Europe

What would the exit negotiations look like if Britain voted to leave the EU? Well, Open Europe tried to give us an idea today hosting a war game sketching out what would happen next. (Seb wrote about their work on the renegotiation earlier). It left me with the view that there would be a second vote on the proposed exit terms. If Britain does vote out in a referendum, it is then—under Article 50—a member of the EU for two years while it tries to negotiate an exit deal. I suspect that the package would be, despite the UK’s trade surplus, relatively ungenerous.

Remember that shopping list of EU reforms that Conservative party members sent ministers in the summer? Well, they've finally got a reply. I've got hold of a letter to members from Europe Minister David Lidington, which answers some of their concerns and gives us an interesting glimpse into where Conservative party thinking currently stands on European reform. The first point worth making is that while Lidington's letter is very upbeat about the prospects of reform in Europe, the minister focuses on the opportunities for Europe-wide reform, rather than the likelihood of a new relationship with the EU for the UK.

Vince Cable is surely right in his comments yesterday that the most likely scenario for Britain leaving the EU is if Ed Miliband is Prime Minister after the next election. The theory, that you hear a lot in Westminster, goes like this: Miliband is forced by public opinion into promising a referendum on EU membership, he then becomes Prime Minister and is obliged to hold the vote. But by this time, the Tory opposition is advocating a No vote; arguing that a better deal can be negotiated. The country then votes No and the rest of the EU, for once, accepts the result of the first vote. Many senior pro-European Labour figures feel that this scenario is all too plausible.

What with Britain’s dreadful performance in the PISA educational rankings, there has been comparatively little attention given to another international league table– Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. The good news is that Bulgaria and Romania, with whom we will become much more intimate next month, are already in the EU’s top 5 for corruption, placed 2nd and 4th, with Greece, Italy and Slovakia filling out the leader board. I don’t object to Romanian and Bulgarian EU citizens being able to come to Britain as such, I object to the very idea of these countries joining the polity of which I am a member. But then I’m not too happy about being part of the same state as Greece and Italy, for the same reason.

After hours of really insightful discussions about bacon butties, MPs have finally approved the third reading of the #LetBritainDecide Bill in the Commons. The legislation will now pass to the House of Lords, where the fun really begins. I've already written that the Bill has served its purpose in uniting the Conservative party. But it is worth noting that Labour's position has not moved one jot during this process. Douglas Alexander might have been right when he told the Chamber that 'this is not a bill about the Conservatives trusting the public but about Conservative backbenchers not trusting a Conservative Prime Minister', but that scarcely excuses the Labour position, which is to not trust the public at all on Europe.

Labour is enjoying some success with its narrative that the government is running scared of all sorts of awkward votes and campaigns at the moment, from plain packaging to payday loans. Yesterday Miliband's spinners were briefing that this included the Immigration Bill amendment tabled by Nigel Mills and supported by influential backbenchers such as 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady. It now has 49 signatures. It's worth noting that Mills' amendment is the latest example of how Tory Eurosceptics now work together to get what they want from the Prime Minister. I explained this unity between the factions in a recent Telegraph column: 'Now all these factions have united into a motley coalition that meets regularly to discuss strategy.

David Cameron's restrictions on welfare for new migrants have pleased Tory backbenchers - but not enough for them to drop their Commons campaign for the transitional immigration controls to be extended. There are now 46 Conservative MPs signed up to support it, and I've just spoken to Nigel Mills, who tabled the amendment, who said: 'The Prime Minister's announcements are welcome steps in the right direction. However the issues with our current levels of unemployment and pressures on other public services would not be tackled so I still believe we need to keep the restrictions in place, and so I will still proceed with my amendment.' Labour is briefing that it was the growing support Mills's amendment that pushed Downing Street into announcing all these new restrictions today.

For months now, Number 10 has been fretting about what to do about Romanian and Bulgarian immigration. From the end of this year, any Romanian and Bulgarian will be able to move here in search of work. Downing Street knows that if they come in large numbers it’ll negate everything that the government has done to try and get immigration under control. Fairly or not, it’ll be fatal to the Tories’ reputation for competence on this issue. David Cameron is, as today’s Times and Mail reveal, now planning a major intervention on this issue. He wants to achieve three things. First, show that his government is handling the issue better than Labour did.

