Conservative party

Personally, I’m in favour of gay marriage. But it is precisely the kind of issue that should be subject to a free vote and all the indications are that the government intends that when the legislation comes to Parliament it will be. So, it shouldn’t be a big deal that the Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson feels that he can’t support it, a view he expressed in a letter to a gay constituent that Politics Home has obtained a copy of. There are several other ministers who feel the same way. Indeed, I understand that the Chief Whip himself has grave reservations about the matter. It would be deeply intolerant to attempt to whip these ministers to vote against their consciences.

A coalition bust-up was avoided today by Vince Cable’s absence from the Commons for the urgent question on the Beecroft Report. Tory MP after Tory MP got up to make warm noises about a report which Vince Cable has been gleefully trashing, describing one of its proposals as ‘bonkers.’ That Cable couldn’t make it back in time from the north of England to appear at the dispatch box will have been a relief to the Tory whips; one of them was distinctly concerned about how the Tory benches would treat the Business Secretary when he heard about the UQ earlier. Indeed, it was telling that when Chris Heaton-Harris attacked Cable and Lord Oakeshott, Mark Prisk — the Tory minister answering the question — did not rebuke him.

Have you noticed the weird hold that François Hollande has over our politics? If you haven’t, then let me tell you: his name has been almost inescapable in Westminster over the past couple of weeks. Even in PMQs this week, David Cameron and Ed Miliband couldn’t resist of spot of Hollandery. Behind-the-scenes, too, there is much consideration being given to how the new French President should be treated. Political strategists recognise, as I’ve suggested before, that his election could be a significant moment in the life of the Eurozone and the European Union.

The Cameroons have long taken comfort in their belief that Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister. They have seen him as a firebreak between them and electoral defeat. Three things have driven their conviction that the Labour leader will never make it to Number 10. First, their belief that he fails the blink test: can you see him standing outside Number 10? Second, the next election will almost certainly be fought on the economy, Labour’s weakest area. Their final reason was a sense that he would never get the full support of those on the Labour side who know how to win elections. But recent events suggest that this confidence that Miliband will lose the next election might be misplaced.

The 1922 elections were not a clean sweep for the loyalist 301 Group slate, they missed out on one of the secretary position. But they have pretty much succeeded in purging the ’22 and the Backbench Business Committee of the so-called ‘wreckers’. Indeed, the only ‘wrecker’ who has survived is Bernard Jenkin who remains on the ’22 executive. But, significantly, I understand that Stewart Jackson, who spoke up in defence of Nadine Dorries at ’22 last week and was very critical of David Cameron at the weekend, came — in the words of one who has seen the actual voting numbers — ‘within a whisker’ of being elected to the executive. These elections are odd affairs, people vote on friendship as much as ideology.

Elections to the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers have always been a test of the relative strengths of the right and left of the party. But this year, the split is between those who are backing the broadly pro-leadership 301 Group slate and those who view the ’22 as more of an alternative voice. The contest has become particularly heated after last week’s fiery meeting of the ’22 Committee. Intriguingly, Stewart Jackson, who was barracked when he tried to defend Nadine Dorries for her ‘posh boys’ attack on Cameron and Osborne, is standing for the executive. Given what he wrote on Sunday and that he resigned as a PPS over the EU referendum vote, the support for him will demonstrate how many MPs are dissatisfied with Cameron’s leadership.