Conservative party

There was, as Freddy has said, something inevitable about the Church of England’s response to the imminent prospect of gay marriage. A convinced Anglican, who also has intimate knowledge of constitutional law and decoding legislation, recently told me in no uncertain terms that the government’s plan could force the church to schismatic ends because, for it, the division between religious and civil marriage is not clear. Marriage may be a sacrament before God, but it is most certainly a legal institution, defined and licensed by the State. This places the established church and its clerics in an exposed position should parliament chose to redefine marriage under English law. (See points 21 and 24 in the annex to today’s CofE document for further details.

Two issues are dominating Number 10’s thinking at the moment: Europe and the cost of living. How to deal with Europe is the biggest strategic challenge facing David Cameron. Cameron has to work out how to use this moment to advance the British national interest. But he also knows that Europe is an issue that could split the coalition and the Tory party.   Inside Number 10, it seems that it is becoming a question of when to announce a referendum not whether to call one. As I say in the Mail on Sunday today, senior figures there are pushing for the Tory commitment to a future referendum on the EU to be brought forward from the manifesto to this year’s conference season.

I hope that CoffeeHousers, regardless of political affiliation, will welcome a speech by a Labour leader that is explicitly patriotic, about England as well as the United Kingdom. As Ed Miliband said today, Labour has too often seemed either uninterested in Englishness or embarrassed by it, when there is nothing in its history and values that justifies this. Miliband was also right to emphasise the legitimacy and strength of ‘multiple identities’ — whether English and British, Scottish and British, Indian and British, or British and Muslim. And he was right to urge the English to ‘embrace a positive, outward looking version’ of national identity.

When David Cameron reshuffles his top team, one of the questions he’ll have to answer is what relationship he wants between the Conservative party and the coalition government. The Liberal Democrats have a deputy leader in Simon Hughes and a party president in Tim Farron who are quite often used by their leadership to try and put distance between them and the coalition. But there is no one who performs that role for the Conservatives.   Interestingly, Sayeeda Warsi has made clear that she would like to be freer to attack the Lib Dems. I also suspect that if she is moved in the reshuffle, whoever takes on the role will want more freedom to carve out a Conservative identity distinct from that of the coalition.

In a bid to make Tory MPs feel more involved, Downing Street is inviting small groups of them to see Andrew Cooper, David Cameron’s director of political strategy, and Stephen Gilbert, the PM’s political secretary. Patrick Rock, who acts as the political liaison to the civil service run policy-unit, also attends. The first of these meetings took place recently, with a dozen MPs attending.   Those who were present describe the presentation as being frank about the government’s recent difficulties, it uses the term omnishambles, but also trying to offer reassurance. There was much talk about how Margaret Thatcher’s position at this stage in the political cycle post 1979 and ’83 was far worse than Cameron’s is now.

There is now a general acceptance that the Tories’ 2015 election manifesto will contain a pledge, dare one say a cast-iron guarantee, that voters will be offered a referendum on Britain’s relationship with the EU. James first revealed this in his magazine column a few weeks ago. The aim is to see off the surge from UKIP, prevent Labour from opportunistically seeking Eurosceptic ground, and to counter Boris Johnson’s popular adoption of the People’s Pledge. Since then it has been taken as read that George Osborne is responsible for this gambit, which is reasonable given that he is the Tories’ chief strategist, and a likely contender in a future leadership bid.

It has become the conventional wisdom in Westminster that Jeremy Hunt’s career will turn on his appearance before the Leveson Inquiry tomorrow. Friends of Hunt have today been arguing that the Inquiry’s focus should be on how he carried out the quasi-judicial role. They are saying that once appointed to it, Hunt behaved — unlike Vince Cable — properly. They concede that Hunt’s texts to Fred Michel were overly familiar. But they maintain that, unlike Adam Smith’s texts, they gave away nothing about the state of the bid process.

Michael Gove’s appearance at the Leveson Inquiry has set the heather alight in Tory and journalistic circles. There is, among those who fret about the dangers to free speech created by the current mood, relief that someone has set out the case for liberty so clearly and without apology. While among Tories there is a delight at seeing one of their ministers articulate a Conservative worldview so clearly. Gove was, in some ways, at an advantage going before the inquiry. His department has no responsibility for the press and so he knew that the focus would be on his work as a journalist and his attack on Leveson, saying that the atmosphere around the inquiry was having a chilling effect on free speech. But, even given that, his performance was an impressive one.

Nick Clegg did not show his Berlin speech on the Euro crisis to Number 10 or the Foreign Office before releasing it to the media. This is quite remarkable. Up to now, there has been a recognition that while the Liberal Democrats may try and differentiate themselves from the Prime Minister on various things, the government must speak with one voice on the deficit reduction strategy and foreign policy. No credible country can afford to send mixed messages to either the bond markets or foreign governments. Clegg’s freelancing on this issue is a reminder of how Europe remains the biggest ideological fault-line in the coalition. When David Cameron formed the government, he hoped that the whole Europe issue could be parked until he had a majority of his own.