Conservative party

Downing Street always knew tomorrow's gay marriage vote was going to provoke tensions. But what's interesting is how unsure Number 10 is about how to approach the free vote on the issue. The whips are not supposed to get involved on these votes, and besides a number of those normally twisting colleagues' arms to extract some loyalty are considering voting against the bill. But there are around 50 Tories whose votes will mean the difference between a Conservative majority for the legislation. Even though David Cameron is, as James explained in his column yesterday, personally committed to the legislation as a matter of principle, finding himself in the minority of his own party will dent his modernising zeal.

David Cameron arrived back in the UK this morning to newspapers full of talk of Conservative splits and plots. The moment of unity that followed his Europe speech has well and truly passed. There’s no doubt that the gay marriage is causing a ruckus in Conservative Associations up and down the country and that Conservative MPs will go through different lobbies on Tuesday night. To some extent, this division in the Conservative ranks was priced in. What was not is the continuing and increasingly frenzied leadership speculation. The Mail and The Independent this morning detail plans by allies of the Home Secretary Theresa May to position her for the leadership in the event of a vacancy.

David Cameron clearly rated Adam Afriyie's 'stalking horse' plot as a sufficiently ridiculous threat to make a joke out of it at Prime Minister's Questions this week. After their premature outing in the papers last weekend, the plotters might sensibly have gone to ground for some time while Afriyie fended off lunch invitations from journalists trying to get the measure of him. But according to the Mail and the Guardian, they're still at it, now with George Osborne in their crosshairs. They're clearly a determined bunch, plotting to deliver an ultimatum to the Prime Minister in May to replace his Chancellor if the Budget fails to revive the economy. That's quite some ask.

What a lot of fun William Hague had this afternoon in the Commons as he opened a debate tabled by the Prime Minister on Europe. 'I have not yet exhausted the list of the Coalition's achievements,' he told an MP trying to intervene. His speech was rather like a slow motion version of the PM's address last week, but with words like 'subsidiarity' added in for good measure, and a longer tour of how wonderfully robust the Tory party is on Europe. Though some Tory MPs made their own thoughts on the referendum clear (James Clappison called for legislation in this parliament for a referendum in the next, and Bill Cash said he'd rather the plebiscite take place before the European elections), the focus was on poking fun at the Labour party: a rare moment of Coalition unity.

Pity the staff at the British embassy in Bucharest. Only last month they were cheerfully banging the drum for Great Britain, telling Romanians what a swell country this rain-soaked archipelago is. You see: The GREAT campaign invites the world to take a fresh look at the UK, and is designed to promote Britain as one of the very best places to visit, live, work, study, invest and do business. Oh dear. Time to reverse ferret. Brother Forsyth reports that the government is so spooked by the appalling thought that plucky Romanians and enterprising Bulgars might think the United Kingdom a land of opportunity that they are considering a new advertising campaign targeting the EU's newest members: Britain is crap. Don't come here.

The camp supporting backbench Tory MP Adam Afriyie in a possible leadership bid have been busy, managing to get whispers of their planned coup into three Sunday newspapers (the Sun on Sunday, The Sunday Times, and the Mail on Sunday). Whether or not Afriyie is a popular backbencher who managed to soothe colleagues over toasted teacakes in the Pugin room, and whether or not he's the ideal person to lead the Tory party after Cameron, the timing for the Windsor MP of the plot appearing in print couldn't be worse. This time last week, it wasn't difficult to find a clutch of MPs who would gloomily mourn the direction their party was going in.

Claire Perry, the determined MP for Devizes, is very, very determined not to be set up as a 21st century Mary Whitehouse. Her job title, as the Prime Minister's adviser on preventing the sexualisation and commercialisation of childhood, might suggest the Tory MP is yearning for a more innocent bygone era. But she's insistent that she isn't anti-porn, or even a mother who snoops on her children: 'I'm in no way the Mary Whitehouse of this,' she tells me as she sits under a washing line in her office decorated with children's artwork. 'I am in no way old-fashioned, this is not some kind of anti-porn crusade. Amongst consenting adults, it's fine, it's just that it's not porn as we know it.

Today’s midday press briefing at the European Commission was of course dominated by questions about the Cameron speech. This was despite efforts by Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen, Barroso’s spokesman-in-chief. First she tried to downplay the implications of the speech by making an anodyne statement welcoming democratic debate in member states. Then she announced that questions on Cameron’s speech would be limited to three. A growl came up from the press corps that indicated she should think again. So she took more questions. She just didn’t much answer them. I asked Pia if she could describe for me any existing mechanism under present treaties by which Britain could claw back powers which have already been surrendered to the EU.