2024 presidential election

Here comes everybody. With former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, former vice president Mike Pence and, er... North Dakota governor Doug Burgum set to announce their presidential bids this week, the 2024 GOP primary is starting to feel a little crowded. Maybe too crowded, according to Chris Sununu. The New Hampshire governor had been weighing a run but today told CNN’s Dana Bash that he will not seek his party’s nomination.

What does Mike Pence, a family man, a devout Christian, occupant of the top spot on Donald Trump’s enemies list ever since January 6, 2021, and rival of his old boss in the race for the 2024 Republican nomination, think of the fact that the former president has been found by a jury to be “civilly liable” for the sexual abuse of E. Jean Carroll?  Asked by NBC for his reaction, he sidestepped: “I really can’t comment on a judgment in a civil case,” he said. “It’s just one more story focusing on my former running mate that I know is a great fascination to members of the national media, but I just don’t think it’s where the American people are focused.”  Vivek Ramaswamy cried foul play.

Asa Hutchinson says we need a “course correction” in the Republican Party. There are many Republicans who agree with him. But with weak name recognition and some viewpoints that are out of step with the Republican base, is there a lane for the seventy-two-year-old former governor of Arkansas, who formally launched his campaign Wednesday? At the moment, he’s the only declared candidate who is explicitly attacking Trump — albeit in his folksy, gentlemanly way. So, even if there’s no lane for him to win the GOP nomination, can he damage Trump’s chances, potentially assisting DeSantis — or will he and other long-shot candidates simply splinter the anti-Trump vote and help to ensure the former president’s nomination? Hutchinson is at 0.

The shaky foundations of Biden 2024 Joe Biden promised to “finish the job” in a video announcing his 2024 run released Monday. A year and a half out, the president’s reelection pitch has serious flaws and yet, with Ron DeSantis failing to make any headway against an indicted Donald Trump, you can understand why Biden and his team might be feeling confident about their chances. Before we unpack that paradox, a quick reminder of the weaknesses of Biden as a candidate next year. There’s his age, of course, and all the embarrassments it brings and stage-managing it demands. (Note that he will not have the cover of a pandemic this time around.) There’s the unimpressive economic record. (His launch video was notably light on claims about the health of the US economy.

Joe Biden’s campaign officially launched with a video released in the early morning hours featuring a message bizarrely limited in its focus to a single threat: the return of Donald Trump. https://youtu.be/ChjibtX0UzU Of course Trump is the odds-on favorite to be the next Republican nominee, but Biden’s announcement ad had none of the optimism you typically see from incumbent campaigns proud of what they've achieved. If the economy is doing as well as the White House regularly claims, you'd think that would be at the center of his launch and appeal for re-election. Instead, the mood of this ad was dark and foreboding — fear the Donnie from over the sea and his dark and terrible return! Biden’s team is doubling down on their 2022 strategy with this approach.

This past weekend Tucker Carlson gave the keynote address at the Heritage Foundation’s Fiftieth Anniversary Summit and Gala. His speech wasn’t about his show on Fox, or the media or the industry itself. It was steeped in the political and cultural themes the country is headed for ahead of the 2024 election.   Carlson aptly set the table of topics for politicians to pick up, from the current debate around gender and Critical Race Theory. He highlighted key issues where conservative leaders should be responding, such as Greg Abbott recently in Texas as he works to pardon Daniel Perry for his role in the shooting of a BLM protester.   Tucker has served as a sort of kingmaker for American conservatives and Republican politicians in recent years.

Joe Biden is considering making his re-election announcement as early as Tuesday.  After months of teasing his inevitable run with awkward comments like telling Al Roker he will be pushing out Easter eggs, it would seem the moment is upon us.   So what does this mean for 2024?   Well, there’s still a long way to go. And as 2016 showed us, primaries make for plenty of surprises. Still, even with the unknowns, there’s a good chance that we end up with a 2020 re-rerun: former president Donald J. Trump versus President Joseph R. Biden. Because that worked out so well for everybody last time!  There are plenty of problems currently plaguing the country, from inflation to train derailments.

Maybe Niccolò Machiavelli was not the first political consultant, but he remains one of the best. Ron DeSantis might solicit his advice before deciding whether a 2024 campaign for the White House is wise. DeSantis could start with the penultimate chapter of The Prince, “What Fortune can do in human affairs, and how it can be resisted,” which is famous for its imagery. Machiavelli first likens fortune to a raging river, whose flood cannot be met head on but whose fury can be dissipated by dams and dykes built in advance. Later he says Fortune is a woman who yields to a young man who comes on strong, even roughly. The lesson for a forty-four-year-old DeSantis is obvious: seize the moment. She’s yours for the taking — if you’re bold.