David cameron

Coffee House readers will be unsurprised by the interest taken by the newspapers and the Today programme in MPs' pay: this blog predicted that it could be the next big row in the Conservative party at the start of June. It is politically sensible for the Prime Minister to say that he disagrees with a pay rise recommended by Ipsa if it raises overall costs, even if he has no formal veto over a raise. All he can do is send a formal response to the pay consultation. But he will need to work hard to keep his party behind him, and so will the other party leaders.

Friday’s vote on James Wharton’s EU referendum bill is going to push the whole Europe question right back up the political agenda. The Tories will try and use it to highlight their support for a vote and the opposition of the other major parliamentary parties. It will be very hard for Ed Miliband to go into the next election opposed to a referendum. It would look like he was opposed to giving the public a say. I also suspect that it will become almost politically impossible to oppose a referendum after the European Elections in 2014. Patrick Wintour reports today that Labour is toying with the idea of either amending the Wharton Bill to back an instant In / Out vote or committing to one within the six months of the next election.

Margaret Thatcher’s death has reinvigorated her devout following in the Conservative Party. The current Prime Minister was wise to give the House of Lord’s terrace a wide berth last night. It was packed out for the summer party of Conservative Way Forward. This is the pressure group that was established to preserve ‘the lady’s legacy’. Young Dave was not the most popular person in the room. This became clear after the minute’s silence for the group’s deceased honorary president, when former defence minister Gerald Howarth took to the podium to greet ‘the conservative wing of the coalition’. He went on to slam the PM for ‘slashing defence spending while protecting international aid’.

In February, David Cameron managed to rally of group of likeminded countries to agree a historic cut to the EU’s long-term budget. However, due to the maddening complexities involved in the EU politics, a cut isn’t always a cut (just as an opt-out isn’t always an opt-out).  Which is why, while all eyes in Westminster were on the scrap between George Osborne and Ed Balls over the Comprehensive Spending Review, the European Commission’s presentation today of its draft budget for 2014 – the first under the new deal – is politically significant. For Cameron, there is both good and bad news. The good is that the 2014 budget does indeed represent a cut in spending – from €144.5bn in 2013 down to €135.9bn, a reduction of 5.8 per cent.

Do you understand what David Cameron's Europe policy is supposed to achieve? If so, you're way ahead of me. I've said before that I think Europe will cripple Cameron unless Ed Miliband gets there first and nothing has happened since to change my mind. Isabel's scoop published today, revealing the results of the Tory party's internal consultation help make the folly of Cameron's policy even clearer. With some understatement Isabel concludes that the results "underline how big the expectations are on Cameron to bring about big change in Europe". Indeed they do. Tory members are telling the Prime Minister that the European parliament should be abolished. This may not be the worst idea in the world but it is one of the most fanciful.

This was a card-shredder of a performance by Ed Miliband. He’s had some difficult outings lately but he barely even showed up at PMQs today. His team of phrase-makers and sloganeers have abandoned him too. Either they’re in the Priory, taking emergency anti-depressants, or they’ve quit the party altogether. And those in Labour’s heartlands watching their leader floundering today are probably composting their membership cards right now. Ed’s central attack looked like an attempt to give Cameron a relaxing massage. He accused the government of offering tax-breaks to the rich. Yet Labour’s top tax-rate was lower for most of their 13 years than it is today. Cameron took the opportunity to gloat over Labour’s woeful economic record.

Is there not something odd about a Prime Minister talking of getting involved in the Syrian civil war on the very day that another 4,500 British service personnel had their redundancy notices handed to them? It has always been my belief that you should never even tinker in a conflict unless you are prepared to go all the way should circumstances change (as they tend to). Britain no longer has the capability to get fully involved in Syria. So I suppose that we will all have to hope that Mr Cameron and Mr Hague possess an uncanny ability for identifying moderates, arm them nicely and just hope that everything goes well. We must certainly hope that Cameron and Hague's moderation-sensors are better tuned than Senator McCain's.

David Cameron and Vladimir Putin have just concluded their pre G8 talks, the main topic of which was Syria. Cameron wants to use the next few days to try and persuade the Russians to stop backing Assad; the weapons they’ve been sending him have enabled him to gain the upper hand on the rebels militarily. Cameron instinctively wants to do something about the slaughter in the Levant for both strategic and moral reasons. As one figure intimately involved in British policy making on Syria told me earlier, ‘The one certainty is that, if nothing is done, not only will lives be lost, not only will Assad not negotiate, but we will also not stop radicalisation.