Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

How Stacey Abrams blew it

Atlanta, Georgia “Ms. Abrams, public opinion polls in our state show support for the right to abortion, Medicaid expansion and banning assault weapons. You are on the side of public opinion on each of these issues, yet you are behind in almost every poll. Why?” Conservatives snorted at veteran Georgia newsman Chuck Williams when, in his decidedly Appalachian tones, he asked that as his opening question during Stacey Abrams’s first debate with Brian Kemp. Many on Twitter considered it the ultimate softball: why don’t voters like you as much as us journalists, Ms. Abrams? You’re so great! I didn’t see it that way — Williams’s question could be read as a damning indictment of Abrams’s fortunes in the years since she first stood for the Georgia governorship.

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trump

Why Trump jumping in early would be a mistake

Donald Trump is expected to announce that he is running for president again next week on November 14, according to multiple reports and chatter near the Trump Organization. The only question is whether he does it even earlier — listening to allies like Matt Gaetz who think he should announce as soon as tonight to take credit for what Republicans anticipate will be a clear red wave. This seems like an uncharacteristic mistake on Trump's part. The announcement, whether it comes this week or next, is premature. It's unlikely to forestall any significant potential competitors — and might actually serve to embolden some. The most powerful tool Trump has is the ability to jump in as a former president overwhelmingly popular with Republican voters and instantly clear the field.

Is democracy on the ballot tomorrow?

Is democracy on the ballot?  Joe Biden has chosen to make his final pitch to voters all about democracy. That was the subject of his speech in Washington last week. The hastily scheduled event bore all the signs of being the president’s own idea. He returned to the democracy theme on the campaign trail this weekend, including at a big rally in Philadelphia with Barack Obama on Saturday. “Democracy is on the ballot,” Biden said on Thursday. In California yesterday, he said “you can’t call yourself a democracy or supporting democratic principles if you say, ‘the only election that is fair is the one I win.’” There’s a lot not to like about Biden’s democracy rhetoric.

The debt ceiling battle lurking after the elections

Though many pundits may not be able to see past Tuesday’s midterm elections, as soon as the voters decide which party will hold the reins of Congress, the country will witness its first reminder that elections have consequences. The 2022 contests will have a near-instant effect on US fiscal policy. At some point between mid-December and January, the United States will hit its credit limit and need to either increase it or risk defaulting on its financial obligations. Since the Barack Obama years, Republicans in Congress have turned what used to be a pro-forma vote on the debt ceiling into a political cudgel.

Will this election finally be the end of Betoism?

Democrats across the country should be grateful for what Republicans are about to do: rid them of a nagging disease known as Betoism. Beto O'Rourke, the erstwhile congressman from El Paso, Texas, who has far more glossy national magazine profiles than winning campaigns, is about to go down to defeat in his attempt to unseat centrist conservative Governor Greg Abbott. Abbott is a popular governor and quite capable in his own right of popping wheelies over most Democrats. But Beto has approached his run with all of his usual nationally tested talking points recycled from his idiotic presidential crusade, designed to go viral on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and via the T-shirt worn by your daughter's boyfriend who is still trying to find himself after sophomore year.

Manchin’s rebuke shows how toxic Biden’s energy views are

It’s not often that a senator launches a brutal, frontal assault on a president from his own party. It’s even rarer when he does it just before a national election. But that is exactly what West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin just did to Joe Biden. At issue was Biden’s recent speech attacking coal, a bedrock of the West Virginia economy. Manchin was furious over Biden's promise to shut down all of America’s coal-fired power plants. That view might be red meat for Biden’s audience of green-power advocates and rich California donors, but it is poison in West Virginia. And it is those West Virginians who elected Manchin, the only Democrat still standing in a state that is now deep red. Manchin didn’t just criticize Biden.

The Pelosi/McCarthy feud at the heart of the midterms

Republican House minority leader Kevin McCarthy doesn't like Nancy Pelosi. In this, he's hardly alone — the list of those who don't like Nancy Pelosi is long and includes Republicans, Democrats, moderates, progressives, intelligence officials, hair stylists, health nuts, probably a few farm animals and single-cell organisms. America's speaker of the House is polarizing in the same way that a rocket booster might be said to be noisy. Yet in McCarthy's case, he has good reason not to like Pelosi: she doesn't much like him either. After McCarthy last year criticized a mask mandate in the House of Representatives, Pelosi called him a "moron.

Tudor Dixon (left) and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (right) (Getty Images)

Could Gretchen Whitmer lose in Michigan?

The gubernatorial showdown in Michigan has quickly become one of the most exciting races heading into the 2022 midterm elections. Just a few months ago, it seemed that incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer would easily secure re-election. Now, she is neck-and-neck with Republican Tudor Dixon. Things looked good for Whitmer early on, at least partially because the Republican primary was a mess. More than a dozen candidates threw their hat into the ring for the scandal-spoiled race. One of those candidates was arrested for his role in the January 6 riot at the Capitol building, while multiple others were disqualified as part of a signature forgery scheme.

