Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

It’s Republicans who benefit from high voter turnout now

The turnout tables have turned “When we vote, we win.” So goes a favorite Democratic Party aphorism. I heard it from Amy Klobuchar campaigning for Terry McAuliffe in Northern Virginia last month. And I’ve heard it from countless others, in races across the country, as they urge audiences to register to vote, tell their friends to register to vote and get out there ahead of an election. Behind this slogan is the assumption that high turnout helps Democrats. But Tuesday’s election is the latest evidence that this dynamic is changing, and may have even reversed. In Virginia, turnout was up 26 percent on the last gubernatorial contest and the Republican won. The ten counties with the biggest increase in vote totals were all won by Glenn Youngkin.

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Josh Mandel, true conservative?

A veteran, some career politicians, and a venture capitalist-turned-author meet on a debate stage. No, this isn’t the start to a joke. These are the Republican candidates vying to replace Ohio’s moderate GOP senator, Rob Portman, who announced his retirement in January. Since then, a flurry of contenders have thrown their hats into the ring. Josh Mandel is the former treasurer of Ohio who's run a mostly spectacle-laden campaign, sucking up to Trump and lighting masks on fire. J.D. Vance is the author of Hillbilly Elegy and is popular among nationalist and postliberal thinkers in Washington and on Twitter. The race so far has been a circus. Yet the differences between the two headliners couldn't be more stark.

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The Trump talisman doesn’t work anymore

Glenn Youngkin’s victory over Terry McAuliffe is a loud wake-up call for the Democrats, who attempted to fuse the GOP candidate for Virginia governor to Donald Trump’s hip and failed miserably. Joe Biden won the commonwealth by ten points a year ago — yet Youngkin beat his Democratic opponent by two points. A slew of other Republican victories in key states have led to frantic analyses on cable news and soul-searching postmortems about why the Democrats proved so unpopular. Sure, anti-incumbent sentiment and Biden’s historic disapproval ratings haven’t helped, but one clear takeaway has emerged: the Trump boogeyman no longer works.

I’m a racist, you’re a racist, we are racists all

What news network did you watch on election night? Thankfully we all had plenty of options. There was CNN, where John King's magic wall grows ever more granular: "we're moving the Kelleher household into the leans-Republican column, Wolf, though their dog remains undecided. Now next door to the Smiths..." There was Fox News, where loud people shout at each other until Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum finally pull over the car and tell everyone to knock it off. And then there was MSNBC. Oh, Lord, was there MSNBC. There did we find Nicolle Wallace, one of the network's fastidiously objective anchors, declaring that Virginia governor-elect Glenn Youngkin "worshipped at the altar of Donald Trump.

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Actually Youngkin’s victory shows Trump is still strong

Eventually, November 2 will be seen as a key date in American history. I am not thinking of November 2, 2021, however, the day of Glenn Youngkin’s stunning, delicious, gratifying victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Important though Youngkin’s victory was and is, it was prepared for and defined by a preceding triumph. The date I am thinking of is November 2, 2020. That was the date on which Donald Trump signed the executive order establishing the 1776 Commission, the purpose of which was to “encourage our educators to teach our children about the miracle of American history and make plans to honor the 250th anniversary of our founding.” 1776, mind you, not 1619.

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Manchin and Sinema: Cassandras of the Senate

Tuesday was a very bad night for the Democratic Party. They lost the Virginia governorship and House of Delegates, almost lost the New Jersey governorship, and lost several local school board seats in crucial electoral states such as Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado. Blue states that kept schools closed or mostly shuttered for the duration of the pandemic now play host to legions of angry, fed-up parents. Nationally, Joe Biden’s approval ratings are crashing harder than Hunter Biden after a stint at the Chateau Marmont, and his domestic agenda is stalled in Congress, thanks to two Democratic senators who clearly saw the writing on the wall and the red wave coming: Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

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No sex, please, we’re national conservatives

Orlando, Florida   Cockburn just got back from the second annual National Conservatism Conference in Orlando, Florida. The ballroom of the Orlando Hilton can hold more than a thousand people. A little snowbird tells Cockburn that Yoram Hazony, the event's organizer, was in panic mode in the days before the summit. Not enough people had paid for the $315 ticket or $2,500 VIP pass. It seems even DC politicos had better things to do on Halloween than listen to Josh Hawley scream about porn. Cockburn hears that every right-wing organization in attendance received emails from Hazony begging them to help ship out more people. In the end, the official turnout was 700 attendees — though a hundred of them were the ladies and gentlemen of the press, and most of them were on a freebie.

