Brexit

Philip Hammond doesn’t do box office. Unlike his predecessor George Osborne, he doesn’t do burgers either, with his austere pre-budget picture showing the Chancellor looking characteristically gloomy as, we’re told, he prepares Britain to be ‘match fit’ for the future. So what do we know about Hammond’s first - and last - spring Budget? For those who have accused Hammond of being too downbeat, there’ll be some glimmers of hope. It’s expected that the Chancellor’s ‘upbeat assessment’ of Britain’s economic outlook which he will deliver at the despatch box will mean the country’s growth forecast will be revised upwards - giving the Chancellor an extra £12bn to play with over the coming year.

If you want to judge the extent of the crisis that is paralysing the left, look at this morning’s Guardian. On the one hand you have an article from Abi Wilkinson, who tellingly doesn’t even mention the Labour leader’s name. Convincingly to my mind, Wilkinson argues that the May government ought to be in all kinds of trouble. May herself is an evasive and awkward politician. She is presiding over an NHS that has had more austerity than it can stand. The British Red Cross may have been guilty of hyperbole when it said the UK faced a 'humanitarian crisis' across the whole of its health service. But individual patients are finding that, as far as they and their families are concerned, a humanitarian crisis is exactly what they must endure.

You don't earn a nickname like 'Spreadsheet Phil' for being a showman. But is Philip Hammond's powder-dry demeanour and unwavering focus on the numbers actually his strong point? Yes, says the Sun, which suggests the chancellor’s cautious approach is exactly what Britain needs right now. The paper says that whereas Hammond's predecessors would use their Budget announcements to reach for ‘popularity-boosting giveaways’, not so the current incumbent at No.11 who takes a more sensible approach in saying ‘now is not the time for a spending spree’. ‘We couldn’t agree more,’ says the Sun, which warns of ‘greater challenges’ ahead.

Sir John Major does political intervention just right, doesn’t he? Never mind what he actually says. Once a year, twice max. Lob in a perfectly prepared hand grenade, wave and get the hell out. None of that terrible neediness of Tony Blair, still so stricken that he’s not in office. No children will cry, nor dogs howl, as they might at the biannual haphazard sight of Gordon Brown. Major is never hysterical, and never cheap, and he always disappears again within 24 hours. Precisely how an ex-prime minister ought to be. David Cameron, wherever he is, should be taking notes.

Theresa May might have won every Brexit vote in the House of Commons so far, but it’s getting trickier now. The House of Lords this week rejected the plan to trigger Article 50 without offering assurances to EU nationals, knowing that most MPs are sympathetic. I understand that the Tory whips are working hard to whittle down threatened rebellion at the 'ping-pong' stage. Given that everyone in Vote Leave pledged to protect EU nationals – as did four out of the five original Tory leadership contenders – it’s harder work. Quite a few rebels feel they need to make a point about the status of EU citizens. The whips will probably succeed, and it seems (this time) that the Lords will not send it back to the Commons again.

As Prime Minister, John Major was intolerant of opposition from within the Conservative party over the EU — memorably calling Maastricht rebels ‘bastards’. It was unwise, and the bad blood it created within his party has been swirling around ever since. Now that the tables have turned and Sir John now finds himself the rebellious outsider on Europe, it is tempting for those on the Conservative party’s Eurosceptic wing, who for so long were denounced as freaks, fruitcakes and swivel--eyed loons, to take the same approach. Their instinct is to denounce Sir John, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and others as dinosaurs seeking to deny the will of the British people.