Conservative party

After those crisis talks in Downing Street that I reported yesterday, I hear that the government plans to bring the Immigration bill back to the Commons with amendments. Number 10 is insisting that nothing has yet been confirmed but suggestions that it could return on Tuesday may be incorrect. Doubtless those government amendments are designed to calm backbenchers down sufficiently for them to withdraw their amendment. But I've just spoken to Nigel Mills, who tabled the amendment, and he is going to press it. He says: The government amendments are not unhelpful but don't tackle the already existing issues of immigration from the EU being too high and leaving us a long way from the tens of thousands promise.

The Tories have always denied rumours that they might give their coalition colleagues an easier ride at constituency level in the 2015 general election. But even though all three parties are very much on an election war footing now, the Conservatives have, strangely, yet to select candidates to fight two of their favourite ministers. The constituencies for Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander currently have no candidates, along with 28 others (including MPs the Tories aren't quite so keen on working with in Coalition, such as Lynne Featherstone), while the other 27 have candidates in place. Alexander is easy to work with in the Treasury (I reported before Christmas that he'd been scolded by Lib Dem high command for using the Tory term 'global race').

As Rod pointed out the other day, Arthur Scargill’s purchase of his council flat illustrated the triumph of Thatcherism over its opponents; like any winning ideology it created the conditions for its followers to flourish and increase in number, and so securing the revolution. That’s one of many things that Tony Blair had in common with the Conservative leader; New Labour created the conditions, through an expanded and often highly-politicised public sector, for Blairites to flourish and therefore for Blairism to triumph, not just at the ballot box but culturally too.

What an odd coincidence that on the eve of what's being billed as a major economic speech by Ed Miliband, George Osborne sticks up his periscope and makes a big fat announcement on the minimum wage. The Chancellor and his colleagues have been mulling this increase for months, and have been making confusing but supportive noises over the past few weeks, and this evening would have seemed an odd time for the Chancellor to give an interview to the BBC on the subject if Osborne weren't famed for being such an enthusiastic strategist.

If I was going to measure possible reasons to desert the Tories at the next election, and I can think of a couple, plans to concrete over the countryside would score pretty highly. As a theoretical idea about something happening miles away from my home it almost makes me want to write letters to the Telegraph; if it were in my backyard I’d be shaking my fist at passing traffic or whatever people in the countryside do when they’re angry. This is moderately dangerous to the party, because what’s different now to, say, five years ago is that disaffected shire Tories have a plausible alternative to turn to, one that isn’t just opportunistically opposing plans (and therefore likely to change) but which is campaigning against the primary cause of de-greening.

The Conservative debate about the minimum wage continues today, with campaign group Renewal pushing for an increase, at least in line with inflation. Renewal is launching an interesting agenda today aimed at making capitalism work for groups who currently feel it fails them, such as the low paid and those living in deindustrialised towns in northern England. The group's work, 'Renewing Capitalism', is supported by Robert Halfon, the Tory MP who is always trying to work out ways of broadening the Conservative appeal. He says: 'It was a big mistake for the Conservative party to oppose the minimum wage. We must right that wrong by at least increasing it in line with inflation. We should not make the same mistake.

The Chancellor is scaring the horses up in Brum with his ‘hard truths’ speech on the economy. Meanwhile, the troops in Westminster have that ‘back to school’ feeling. Mr Steerpike has been asking Conservative MPs, ranging from loyalists to rebels and from old timers to young scamps, for their New Year predictions. Many of the answers followed a similar theme. ‘UKIP will wipe the floor with everyone in the European elections, followed by a wide ranging ministerial reshuffle which doesn’t include me afterwards,’ said one noisy backbencher. This feeling was echoed by one junior government figure: ‘Big changes to Cabinet in early spring, poll lead by mid-year and minority Tory government by end of 2014.

When pressed for a statement of their beliefs, conservatives give ironical or evasive answers: beliefs are what the others have, the ones who have confounded politics with religion, as socialists and anarchists do. This is unfortunate, because conservatism is a genuine, if unsystematic, philosophy, and it deserves to be stated, especially at a time like the present, when the future of our nation is in doubt. Conservatives believe that our identities and values are formed through our relations with other people, and not through our relation with the state. The state is not an end but a means. Civil society is the end, and the state is the means to protect it. The social world emerges through free association, rooted in friendship and community life.