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The Grand Old Duke of York attacks an Epstein victim

If one was to look up the dictionary definition of "brass neck," it should come with a picture of the Grand Old Duke of York, grinning inanely and posing in his regimental finery. Obstinacy has been a steady feature of his life, but one only brought into full public view since his entanglement with Jeffrey Epstein. Prince Andrew seems incapable of listening to anyone who is neither extremely wealthy nor a member of the British royal family — and judging by his recent antics, both of those sectors of society are given short shrift, too.

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Maryland gubernatorial candidates push child vax mandates

There were plenty of lessons for Democrats to learn from the shock victory of Republican Glenn Youngkin in Tuesday night's gubernatorial election in Virginia. Perhaps the most important is that Terry McAuliffe should have focused more on local issues instead of nationalizing the race. Youngkin was able to tap into the ire of local parents protesting their school boards on a litany issues, including critical race theory and transgender bathroom policies. An often overlooked point in debates about critical race theory (and whether or not it is being taught in Virginia schools) is that the parent movement started in response to pandemic-related school closures and the shifting standards of teacher's unions and school boards for reopening.

Democrats shed more Latino voters

Biden’s normalcy problem The problem with promising a return to normalcy is that you can only do it once. That’s one of the lessons from the Virginia governor’s race, where Terry McAuliffe’s emphasis on the dangers of Donald Trump fell flat. In other words, what worked in 2020 hasn’t worked in 2021 and looks unlikely to work in 2022. That’s all true, but it’s also worth remembering that the strategy pursued by McAuliffe didn’t even work especially well last year. Yes, Joe Biden capitalized on dislike of the former president. Trump fatigue delivered Democrats the White House. But the strategy didn’t work further down the ballot. Biden outperformed other Democratic candidates on the ballot. The party lost seats in the House.

Just say no to vaccine mandates for kids

I live in Montgomery County, Maryland. It’s one of those places where you see lawn signs proclaiming “In this house, we believe in science.” Naturally, our Democratic leaders have consistently ignored science over the last year, at least when it comes to COVID mitigation. Here in Montgomery County, our return to normalcy is currently being held hostage in exchange for near-universal vaccination of our least at-risk residents. If you believe that local governments are in a hurry to surrender “emergency” powers, I have a bridge over the Potomac to sell you. Maryland’s governor, Larry Hogan, has dropped our indoor mask mandate. But we still have a locally mandated one in place. Our county leaders reckon that they know better.

New York’s next party animal mayor

The first post-Trump Republican When Glenn Youngkin clinched the Republican primary in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, he was a blast from the past: a throwback to the sort of establishment GOP types that predominated before 2016. By defeating Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe and painting the state red, he has offered a vision of the future, a blueprint for GOP success in the Biden era. It also makes him the first post-Trump Republican. Contrary to the core message of the McAuliffe campaign, Youngkin is not “Trumpkin.” And Virginia’s voters could see that for themselves. The governor-elect’s early-hours victory speech last night was a far cry from the tenor of the MAGA Republicans who have set the running in recent years. But nor was he anti-Trump.

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The McAuliffe clown car crashes

Of all the clowns to come prancing out of the Terry McAuliffe campaign car in recent weeks, it was the Muppets that finally got me. McAuliffe recently ran a get-out-the-vote commercial that featured several Sesame Street-style puppets singing about how much they love the people in their neighborhood. "Except for Larry who doesn't vote," they finish, upon which some poor schlub comes bumbling in and they all stare at him judgmentally. Next up: Snuffleupagus on why he's passionately in favor of rolling back voter ID laws. Or something. The ad technically wasn't cooked up by Team McAuliffe; it appears to have been created in 2018 by the left-leaning PAC Priorities USA. But the fact that they decided to dust it off despite it being so creepy and coercive speaks volumes.

Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin (Getty Images)

Youngkin wins Virginia governorship in wild upset

Republican Glenn Youngkin won the Virginia governor's race against Democrat Terry McAuliffe on Tuesday night, shattering Democratic hopes of turning the commonwealth permanently blue. CNN and the New York Times projected Youngkin would win Virginia just after 12:30 am on Wednesday. The Times had Youngkin leading with 50.9 percent of the vote to McAuliffe's 48.4 percent with more than 95 percent of the total votes tallied. McAuliffe won Loudoun County by 10.5 percentage points, indicating that he would not rake in the massive votes he needed in the highly populated blue and blue-leaning counties. Biden, comparatively, won Loudoun County by 25 points during the 2020 election.

The decline and fall of the NYC GOP

The decline and fall of the New York City GOP It’s a good idea to steer clear of predictions, especially on Election Day. But I’m going to throw caution to the wind and make a bold call: the Democratic candidate will win New York’s mayoral contest. OK, that's not too brave a prediction. When the votes are counted, Eric Adams, the ex-cop who clinched the Democratic nomination with a moderate, tough-on-crime, pro-business message, will triumph by a massive margin. Curtis Sliwa seems like a nice enough chap. With his red beret, history of crime-fighting entrepreneurialism and tiny apartment full of cats, he evokes a more colorful, grittier time in his city’s past.

