Blue Wave

Yesterday’s elections were expected to be more important than midterms usually are in America, and in their own way they turned out to be. While the hotly anticipated Blue Wave of Democratic dreams failed to materialize, last night brought plenty of bad news for Donald J. Trump. The midterms repudiated the extremes of both parties while opening the door to two years of political torture for the President. This was a classic mixed verdict. As anticipated by most savvy election-watchers, Democrats took the House of Representatives, wresting it back after eight years of Republican control, while the GOP maintained their hold on the Senate, even adding to their seat total a bit. Neither case can be fairly depicted as a blowout. First, the House.

Fox News, the conservative standard-bearer, has projected the House of Representatives for the Democrats. And Republicans are doing better than expected in the Senate – their total could crest 53 seats. Compared to 1994, 2006, and 2010, this would appear a tamer reaction to an embattled president. Because of the hyped-up expectations for this elections, many on the left are going home disappointed tonight. Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams are on their way to the losers’ aisle. It’s not wrapped up yet, but a Democratic House is a Democratic House. Subpoenas and calls for impeachment from some on the Left are certain. It looks like a split decision. As Steve Bannon told the Spec on this scenario last month: ‘Stalingrad every day.

All day Election Day, everyone — well, everyone in the business — looks for early signs of the results to come. I heard reports from friends in real life and on Twitter that the lines at polling stations were far longer in the D.C. suburbs and New York City today than they were during the contentious Trump-Clinton contest of 2016. Such anecdotal data seemed to confirmed the predictions of most pundits that a ‘blue wave’ would see Democrats take over the House of Representatives and make it difficult for Republicans to keep control of the Senate. But of course cities of the elites would see a lot of enthusiasm today: They’re the centers of the #Resistance determined to vote against the president, even if he isn’t directly on the ballot himself.

Would you like to forecast a ‘better than expected night for the GOP’? Start saying things like ‘interest levels in the elections are broadly similar between the two parties — if Dems were going to have such a great night, why aren’t they ahead in this key metric?’ or, ‘remember the enthusiasm gap closed after the Kavanaugh hearings.’ On the other hand, if you want to make the case for the Blue Wave, you’ll probably find there’s even more data to help back you up. Start by looking to YouGov/CBS News’s final MRP model (the same approach that proved super accurate in last year’s UK general election) showing a likely 225-210 Democratic win in the House.