferences. But Ed Miliband’s supporters dispute this. They believe that they are making progress everywhere.

The Press Association is reporting that a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has Ed Miliband leading his brother 51 49 among Labour members and trade unionist once second preferences have been taken into account. Now given David Miliband’s advantage among MP and MEPs, the other part of Labour’s electoral-college, the elder Miliband should still have enough to get over the line. (The Press Association’s headline—‘Poll points to Ed Miliband victory’—strikes me as a bit off for this reason). But this poll will give the Ed Miliband camp a massive boost going into the final full week of campaigning. One of the things Ed needed was a sense that he really could win and this poll helps him get that.

Parliament has that beginning of term feel today, lots of people discussing what they did on their summer holidays. After the holidays, the main topic of conversation is this whole phone tapping business. Everyone is wondering how long the BBC will keep playing it as the top story; it even devoted two thirds of the One O’Clock news to it. Given how reluctant the papers are to touch it, the story will burn out if the BBC stops fanning the flames. But one thing that I feel is being overlooked is Tony Blair’s attack on the coalition as soft on crime. If David Miliband wins the Labour leadership, I expect the Labour party will hammer the coalition on crime. There’s a real danger that the coalition’s policies could create a whole bunch of Willie Hortons.

David Miliband’s performance in Sky News’ Labour leadership hustings will have calmed the nerved of his supporters. In the run-off between him and his brother, David came out on top. His answers were generally sharper and he managed to parry away Ed’s criticisms on tuition fees and foreign policy. (In a pointed remark, Ed said that the Labour government’s foreign policy had been based on ‘old ideas’.) Indeed, Ed Miliband only seemed to get going in his closing statement which was pitch-perfect David’s best moment came when the contenders were asked to pick between Blair and Brown. Ed Balls opted for Brown, Diane Abbott said that Brown ‘was the better man’ and then it was the elder Miliband’s turn.

A Thick of It style interlude from Ann Treneman's interview (£) with Ed Miliband today: "There is also a visit to something called a 'communiversity' where he is confronted with what, for a Miliband, is a scary sight: a bowl of fruit. 'Us Milibands are funny about funny shaped fruit,' he notes, plucking out an apple and avoiding the yellow peril that gave his brother the nickname Milibanana after he was pictured holding one and looking, well, a bit bananas. Later, on a trip to a community farm I feel on the brink of a major news scoop when someone tries to make Ed hold a broccoli. 'Ed does not need to hold the broccoli,' says his press handler as the green blob was extended.

It must be quite satisfying for the David Miliband campaign that they can commission a YouGov poll and get all the results they would have wanted. According to the Guardian, MiliD has a signigicant lead when it comes to which candidate is the "most effective alternative to Cameron". But it's this finding that is the most significant:   "The poll of 2,907 people, conducted between 25-27 August, also found that David Miliband enjoys a strong lead among voters who abandoned Labour – a key battle in the leadership campaign. He has a 25% lead over his brother among these voters on who would be the best alternative to Cameron, and a 27% lead as the candidate most likely to persuade people to vote Labour.

The ballot has opened and the Mirror has joined the mounting chorus in favour of David Miliband. They say of Miliband: ‘We believe he has the intellect, talent and experience to take on the Tories - and eventually become PM.’ Their timing is odd, given that Fleet Street and Westminster are currently captivated by Tony Blair’s memoir. But it is also a neat coincidence that Blair’s journey ends on the day that his apparent heir’s begins. As Tim Montgomerie notes in today’s Times (£), the Tories fear David Miliband because he is the only Labour leadership candidate who asks: ‘What would Tony do?’ It goes deeper than that.

And Westminster's Idle Question of the Day is: will Ed Balls be made shadow chancellor under a Miliband leadership? There are good arguments both for and against the proposition – and most of them are made in this blog post by the Guardian's Nicholas Watt. Even Blairites, he says, are warming to the idea of Balls running Labour's economic policy. But if it's to happen under David Miliband, then the two men would have to reconcile their different views on tackling the deficit. Under Ed Miliband, the reconciliation would have to be more personal than economic. Neither, I suppose, is impossible. But as all this speculation whirls around Balls, I do wonder why Liam Byrne's name hasn't been mentioned more often in connection with the role.

Whatever happened to Peter Mandelson's regard for Ed Miliband? A year-and-a-half ago, the Ennobled One was thought to have marked out MiliE as a future Labour leader. But, today, he pulls out the verbal chainsaw and sets about tearing him down. The younger Miliband, Mandelson implies in an interview with the Times (£), would lead Labour into an "electoral cul-de-sac," because, "to suggest that we should be concentrating on our core current voters … is by way of saying that we want to remain a minority party." And, just in case we didn't get the message, he adds: "we're not looking for a preacher as our leader." Although Mandelson doesn't say as much, it all adds up to an endorsement for the other Miliband brother.

  David Cameron has dismissed the Labour leadership election as a "Star Trek convention" with policy wonks battling out to go where no spad has gone before. That caricature has some currency (see picture, left). But as he'll know, a deeper choice faces Labour. David Miliband may be the geekier one - playing Spock to Ed's Kirk. You can argue that Ed speaks better human, that he's more plain-speaking. But when he does speak, it's worth listening to what he has to say. And his piece in the Observer makes clear why so many Tories want him to win. He says he will "make capitalism work for the people" - who has it been working for so far? The government? He proposes to ration corporation tax cuts for companies if they up the minimum wage to £7.