Why these midterms will be the crime elections

The crime elections The District of Columbia’s City Council might seem a strange place to start a political newsletter a few days out from the midterms. As Democrats will never miss an opportunity to remind you, voters in Washington, DC will not get a say in a race that will help decide control of Congress. But a meeting of city leaders this week is an instructive part a national story that will be central to next week’s vote. On Tuesday, the DC Council voted 12-0 to support a rewriting of the capital’s criminal code. Reforms include reduced mandatory minimum sentences, the expansion of the right to jury trials for most misdemeanors, a broadening of the opportunities for early release and the elimination of accomplice liability in felony murder cases.

Poverty is a major issue in the midterms

My friend here in rural Pennsylvania is the director of our local anti-hunger program. It’s orchestrated through the YMCA and has been ongoing for years, mostly providing supplemental food for rural children. But the program started running at full throttle when Covid hit in March 2020, and now, more than two years later, my friend tells me they’re doing about 25 food distributions a month — more than they were doing at the height of Covid. What’s more, he’s seeing twice the number of people lining up for free food, and 85 percent of those people have jobs. “When people think of hunger, they think of poverty,” my friend says.

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Democrats made Kari Lake a star

In the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election, the national media and the Hillary Clinton campaign devised a plan to elevate Donald Trump and so-called “lunacy” over a field of up-and-coming Republican politicians. According to New York Times journalist Amy Chozick, who was embedded with Hillary Clinton’s campaign from inception to death, campaign manager Robby Mook called a meeting with an agenda of specifically asking “How do we maximize Donald Trump?” Chozick also noted how Mook “salivated when a debate came on, and Trump would start to speak. ‘Shhhhh,’ Robby said, practically pressing his nose up to the TV. ‘I’ve gahtz to get me some Trump.’” We all know how that worked out.

Eight Democrats we all hope lose this November

It is midterm election season, an important period on our political calendar as it marks that there's only two years to go until the next presidential election. And while something called the "blue wave" supposedly took hold last summer, the latest polling shows that Democrats are in trouble. How much trouble? You do hate to wish ill on a party running a campaign based on third-trimester abortion access and an imagined threat from brownshirts. But given the choice, here are eight Democrats we wouldn't mind seeing ousted this year. 8. Representative Jerry Nadler Nadler presided over both impeachments of Donald Trump and is a fairly reliable progressive. The New York rep is not the most inept Dem out there — but then he did almost dislocate his nose trying to remove a Covid mask.

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White House deletes tweet bragging of Biden’s role in inflation crisis

You know the Democrats are grasping at straws when you see the White House Twitter account praising President Biden for this year’s increased Social Security checks. Particularly, Cockburn is at pains to point out, as the increase in Social Security is indirectly indexed to inflation. "Seniors are getting the biggest increase in their Social Security checks in ten years through President Biden's leadership," the White House bragged on Tuesday. Even Twitter's in-house moderators were taken aback, deigning to slap a "context" label on the post. After helpful users added the missing context on Wednesday, the White House's tweet mysteriously disappeared. How curious!

The meaning of Biden’s midterm meandering

What Biden’s midterm meandering reveals On Tuesday night, Joe Biden characterized next week’s midterms as “a choice between two vastly different visions for America.” It is just one of the ways in which Biden has painted the vote as a high-stakes contest. Earlier in the year, the focus was on “ultra-MAGA” Republicans with the November contest framed as a “battle for the soul of America.” Now he has fallen back on a tried-and-tested Democratic strategy of fear-mongering over Republican designs on Medicare and Social Security. Hardly an indicator that the president and his party think things are going well. But as striking as Biden’s closing message is, where he is delivering it really drives the message home.

A woman sits with her dogs outside Union Station March 22, 2016 in Washington, DC (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

Union Station is the perfect backdrop for Biden’s speech

Less than a week out from the 2022 midterm elections, the White House announced that President Joe Biden would be delivering a speech warning of alleged "threats" to democracy. The backdrop for the address tonight that will almost assuredly accuse his fellow countrymen of being extremists and traitors? Washington, DC's Union Station. In many ways, Union Station is the ideal backdrop for a speech by the leader of the Democrat Party. It is the perfect embodiment of what the left's foolish and deranged policies have done to our nation: reduced a once thriving and majestic place into a crime-infested trash heap. Just seven years ago, I interned down the street from Union Station.

Saving San Francisco

San Francisco mayor London Breed held a press conference on October 5 concerning her city’s most deadly problem: the open air drug market in the Tenderloin neighborhood. The speakers included the police chief and two newly appointed allies of the mayor: the district attorney, Brooke Jenkins, and the supervisor for the district adjacent to the Tenderloin, Matt Dorsey. The message from each of them was clear: the police and the district attorney would no longer ignore open drug dealing and public drug use, which has become endemic in downtown San Francisco. “Let’s be clear: selling drugs is not legal,” the mayor said. “Using drugs out in the open is completely unacceptable.” The city could be forgiven for needing the reminder.