My man in Dublin calls with joy in his voice to tell me ‘the Troika’ — the combined powers of the EU, the European Central Bank and the IMF — have signed off Ireland as fit to leave their bailout programme and return to economic self-determination. This is a remarkable turnaround in just three years since I visited the Irish capital in the midst of rescue talks — to find a nation in shock, staring at an €85 billion emergency loan facility that equated to €20,000 per citizen, a collapsing banking system and a landscape scarred by delusional, never-to-be-finished property developments.

Sydney - Mr Cameron resisted the calls to boycott the [Commonwealth Heads of Government] summit and will therefore have a chance to meet and have talks with Tony Abbott, who also said this week that he would not ‘trash’ the institution by joining in a boycott, and nor would he give lectures to other countries, especially those that had endured a civil war with atrocities on both sides. This can only be a good thing from Mr Cameron’s point of view, for he seems to go out of his way to avoid meeting genuine conservatives when at home, and he may learn something.

MPs have just voted on the first set of amendments to James Wharton's #LetBritainDecide bill. There is still a great deal more debate to be had in the Chamber, but based on this morning's offering, it's not worth clearing your diary for this report stage, unless you enjoy filibustering and mischievous use of obscure parliamentary procedure to delay a bill. This morning we had a geography lesson from Mike Gapes about the populations of each of the overseas territories, an account of the 'grilling, gruelling' debate that Martin Horwood enjoyed at a school in his constituency, and a debate about what it is that the people of Gibraltar take joy in.

In case you've been wondering what that strange feeling of tension in the air across the country is, the #LetBritainDecide bill returns to the Commons tomorrow for its report stage and third reading. There is, actually, rather a lot of valid tension - in as much as a backbench bill that will never become law can create valid tension - over the legislation this time around. The first reason is that Labour's Mike Gapes has tabled a fantastic series of amendments to try to wreck the bill, which join his fantastic series of amendments that he tabled at committee stage. The second is that there are many more Tories planning to vote for Adam Afriyie's beleaguered amendment than the whips had initially assumed.

Ten days before the last election, The Spectator interviewed David Cameron. By this point, it was quite clear that a hung parliament was the most likely result of the next election. But Cameron repeatedly refused to discuss which parts of the Tory manifesto were non-negotiable. He told us that 'spending a lot of time trying to fillet your own manifesto is not a particularly good use of time in the actual campaign.’ The next campaign, though, is going to be very different, I argue in the magazine this week. We already know that Cameron’s promise to renegotiate Britain’s membership of the EU and hold an In/Out referendum applies regardless of whether Cameron is leading a coalition or a Tory majority government.

You know you’ve been in politics too long when you're onto your tenth 'Red Tape Challenge'. I remember Neil Hamilton as Deregulation Minister in the Major Government in ’92 promising to slash the jungle of red tape. Every time I cheered. Every time the flood of Regulations and Directives kept pouring out of the Whitehall and Brussels machine. But hardened Red Tape Analysts of all stripes will notice something a bit different about yesterday’s news of the Prime Minister's commitment to implement the deregulatory proposals of the Business Task Force. He has explicitly linked it to the historic Renegotiation and Referendum strategy launched in his Bloomberg speech. So this time we'll actually have a chance not just to stem the flood of regs, but to turn off the stopcock.

The government's business taskforce will give a presentation today to Cabinet on its report on slashing EU regulation. David Cameron has already indicated that he will support the 30 recommendations in the report, compiled by M&S chief executive Marc Bolland, Kingfisher chief executive Ian Cheshire, ATG Access managing director Glenn Cooper, BTG chief executive Louise Makin, entrepreneur Dale Murray and Diageo boss Paul Walsh. European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso has said that he will look to resolve complaints about legislation burdening companies, and Cameron sees this as an important way of showing that Britain can lead on making the case for reform in the European Union as a whole.

Rather to my embarrassment, I find that I missed last night’s episode of the BBC2 three-part series on The Ottomans, Europe’s Muslim Conquerors, in which I briefly featured. So Heaven knows what I actually said in it; it’s been a while since filming. But I’m rather hoping that the point I wanted to get across did, viz, that it’s nuts, barking mad, insane, away with the fairies, for Britain to be agitating for Turkey to be part of the EU. On David Cameron’s last visit to Turkey in 2010, he expressed anger at the delay in Turkey’s admission to the Union and blamed opponents for playing on fears of Islam in order to advance their case. Which more or less mirrors the rhetoric from Labour on the same subject.