Barack obama

Tonight, the Republican primary race gets serious with a debate at the Ronald Reagan presidential library in California. This is the first debate that Rick Perry, the governor of Texas and the current frontrunner, has taken part in. The Republican nomination is now a far more attractive prize than many expected it to be. 53 percent of voters now disapprove of the job Obama is doing suggesting that he is beatable. At the moment, the Republican nomination appears to be Perry’s to lose. He is benefitting from both the troubles of the Tea Party favourite Michele Bachmann, her campaign manager has just stepped down, and Republican establishment unease with the former frontrunner Mitt Romney. What we haven’t seen yet is whether Perry can take a punch.

His presidential campaign is just a fortnight old, and already Rick Perry is soaring in the polls. The three major national surveys conducted since his announcement all give Perry double-digit leads over previous frontrunner Mitt Romney. He has also, importantly, taken the lead in Iowa and is now odds on to win both there and in South Carolina come February. This is certainly an encouraging position for a new candidate, but history suggests that Perry supporters should temper their optimism with a heavy dose of caution. Until the autumn of 2007, Rudy Giuliani led the Republican field by a similar margin to the one Perry has now. And Hillary Clinton's lead over Obama was even more commanding. Neither went on to win their party's nomination.

This is perhaps the biggest weekend yet in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. The candidates clashed on Thursday night in their third televised debate, and will contest the traditionally important Ames Straw Poll in Iowa today. In truth, as Alex says, neither the debate nor the straw poll will have that big an impact on the race. More significant is an event taking place more than a thousand miles from Ames, in Charleston, South Carolina. There, Texas Governor Rick Perry will announce his entry to the race. And judging by current polling and betting trends, he will start out as joint favourite. Until now, Mitt Romney has been the frontrunner, notionally at least.

Momentousness without momentum. That's what we're getting from America at the moment, as this all-crucial debt deal continues to stutter and stall. The main development in Washington yesterday was John Boehner securing enough Republican votes to pass his bill in the House of Representatives — only for it to be summarily tabled by Democrats in the Senate. What will follow over the weekend is yet more frantic negotiation between the Democrats and Republicans in Congress, as each tries to make their various plans more acceptable to the other, while also keeping their own die-hards on side. Meanwhile, the clock keeps on ticking down towards default: three days, 13 hours, 35 minutes...

There's a new favourite in the race for the Republican nomination to take on Barack Obama in 2012. Yesterday saw Mitt Romney hobbled from his number one spot - on betting website Intrade at least - by Texan Governor Rick Perry. Romney had been seen as the candidate most likely to secure his party's nomination next year ever since he finished second to John McCain in the 2008 primaries. However, support for Romney has never reached the levels expected of frontrunners, with many Republicans keen to vote for someone more conservative. Rick Perry may just be that man. Perry's position as (narrow) favourite is somewhat surprising when you consider that he's not officially running yet.

The US-Pakistani relationship is fast deteriorating. In May, I argued that unless President Asif Ali Zardari took decisive action against the ISI, the country's military would continue to undermine relations with the West. Last week, the New York Times reached the same conclusion, calling for the removal of Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha. As President Zardari did nothing — probably fearing a military coup if he did act — the situation has merely been aggravated. What's more, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned that the US could suspend military aid to Pakistan unless it took unspecified steps to help find and fight terrorists. And the White House has since confirmed that it is doing just that.

The New York Times reports that House Speaker John Boehner has urged his colleagues to reach a deal with President Obama over raising the ceiling on the national debt. So far, Republicans have been resisting Obama, fearful that tax rises and compromise would damage the party’s chances in next year’s election, which is expected to hinge on restoring America’s public finances. Boehner’s retreat has incited the presidential candidates, who have been campaigning this weekend. The New York Times has the full details, but here's a brief summary. Michelle Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty averred their opposition to raising the debt ceiling; a stance designed to court the party’s purists. Predictably, Mitt Romney adopted a more conciliatory position.

Five-thousand, ten-thousand, or fifteen-thousand? That's the question hanging in the air as Barack Obama prepares to clarify his withdrawal plan for Afghanistan this evening (or 0100 BST, if you're minded to stay up). And it relates to how many of the 30,000 "surge" troops he will decide to release from the country this year. Washington's money appears to be on 10,000, with half of them leaving this summer and half in December. But no-one outside of the President's clique really yet knows. His final decision will say a fair amount about his intentions in Afghanistan, or at least about just how fast he wants to scram out of there. What's really striking, though, is the emphasis being placed on the bill for Afghanistan.