Conservative party

Of all the publications from the Office for National Statistics this morning, the electoral statistics for the UK doesn’t sound like the most gripping. But it is the start of a very big political row, which is the boundary review. These electoral statistics will spark the formal review by the Boundary Commissions, which will then lead to new proposals for constituency boundaries later this year. Unsurprisingly, lots of MPs are nervous about this, especially Labour MPs who would face hostile constituency parties if they apply for selection in a new seat. The Labour whips alerted their MPs earlier this week, and are sending further updates once the Commissions make their announcements.

The number of Tory MPs who have yet to declare what their stance is in the EU referendum is dwindling. Some of those are away, including Tracey Crouch, who is on maternity leave and gave this very amusing response to those asking about her priorities, while others have decided not to reveal which way they will vote because they are holding public meetings between now and the vote, and want to stay neutral so that they can chair those. But some are either torn, or just trying to work out the best way of announcing their intentions. And for those MPs, the pressure is becoming rather more intense. Many were contacted by senior Tories, including George Osborne, last week in the run-up to David Cameron securing his deal (James has a very amusing detail on this in his magazine column).

Rather rashly, Boris Johnson published The Churchill factor: How one man made history last year. It was without historical merit, or intellectual insight, but Johnson did not intend readers to learn about Churchill. The biography was not a Churchill biography but a Johnson campaign biography, where we were invited to see our  hero as Winston redux. Both ignored party discipline and conventional routes of advancement, after all. Both were great company. Churchill stayed in the wilderness for years making a fortune from journalism, and so has Johnson. Churchill was a man of principle and so is… Hold on. That doesn’t work. It doesn't work at all.

George Osborne’s plan for this referendum was to turn it into a question of the future versus the past, for both the country and the Tory party. He wanted the voters to see the Out campaign as a bunch of people who wanted to take Britain back to a bygone era. Inside the Tory party, his aim was to have the talent and the ambition on the IN side with only old war horses and the passed over and bitter on the other side. But the events of the past 36 hours have blown this plan off course. Out now has one of the most popular politicians in the country on board in Boris, as well as one of the intellectual driving forces behind Tory modernisation and the party’s new social justice agenda in Gove.

At Cabinet this morning, every minister spoke in strict order of Cabinet seniority. This meant that Michael Gove was the first person to make the case for Out. I’m told that his argument to Cabinet was essentially the same as the hugely powerful statement he put out afterwards, which you can read in full here. The theme of the Cabinet discussion was, broadly, the trade-off between sovereignty and access to the free market. According to one of those present, where you fell on that question determined your position in the debate. One IN supporting Cabinet minister tells me that Oliver Letwin was the most persuasive speaker for that side of the argument.

David Cameron has claimed his deal with the EU gives Britain 'special status'. The PM has also said Brexit would be a 'leap in the dark' but with the high-profile loss of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson to the out campaign, it seems that not all Conservative MPs agree with him. Who are the other Tories who have turned their back on the PM? And which of David Cameron's party colleagues have voiced their approval for staying in the EU? Here The Spectator has put together a list of every Conservative MP – showing who is in, out, or yet to make up their mind about the big question of Europe.

David Cameron has conceded that he cannot force his Cabinet ministers to wait until the Tuesday after the European Council summit to discuss his deal with EU leaders. Sources in Downing Street have indicated that, if there is time, he could hold his Cabinet meeting in which he sets his frontbench free to take whichever stance they want in the referendum on Friday afternoon. Delaying the Cabinet meeting until its usual time of Tuesday morning would have been a great help to the Prime Minister, as he could have spent the whole weekend praising his own deal and making the case for Britain to remain in the European Union. But Cameron cannot simply think about the referendum itself.

If all goes according to David Cameron’s plan, he’ll have his EU deal by this time next week. But Downing Street still can’t be sure of which Tory heavyweights will be with Cameron come the referendum campaign, and which won’t. Even more than Boris Johnson, Michael Gove is causing Downing Street angst. As I report in The Sun today, Gove is ‘definitely wobbling’ according to one Downing Street source. Downing Street think the chances of him backing Out have increased significantly in the last 10 days or so. Gove himself has been telling people that he won’t make a decision until the deal is done. But those around him are now preparing for Gove coming Out.

Eurosceptics may have only a few days before their ministerial colleagues can join them in campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union. But they’re currently very unhappy at the sort of briefing they’ve been hearing about what might happen to those ministers after the referendum. The official line is that the Prime Minister will not sack anyone because of the position they take on Europe. But noises off suggest that this isn’t quite true: James reported in his Sun column last week that the Prime Minister has taken to telling colleagues ‘I’ve said I would have Outers in my Cabinet after the referendum. But I haven’t said they’ll be the same ones.

Here is a thought for all those Tory MPs calculating their personal advantage in the forthcoming EU referendum: unless the vote is an absolutely overwhelming Remain, the next leader of the Conservative party — whose day is no longer so far off — will come from the Leave camp. This will happen, obviously, if Leave wins, but also if Leave loses but does well, because most party supporters will only back someone who feels their pain and can reconcile them afterwards. Another thought: why would Nigel Farage want Britain to vote Leave? Then he would be redundant. Study him in the light of this thought and you will see that it explains his behaviour in the campaign.

A walk in the park for David Cameron at PMQs this week. Jeremy Corbyn asked six questions on housing, but they were all too long and lacked any edge: they were the opposite of forensic. Cameron simply batted them away and rattled off a list of what he had done and the supposed failings of the last Labour government. Even Corbyn’s tactics of sourcing questions from the public backfired on him this week. As he talked about an email he had received from Rosie the House fell about — assuming it was a reference to Rosie Winterton, the chief whip, who is known not to be her leader’s biggest fan. Angus Robertson, who can normally be relied upon to put Cameron under more pressure than Corbyn, didn’t have a successful outing either.