2028 election

Will Jon Ossoff’s luck last long enough for a run at the presidency?

Once upon a time, the export crop of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket was whale oil. Nowadays it is money, harpooned by visiting campaigns from deep-pocketed donors at anchor in their summer seaside retreats. In the peak season of July and August, the islands’ social rhythms are dictated by money-harvesting events, wrangled by local hosts jostling for the social éclat that comes from securing a high-profile honoree. By late August this year, the territory had already been worked over by a series of hopeful visitors with hands outstretched, such as the rising Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico, Hakeem Jeffries in eager pursuit of the House Speakership that is almost in his grasp, Maryland Governor Wes Moore and others questing the donor dollar.

ossoff

Vance is back in the box seat

“We gotta take care of business this November,” said Vice President J.D. Vance, demurely, at the Republican convention last night, “then we’ll worry about what comes next.” He was referring to the chants of “28! 28!” that emanated from the exuberant MAGA crowd – an appeal for him to be the next Republican presidential nominee. The message of the night was clear, though. Following something of a wobble in the early months of 2026, Vance has re-emerged as the clear favorite to succeed Donald Trump. For now, the MAGA inheritance, and all its problems, seems to be his.  Trump has reportedly stopped doing his private “Marco or J.D.?” polls among house guests, friends and Rupert Murdoch.

Vance

Will the Iran deal destroy J.D. Vance?

When it comes to foreign policy, Donald Trump is neither hawk nor dove. He’s a dealmaker who plays differing sides off each other. In so doing, he ends up disappointing warmongers and peaceniks in equal measure. Rather than blaming Trump for a bad deal, his pro-Israel supporters will tie its shortcomings to Vance On 28 February, when he launched Operation Epic Fury, Trump’s more dovish supporters felt betrayed. The president who had campaigned against regime-change wars began a new conflict by channeling George W. Bush. "To the great, proud people of Iran I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand," he said.

The growing conservatism of the Democrats

Kamala Harris is destined to be the Democratic nominee in 2028 because the American left is now conservative. Democratic politics is now based on two suppositions: The existence of a “silent majority” and the reflexive defense of even the most unlovely institutions.  The conservative left glorifies the intelligence agencies and praises generals as the defenders of the republic, while insisting that most Americans despise MAGA and its revolutionary aims. It’s why Joe Biden’s attorney general described the FBI as “patriotic public servants” and the Democrats ran Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA operative, in Virginia.

Kamala’s comeback?

Political candidates aren’t people these days so much as brand logos for the business of politics. Their stock – the ticker tape of their approval – goes up or down, but after any politician has reached a certain level of mass recognition, their name and face hold value. It doesn’t matter, necessarily, if most voters think they’re a joke. Their image can drive media engagement just as their donor files and old campaign data can be profitably mined. Kamala Harris is a perfect example. She was, all but her most stubborn supporters agree, a disastrous presidential nominee.