Angela merkel

Angela Merkel is in London officially to talk about the G7 and unofficially to discuss David Cameron’s hopes for a reformed European Union that Britain can stay in. But while she’s here, she might want to ask after one of Cameron’s colleagues, Iain Duncan Smith. Duncan Smith likes to tell Tory constituency parties the tale of the time the pair attended a summit on benefits. Mostly the summit was attended by EU leaders, but Cameron sent IDS in his place. After sitting through a very long and dull speech from one of the delegates, Duncan Smith finally got his opportunity to speak. He began by saying how grateful he was it was his turn, and that he had almost lost the will to live by this point.

Ed Miliband’s office has complained that no-one told them about Angela Merkel’s visit to London, which takes place tomorrow. They are apparently very irritated about no-one telling them, even though the Foreign Office isn’t required to flag up visits like this anyway. But worse than that, they were given warning: in the newspapers. Here are the first few paragraphs of a story published by the Times on 27 December, entitled ‘Merkel puts culture and G7 on agenda for visit’: ‘Angela Merkel will make Britain her first overseas visit of the year in a sign of the importance that she attaches to her relationship with David Cameron.

We should all get used to reading stories about how Angela Merkel has warned David Cameron that if he persists with X, Y or Z she’ll no longer be able to support Britain staying in the EU. It is the nature of a negotiation that those involved in it will, at points, suggest that they will walk away if the other party continues to demand something. The skill is, obviously, to know whether the other person is bluffing or not. Now as Mats Persson points out, Merkel’s comments are not as definitive as they are being portrayed as in some places. But there is no getting round the fact that Merkel is determined to protect the principle of free movement while Cameron—ideally—would like to impose limits on it.

Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, has been appointed the new European Council President. Tonight, Tusk has had warm words about how imperative it is that Britain’s concerns about the EU are addressed. As Open Europe reports, he called the possibility of an EU without Britain a “black scenario.”   Tusk’s appointment is a mixed blessing for David Cameron. On the one hand, Tusk comes from a non-Eurozone country meaning that he’ll be sympathetic to Britain’s desire for single market protections for the Eurozone outs. The Ukraine crisis has also reminded the Poles of how important Britain is in terms of stiffening the EU approach towards Russia; meaning that Tusk genuinely would be loath to see Britain leave.

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_10_July_2014_v4.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss the EU Commissioner role" startat=732] Listen [/audioplayer]In recent weeks British government visitors to Berlin have been confronted with a persistent question: when will David Cameron make up his mind about who he’ll send to Brussels? Picking a European commissioner is a big decision: Tony Blair sent Peter Mandelson, who went on to become the EU trade commissioner. Gordon Brown nominated Cathy Ashton, who picked up the foreign affairs post. There is a tradition of Brits landing relatively big jobs — and, ergo, power and influence. But prime ministers need to send someone with enough heft and zest.

Getting Junckered was not an enjoyable experience for Downing Street. Not only has David Cameron lost his battle to stop the former Luxembourg PM becoming Commission President he has also discovered that Angela Merkel’s assurances to him can be trumped by her domestic political concerns. Considering how Merkel is the hinge on which Cameron’s renegotiation strategy turns, this is worrying for him. As I report in the Mail on Sunday, members of Cameron’s circle are now contemplating that the renegotiation might not deliver enough substantive change for the UK to stay in. As one of those who knows Cameron best puts it, ‘They might plump the cushions for us but the train isn’t slowing down and the points are still set the same way.

The family photo at this week's EU summit will be a particularly awkward affair. EU leaders will have just come from listening to the last post at the Menin Gate, the memorial to the British and Commonwealth dead of the Ypres campaign, but they will know that they are about to have an unholy row over dinner as David Cameron tries to stop Jean-Claude Juncker from becoming President of the European Commission. Aware of how bad all this looks, the head of the EU Council, Herman Van Rompuy, has been busy trying to prevent a row at Ypres. Cameron and Van Rompuy had a 'full and frank' discussion about the matter today, Downing Street says. But Cameron is still determined to have this fight; he isn't backing down despite only having the Hungarians for allies.

Although many MEPs believe that the European Parliament is the centre of the known political universe, in truth the goings on in Brussels and Strasbourg rarely trouble the attention of anyone who is not a dedicated EU geek. That said, the decision by the Conservatives' ECR group to admit the anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland party could have wider repercussions for Anglo-German relations, and therefore the prospects for Cameron's EU reform agenda. For those who are not familiar with AfD here is a potted history: the party was founded by German academics opposed to Merkel's Eurozone policies, specifically the bailouts. As it has grown, AfD has combined a more socially conservative policy agenda with populist rhetoric.

Angela Merkel is annoyed that David Cameron seems to be issuing threats to other European leaders in order to get what he wants. At a press conference concluding talks held by the centre-right EU leaders in Harpsund, the German Chancellor reiterated her support for Jean-Claude Juncker, and said: 'I made myself clear by saying that I am for Jean-Claude Juncker. But when I made that statement in Germany I also made the point that we act in a European spirit. We always do that because otherwise you would never reach a compromise. 'Thus we cannot just consign to the backburner the question of the European spirit. Threats are not part and parcel of that spirit. That is not part of the way in which we usually proceed.