Conservative party

Pressure has been building all weekend for the Prime Minister to give some form of concession to his eurosceptic backbenchers in his statement on the outcome of the Brussels summit. James blogged shortly before David Cameron stood up in the Commons that Tory MPs were being reassured that they were going to like what they would hear him, which a pro-European MP suspected would be 'feeding a beast with an insatiable appetite'. This is the meat the Prime Minister threw to the eurosceptics: 'Far from ruling out a referendum for the future, as a fresh deal in Europe becomes clear, we should consider how best to get the fresh consent of the British people.

It’s funny how things turn out. David Cameron said in opposition that there was nothing worse than the Conservative party banging-on about Europe. These days, it bangs-on about little else. The prime minister is a repeat offender. He said on Friday that there should not be an in/out referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union. It’s a different story today. In an article for the Sunday Telegraph, Cameron says that he is not afraid of the words Europe and referendum. But don’t mistake that for a pledge. Cameron writes, ‘I don’t agree with those who say we should leave and therefore want the earliest possible in/out referendum. Leaving would not be in our country’s best interests.

At the first meeting of the 1922 Committee following the 2010 election, I was the only new MP to speak. I used my time to set out why I would support a coalition: the country was in an economic crisis and at war; we knew what needed to be done - deal with the debt and radically reform education, welfare, local government, healthcare and defence; and we knew no one else was going to do it. In the following two years my rebelliousness has stretched as far as two abstentions on votes against opposition amendments. The first was on a Labour amendment to extend national insurance contribution holidays for start-ups to the South East, and the second was an amendment on capping interest on payday loans.

Ed Miliband is going to have to start paying Nadine Dorries a salary if the Conservative MP provides him with any more quotes to fling across the chamber at Prime Minister's Questions. Today the Labour leader was able to draw from the deep well of Dorries' twitter feed when he faced David Cameron. Earlier in the day, she had sent these three tweets: 'I was at a dinner last night so didn't see Newsnight, however, if Osborne sent Chloe on re scrapping 3p he is a coward as well as arrogant.' 'Newsnight last night would have been a tough gig for a Minister with years of experience - Chloe is a good egg and didn't deserve that.' 'The submarine Chancellor sacrifices yet another Minister whilst he slips under the surface… again.

Talk to anyone in Downing Street and they can give you the four main reasons that voters cite for switching from the Tories to Labour: the Tory leadership is out of touch, the cost of living, immigration and welfare. The first two of these reasons are why the government has been prepared to risk further ridicule by changing the Budget again to postpone the 3p fuel increase planned for August until the end of the year. The timing of today’s move, just hours after Ed Balls said Labour would call a Commons vote on the matter, will attract much Westminster comment. But the Tories are confident that this will pass most of the electorate by.

The coalition’s plan for House of Lords reform will go to Cabinet on Tuesday. It could have a trickier time there than expected: some Tory Cabinet ministers who favour an elected Lords are deeply unhappy about the idea of using regional lists. But, even before Cabinet, one active Tory big beast has come out against the proposals. Boris Johnson savages the idea in his Telegraph column, declaring it to be ‘a bunch of tidy-minded Lib Dem nonsense.’ He makes the standard Tory arguments against it: the Lords works as it is, two elected chambers would inevitably clash and reform will just expand the numbers — and cost — of the political class.   The column is a reminder of the price that Cameron will pay with his own side for pressing on with Lords reform.

Michael Gove’s name is being muttered in parliamentary tea rooms, figuratively at least. The leak of his plans to replace GCSEs with a rigorous exam is opium to many Tories. Gove is well liked on the backbenches and within the party. And he also commands respect, being one of the few ministers who is not mired in catastrophe, although that may change as the pressure on primary school places increases and his opponents gain in voice. Odds on a Gove leadership are shortening, even though Gove is adamant that he does not seek the office. Even so, there might be overwhelming demand for him to stand.

There is a simple rule in Tory politics: do not cross Lord Ashcroft. There is little love between the Conservative leadership and Ashcroft, the man who sustained the Tories through the wilderness years but was left high and dry in 2010 during the furore over his tax affairs. Admiration curdled into contempt, epitomised by Ashcroft’s weighty critique of the Tories’ disastrous 2010 election campaign. Tax is back in the news and so, by chance, is his lordship. Ashcroft has written a short but devastating piece on the Tories’ present strategy. He writes: 'It is depressing to hear that plans are afoot to paint Miliband as the Michael Dukakis of British politics: part of a metropolitan elite with no understanding of mainstream concerns.

It is always sensible to pay attention to Ben Brogan's Telegraph column, if only because it so frequently seems to have been dictated by friendly chaps at the Treasury. Today's is no exception. Cunning Wee Georgie Osborne has had another one of his master-wheezes that, with a fair wind, will seal the next election for the Conservatives. Again. You see: ‘Conservatives yearn for red meat policies to please the voters. They want a political Plan B for a Tory majority in 2015 to replace the one based on the assumption of economic recovery and tax cuts that blew up in George Osborne’s hands last year. MPs wondering how to achieve a victory in today’s darkened circumstances want compelling measures that can be described in a few crisp words on the doorstep.

The most important event today is the Greek election, with its huge implications for the future of the Eurozone. But this morning, the political class is chattering about George Osborne because of the poll which Fraser blogged about earlier. Osborne is one of the more self-aware politicians that you’ll meet. One colleague says, only half-jokingly, that Osborne’s mood is the best guide there is to the future prospects of the government.  In recent weeks, Obsorne has not been in good form—his post Budget woes and the never ending crisis in the Eurozone appeared to be getting him down. As one person who works closely with him remarked to me recently, ‘That Tiggerish glint in his eyes had gone.’ But Osborne’s mood has improved in the last week.

Why was David Cameron so lukewarm in his endorsement of HS2 at PMQs today? (In response to a question about the project's future, he offered, 'I believe we should go ahead with HS2', which is rather than different to asserting that it will go ahead.) The project is – as one Tory minister has told The Spectator – ‘effectively dead’. Ross Clark has investigated why in the cover story of tomorrow’s issue. Here’s what he found: 1). George Osborne has turned against it. The chancellor and Tories’ strategic brain was once HS2’s biggest cheerleader, but experience of office has made him realise that Britain’s limited airport capacity is a bigger threat to economic growth.