‘Let’s go Brandon’ is a rallying cry for freedom

“Let’s go Brandon” started in the most apropos way imaginable: NASCAR driver Brandon Brown was euphorically thanking Larry’s Lemonade and other sponsors for his win at the Talladega Superspeedway when the crowd erupted into a sing-songy “F*ck Joe Biden!” chant (because, why not?). The reporter — either purposefully or by mistake, we don’t know — did what the media does best and warped reality. “You can hear the chants from the crowd — ‘Let’s go Brandon,’” the reporter said. And so launched the meme that sank a thousand bipartisanships. “Let’s go Brandon” is now commonplace code for conservatives everywhere. It’s emblazoned on T-shirts, hats, banners, and billboards, and is plastered all over the internet.

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Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin (Getty Images)

The Youngkin blueprint

As much as former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe would like voters to believe it, Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin is not Donald Trump. Yet Youngkin has inspired the same level of desperation and hysteria as the former president from his opponents and the media. The Lincoln Project celebrated Halloween a few days early this year by sending young Democratic activists to a Glenn Youngkin rally dressed as white nationalists. They came clad in the Charlottesville special: white button downs, khaki pants, camo hats and carrying tiki torches. Images of the trick initially spread on social media with the allegation that the individuals were Youngkin supporters.

The hidden cost of Biden’s border complacency

The hidden cost of Biden’s border complacency Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. That phrase, a truism of negotiations which became a cliché in Britain politics during the UK-EU wrangling over Brexit, should be borne in mind by Democrats confident that Build Back Better is a done deal. Yes, Biden’s flagship legislation will almost certainly pass, but many details remain unresolved. And the tight legislative arithmetic means there is plenty of scope for last-minute trouble. Politically inconvenient turbulence lies ahead for Democrats. Perhaps the most flammable issue still under discussion is immigration.

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Michelle Goldberg and the art of the Big Lie

Lies come in all shapes and sizes, colors, odors, textures and tastes. Some are only little white lies, but more often the accompanying adjective suggests something unpleasant. Damnable lies used to be the most condemned, but today the foulest of all perfidious, incarnadine, silken and sulfurous lies are Big Lies. Thus when New York Times columnist Michelle Goldberg wants to reassure progressive voters that they can ignore the story about a ninth-grade girl who was raped (i.e. forcibly sodomized) in a girl’s restroom in a Loudoun County, Virginia school, she serves up her diversion under the title “The Right’s Big Lie About a Sexual Assault in Virginia.

Did Biden lie about his meeting with the Pope?

Pope Francis met with Joe Biden on Friday. It’s always a boost for a world leader to be snapped smiling with the Pope. But for Biden, who flashes rosary beads during stump speeches and has a habit of crossing himself when talking about his political opponents, the visit may have involved a presidential fib. Since Inauguration Day, Biden has been locked in a dispute with America’s Catholic bishops over his public support for abortion — a position which developed in curious tandem with his rise up the Democratic ticket during the last election cycle, even while B-roll of him hugging nuns played in his campaign ads.

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What’s wrong with Queen Elizabeth?

Is Queen Elizabeth II unwell? Rumors have been circulating through the British and American media for over two weeks, and the British public are worried. First came the ninety-five-year-old’s unprecedented use of a walking stick public. Then came an overnight hospital stay, which royal retainers tried to cover up. And now she has canceled her appearance at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow on her doctors’ orders, and will be sending a recorded video message instead. Buckingham Palace has released a photograph showing the queen in her usual good spirits. Yet the frailty of the recently-widowed queen and her Glasgow no-show send a worrying message. Queen Elizabeth is dedicated to her duty.

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Ayanna Pressley cuts the cord

Cockburn had thought he'd seen it all. But now he learns that DC has reached a new low in the annals of Swamp incompetence. Democratic staffers in Representative Ayanna Pressley's office can't figure out how to turn their phones back on after setting them to go straight to voicemail for over a year and a half. Every Capitol Hill rat would agree that the worse job in a congressional office is answering the phones. From dusk to dawn, deranged boomers light them up, demanding Representative Joe Blow do something about their loud neighbors, or fix their TV, or help them pay their rent. Many of these callers don't even live in the lawmaker's district or state. It's an exhausting task usually reserved for the lowest of the low — interns.

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America isn’t leading the fight against climate change

President Joe Biden is set for his rendezvous with climate destiny at the Scottish Event Campus in Glasgow on Monday. The president left Washington on Thursday empty-handed after congressional Democrats abandoned an attempt to put his infrastructure and climate package to a vote. “I need you to help me. I need your votes,” Biden implored them. “I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that the House and Senate majorities and my presidency will be determined by what happens in the next week.” At least he wasn’t invoking anything as serious as the future of the planet to get their backing. Nancy Pelosi weighed in, according to Politico’s Laura Barrón-López, telling her colleagues that overseas parliamentary leaders had asked whether American democracy can survive.

