Angela merkel

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/angelamerkel-sburden/media.mp3" title="Fredrik Erixon and James Forsyth discuss the challenges facing Angela Merkel" startat=36] Listen [/audioplayer]For generations, ambitious politicians have dreamed about having the power to run Europe — but as Angela Merkel can attest, it’s a horrible job. She didn’t want to end up with the continent’s problems on her shoulders, but things have ended up that way. The Greek economic implosion, the seemingly unstoppable wave of immigrants from north Africa, the menace of Russian aggression, the euro crisis — all the multiple, interconnected, crises battering Europe have ended up as Merkel’s problem.

David Cameron has to walk two tightropes on Europe, and at the same time too. The first is to negotiate a deal with other European leaders that satisfies the bulk of his Euro-sceptic party. If this was not difficult enough, simultaneously Cameron has to show voters that the European question isn’t consuming all of his government’s energies. For despite its importance, it still rankles relatively low on the public’s list of priorities. To address the latter point, I’m told that Cameron will make a major domestic policy announcement in the week of every EU summit in an effort to show that he is not taking his eyes off the home front.

It seems every week now there is a story about France and/or Germany ruling out EU treaty change and thereby putting pay to David Cameron’s EU reform push before it has even really begun. While this makes for good headlines, the reality is much more nuanced. Take today’s example: A leaked preliminary draft of a Franco-German paper on Eurozone reform reported by Le Monde and picked up by the Guardian, stated that in the short term (the next few years) the countries will focus on working within the EU treaties, which has been seen as a blow to Cameron’s reform push. There are some important points to keep in mind though. Firstly, this is not actually a shift in the Franco-German position.

Today’s huge Podemos rally in Madrid is a reminder that Syriza’s victory in Greece has emboldened the anti-austerity left across the Eurozone. What worries Angela Merkel and other northern European leaders is, as I say in the magazine this week, that any concessions to the new government in Athens, will lead to Podemos—a party which was founded less than 12 months ago—wining the Spanish elections later this year. But the country that most worries European policymakers isn’t Greece or Spain but France. Its economy is showing no signs of recovering and its politics are threatening to become very ugly indeed. A new poll published this week shows the Front National’s Marine Le Pen topping the first round of the French presidential election.

In the run-up to the Greek election, European figures were adamant that there wasn’t as much to worry about as people thought. They argued that Syriza wouldn’t come close to winning a majority and that it would have to do a coalition deal with Potami who would end up moderating its demands. This complacency was misplaced. Syriza came within a whisker of a majority and then formed a coalition with right wing nationalists, the Greek Independents, who agree with Syriza on very little other than the need to end EU-imposed austerity. Politically, it is very hard to see how the Greek situation can be resolved. Syriza’s entire rationale as a political movement is to renegotiate the terms of the Greek bailout.

There were very few smiles at Downing Street this afternoon as a mustard clad Angela Merkel spoke of a 'moving moment'. Yet that steely resolve had to crack eventually and with the final question at her joint press conference with David Cameron, the German Chancellor's perma-frown turned into an impish grin for just a split second. Scolding ITV's Tom Bradby, Mrs Merkel announced that she 'never answered speculative questions' and she certainly would not be starting today, danke very much. 'I think the policy of not answering speculative questions will make all press conferences much shorter in the future', piped up David Cameron, seeing a chance to wrap things up. 'Another excellent German invention'.