2020 election

When it comes to being tolerant and inclusive on social media, Joe Biden’s campaign staff can’t quite seem to get on the same page as their candidate. Last week, Biden preached the need to increase funding for police across the nation, a message seemingly at odds with his party and his team. Biden campaign videographer Sara Pearl has tweeted that cops were worse than pigs, as well as hashtagging #DefundPolice. She was not disciplined or terminated from the campaign, which suggests Biden himself is not actually in charge (he repeatedly defers to his handlers when taking questions, both in person and on video conference) .

This COVID-infected campaign season has brought more than its fair share of surprises. Virtual conventions, turnover at the top of the Trump campaign, sudden swings in previously steady polls. It’s a year like no other, Still, one pillar of presidential electioneering remains: Joe Biden needs to pick a running mate.The vice presidency is a peculiar office: at once vestigial and essential. The office has few defined duties. We’ve all read the quote of John Nance 'Cactus Jack' Garner — FDR’s first VP — who described it as 'not worth a bucket of warm piss’. Yet as Garner’s successor’s successor Harry Truman showed, who a candidate picks to play second fiddle can be one of a presidential aspirant’s most monumental decisions.

Donald Trump announced Wednesday that he is demoting his current campaign manager Brad Parscale to the role of senior adviser and will be putting Bill Stepien in charge of the campaign. The shakeup comes less than four months before Election Day and follows a series of polls showing former vice president Joe Biden with a formidable lead over Trump. The move is not altogether shocking — rumors swirled around DC weeks ago that Trump was growing increasingly unhappy with Parscale's ability to run the campaign amid the coronavirus shutdown and the nationwide riots. The failed rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma only soured the President's view of Parscale further.

Is the Death Star about to implode? Trump campaign manager (at least at this writing) Brad Parscale bragged some weeks back that he was about to pull the big guns out to demolish the Biden campaign — a 'juggernaut campaign (Death Star)'. It was a weird comparison considering the Death Star goes down for the count in two Star Wars movies. But then again, Parscale is also the guy who stated that millions were pining to show up at Trump’s ill-fated rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Since then, Trump canceled another rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, claiming that bad weather had forced his hand. Not much is going well for Trump, who seems about as stable as Emperor Palpatine these days.

In an opinion column for the New York Times, Thomas Friedman proposes that Joe Biden debate Donald Trump only if the President meets two conditions. Trump must release his tax returns and agree to a non-partisan panel of fact-checkers. The fact-checkers, he says, should point out the debaters’ errors in real time and conclude the event by summarizing their findings. Among really bad ideas, this one is a prize-winner. Let us count the reasons why. Trump’s failure to release his tax returns is a legitimate issue to debate, not a precondition for one. Biden is free to raise it on the campaign trail and debate stage, just as Hillary Clinton did. Remember, the voters have already dealt with this issue once.

It’s a difficult time to be a pollster. For roughly 40 years, phone surveys have been the go-to polling method. Now, the internet is marking its territory.Just six percent of Americans answered phone surveys in 2018, continuing a steady decline in the new millennium that experts attribute to increasing instances of spam calls. Pew Research found little correlation between polling response rates and accuracy, but there are lingering concerns over the cost of these studies.‘For phone surveys the trend line up in cost and trend line down in participation are problematic,’ Courtney Kennedy, director of survey research at Pew, told me. ‘In five to ten years, if not sooner, those trends may not be sustainable.

Even the most ardent Trumpist must admit that it has been a bad few months for the President. The COVID-19 crisis robbed Donald Trump of his strongest argument for re-election, the economy, and made his administration seem ineffectual. He was wrongfooted by the riots after George Floyd’s death. The country has been in chaos under his watch. He has looked weak, even disorientated. His polling slid.Yet Trump, ever the reality entertainer, loves a comeback story — and last night he launched his. Under the heads of Mount Rushmore, on a blue-white-and-red dais, the President marked Independence Day with a fiercely patriotic and defiant speech. It was an address that tackled, head on, the crisis that has rocked America in recent weeks.

Politicos have spent years asking what would happen to the Republican party post-Trump. Establishment types prayed that he was an anomaly and that the party would return to ‘normal’ after his reign. Slightly more savvy observers worried that the Trump base would slip back toward the Democrats once they lost their champion and the GOP would have to rebuild a winning coalition. Both relied on an assumption that Trumpism cannot exist without Trump. That was wrong. Elitist politicians and the mainstream media have been so obsessed with denouncing Trump’s egregious character that his voters developed a reflexive tendency to defend the man rather than his policies. But nearly four years later, many Trump voters feel unsatisfied with his list of accomplishments.

Lexington, KentuckyIt wasn’t supposed to be like this. Not that Amy McGrath wasn’t supposed to win Kentucky’s delayed primary for the US Senate seat held by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The problem was she was supposed to win in a cakewalk. Instead, she eked out a victory over State Representative Charles Booker, who made a late charge from the impoverished West Side of Louisville during a wave of racial unrest and deadly protests that have wracked Kentucky’s largest city for weeks.McGrath is a former Marine bomber pilot who lost a high profile bid to unseat Rep. Andy Barr two years ago. It wasn’t long before Chuck Schumer tapped her to run against his Republican counterpart in the Senate.