Why Virginia’s ‘culture war’ matters

The culture war’s irregular verbs Irregular verbs abound in US politics. When it comes to social and cultural disagreements, the conjugation goes something like this: I am standing up for my principles, you are waging an irresponsible culture war. “We don’t have time to be wasting on these phony, trumped-up culture wars,” said Barack Obama at a Terry McAuliffe campaign event in Virginia last weekend. “This fake outrage that right-wing media pedals to juice their ratings, and the fact that he’s willing to go along with it instead of talking about serious problems that actually affect serious people? That’s a shame. That’s not what this election’s about. That’s not what you need, Virginia.

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Andrew Cuomo deserves more than a single criminal complaint

Ex-governor of New York Andrew Cuomo has been named on a criminal complaint for “forcible touching the sexual or intimate parts for the purpose of degrading or abusing another person.” How the mighty fall. This time last year Cuomo was riding high on popularity nationwide as the go-to pandemic politician. There were whispers of him replacing Joe Biden on the ticket for president. All the major news networks fawned over him and helped him win an Emmy award for his “effective use of television during the pandemic.”  Cuomo and his giant ego later remarked that the Emmy board members forgot to mention his “sense of humor, charisma, good looks or charm.

Joe Biden takes his failures on tour

How’s the ice cream in Rome? Joe Biden is about to find out. Word is he is excited about the gelato, which is A-OK, since it may distract him from the fact that he has nothing to report when he gets there. The president — I mean, Joe Biden — was supposed to reestablish “normality” to an office so badly bruised by the mad tweeter — no, make that “ex-tweeter” — who came before. “Normality” was one big selling point. The other was Biden’s vaunted foreign policy experience. Reality check one: was Joe Biden’s performance at that town hall with Anderson Cooper last week an exhibition of “normality”? Or was it yet another disagreeable instance of elder abuse, parading a man suffering from senile dementia before the cameras?

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Moves Like Macker: a short history of Terry McAuliffe’s terrible dancing

Cockburn’s rug-cutting days are behind him. An unfortunate misunderstanding with the wife of an Ecuadorian chargé d’affairs during a Georgetown salsa class means he now steers well clear of the dancefloor. But he learned enough in his time to know that Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic candidate for Virginia governor, has a strong claim to the title of worst boogier inside the Beltway. The Macker’s moves gained fresh attention when the former governor, floundering in his bid for another stint in his old job, started shaking his hips alongside Joe Biden at a rally in Arlington this week. Everyone else on the stage seems to know what to do: stand, smile and wave. Pretend we’re not bombing in the polls, pat each other on the back, hold our hands in the air.

The beginning of the end of the filibuster

The beginning of the end of the filibuster The Democrats’ never-ending struggle to find something that all of the party’s 50 senators can agree on has claimed many victims: Joe Biden’s popularity, a good night’s sleep for those poor reporters who cover the Hill 24/7, Joe Manchin’s ability to walk the corridors of the Capitol unimpeded, Kyrsten Sinema’s freedom to use the bathroom without being heckled. But could Biden’s administrative travails be about to claim a more serious casualty? Listen carefully and beneath the din of reconciliation negotiations, you can hear the foundations of the filibuster crumbling. When the president was asked about the Senate rule in a CNN town hall last week, he said he was “open to fundamentally altering it...

The MAGA infiltrator is sad, not brave

Last weekend brought some minor internet drama courtesy of Amanda Moore, a progressive activist who outed herself as having spent the past year “infiltrating” right-wing groups. On Twitter, she posted pictures that she'd taken with various luminaries of Trumpworld such as General Michael Flynn, MyPillow founder Mike Lindell and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. She also claimed to have been given a counterfeit vaccination card from a member of a QAnon conspiracy group and to have worn a wire the whole time, recording the details of her meetings and chance encounters held under false pretenses. “We were literally at the same events,” she crowed at a photojournalist who sent a somewhat vulgar tweet mocking her.

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Bail fail

Deal or no deal? When is a deal not deal? When it’s the negotiations over Build Back Better among Capitol Hill Democrats. For days, party leaders have been talking up the progress they have reportedly made. Over the weekend, the administration openly contemplated the possibility of putting a framework agreement in place before the president jets to Europe on Thursday to meet the Pope and thrash out a climate commitment with world leaders in Glasgow. But there is scant evidence to suggest Democrats are anywhere near the white-smoke moment when it becomes clear that Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have secured the votes they need. In fact, most indicators point in the other direction.