Brexit

Smiley, fluent and softly spoken, John McDonnell sometimes comes across as a bit cuddly. Yesterday Labour’s shadow chancellor was interviewed by Iain Dale at the Edinburgh festival. He said he’s looking forward to a boating trip on the Norfolk Broads. ‘My wife and I sail. But we sail badly. People get off the water when they see us coming.’ He felt he deserved a break after working with the Tories on a cross-party approach to the Withdrawal Agreement. ‘No one should have to sit opposite Michael Gove for six weeks. I did it for the country.’ Iain Dale quizzed him about Labour’s immediate threat: Boris. ‘The guy’s reckless. The guy’s unstable,’ said McDonnell. ‘I will move heaven and earth to stop a no-deal Brexit.

In the run-up to the referendum, a common argument against Brexit went like this:  “We should not leave the EU, because if we try, the EU will be capricious and irrational, it will not prioritise the welfare of its people, it will instead punish us, we must be afraid of that wrath, forget any merit, we must be prudent”. A similar argument is often discussed at length by Sir Ivan Rogers, and repeatedly published in The Spectator. It is both right and wrong. The people who believe it are not ‘Remoaners’, as some might claim: they are patriots. But I disagree. And for me, this argument is why I voted to leave. I am an autonomous and free human being. I am also a citizen of a society. I surrender my freedoms in order to make that society function.

It’s a strange beast, the internet. On Monday night, I was slightly reluctantly dragged onto Newsnight to discuss Brexit. Attentive readers will know that I very rarely write or speak about the subject. There are many reasons for this, one of which is that I said most of what I had to say three years ago when I cast a vote in a referendum. Another reason – I must admit – is that I have wanted little to no part in the bile-fest of the last three years. I would like us still to have a country after this, and there seems very little chance of that if both halves of it continue to spit at each other.

Does the arrival of Boris Johnson in Downing Street signal the end of the politics of branding and the beginning of the politics of principle? Can we already see in the announcements and actions of the Johnson Government a new style of politics? The early signs would suggest so. Boris's first speech outside No.10 was devoid of fluff. The promises – extra police, delivering Brexit on time – were clear and precise and will provide an easy way to judge his record. Another source of optimism is the clear difference between Boris and his predecessor. Whereas May stirred up resentments with misleading gender pay gap publications and talk of burning injustices, Boris seems eager to ditch the spin and take steps to make society more even.

Boris Johnson’s Downing Street is being quite clear that if the EU wants to talk then it needs to be prepared to reopen the withdrawal agreement. If the EU isn’t prepared to budge on this, the message is that there will be no deal. The EU isn’t inclined to take this threat that seriously right now. The view is that parliament will find a way to block the UK leaving without a deal or Boris Johnson will get cold feet. Even if the UK does leave without a deal, many in the EU reckon that within months the UK will be so keen to come back to the table that it’ll end up accepting the current agreement after all. So Boris Johnson needs to show that he can overcome any parliamentary effort to block no deal and that he can make it politically viable.

You have to admit that Brexit party MEPs have a fun job. Imagine turning up to work to insult your colleagues, ridicule your duties and still collect a pay cheque. As I am fortunate enough to enjoy my work, though, I don't think it is jealousy that makes me find at least some of their posturing obnoxious. “Every day MEPs get a “media briefing” from the EU,” Martin Daubney MEP informs us: No, in fact. If anything, the EU is offering evidence against bias. First, these words came not from an EU employee but British philosopher John Gray. Second, Gray does not call Brexit “far right” and specifically criticises the idea that it was an “isolated eruption of English nationalism.

Boris Johnson is running an outside / in campaign, I say in The Sun this morning.. If he’s to get the UK out of the EU by October 31st—the defining pledge of his leadership bid—then he’s got to get the public to put pressure on parliament. The new Prime Minister needs MPs to think that they’ll pay an electoral price for standing in his way. That’s why he is in full campaign mode: firing out popular policies, touring the country and making big speeches. A sizable poll bounce would mean that MPs would be far less likely to try and throw obstacles in Boris Johnson’s way.

Since entering No. 10, Boris Johnson has made clear that any route to a Brexit deal must involve ditching the backstop that currently sits in the withdrawal agreement. If that's not possible, he intends to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. The backstop was the major stumbling block for Theresa May passing that deal – something she failed to do three times – and her government had sought to secure a time limit to make it more palatable to MPs. Brussels refused to play ball. With Johnson asking for more drastic changes, will he have any luck? So far, the signs are not particularly positive.