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We should be better than Paul Pelosi conspiracy theories

Always give it three days. This is a golden rule of journalism that requires reporters and commentators to wait when speculating on big salacious stories. It's a rule that works, but not when it's ignored, as it has been by both sides of the political spectrum in the case of the attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of the Speaker of the House. Democrats pounced, as usual, on their claims of MAGA extremism; meanwhile, too many on the right have indulged in disgusting conspiracy theories about the assault. On Sunday morning, less than two days after the news of the assault broke, the new Twitter head honcho Elon Musk weighed in. Responding to a tweet by Hillary Clinton alleging a political motive, Musk tweeted that there was a tiny chance that something else had prompted the violence.

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Tim Ryan has big ‘divorced guy’ energy

Has Tim Ryan thrown in the towel? The Democratic candidate for Senate in Ohio won’t know the final outcome in his bout with J.D. Vance for another week. So why, Cockburn asks, does he give off the downtrodden vibe of a man locked in a custody battle? “I’m at my wits’ end. I don’t know what else I can say,” the congressman tweeted yesterday evening, presumably with a shotgun to his chin. “If we don’t meet our final end-of-month fundraising deadline tonight, we risk losing this race — and Ohio could fall off the map.” Cockburn wonders how neighboring Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia would feel about Ohio falling off the map. Extending Lake Erie southward a few hundred miles could offer some lucrative real estate opportunities.

America’s military isn’t ready for a war with China

China’s 20th Party Congress concluded on October 23, and President Xi Jinping secured a norm-breaking third term as leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). With the Politburo Standing Committee stacked with close confidants and dissent virtually wiped out, Xi is the strongest he has ever been. Xi has also redoubled the Party’s commitment to taking the island of Taiwan, by force if necessary. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said that China “was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline.” The alarm has been repeatedly sounded by American military officials, with speculation that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could occur as soon as 2023.

Why the Democrats’ ‘election denier’ trope is backfiring

In New Hampshire, the race between Democratic senator Maggie Hassan and retired Army Brigadier General Donald Bolduc is heating up. Politico revealed on Friday that the GOP super PAC Sentinel Action Fund, encouraged by Bolduc’s recent surge in the polls, confirmed a $1 million ad buy for the Republican. Do Democrats still think Bolduc’s defeat is a sure thing? During the primaries, Democrat-aligned groups sure seemed to. They found the idea of a Hassan-Bolduc matchup so appealing that they actually boosted the pro-Trump Bolduc by donating to his campaign. Why did they like him so much more than his opponent Chuck Morse? Well, Bolduc is an "election denier.

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Why journalists shouldn’t be on TikTok

Americans: watch your backs. Last week, Forbes released a bombshell report that ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, the popular video recording and meme app, was planning to monitor and track the physical location of Americans. It’s not the first time there have been national security and human rights questions swirling around ByteDance, the China-based technology company that owns all of TikTok’s offshore data and could easily be leveraged by the Chinese government. Forbes would not specifically say which Americans ByteDance was targeting, but it would not be too farfetched to assume they would be influential figures in media and politics — the same folks China tracked during Hong Kong’s volatile freedom and democracy protests.

Politicians’ backstabbing family members are the worst

Don’t ever take sides with anyone against the family. I recall Michael Corleone’s warning to Fredo from The Godfather every time I see a political candidate’s family members denounce him in public. Even mobsters understood that family comes first. Not in agreement are the fourteen relatives of US Senate candidate Adam Laxalt of Nevada, who have endorsed his opponent. Ten of them likewise posed for a photo with the state's Democratic governor in 2018. One of Laxalt’s cousins accuses him of “using the family name to pursue a political career,” a claim you’ll only hear because she’s using the family name to advance it.

Hate and hoaxes at Twitter headquarters as Musk takes over

“The bird is freed,” tweeted Elon Musk last Thursday, when he acquired full ownership of Twitter. The day before, he strode into Twitter’s San Francisco headquarters carrying a white ceramic wash basin to impart the message that his new ownership should “sink in.” Musk has repeatedly signaled his intention to liberalize the platform by relaxing its limits on free expression. Since taking over, he's stated that Twitter protocols and account bans will remain in place pending review by an internal, ideologically diverse “content moderation council.

Bolsonaro falls as South America tilts toward socialism

After a bruising campaign, the leftist former president of Brazil Lula Ignacio Da Silva appears to have won back control of the Palácio da Alvorada, the Brazilian presidential residence. Lula defeated conservative incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by the narrowest of margins and is now poised to bring back socialist leadership to the world’s fourth-largest democracy. However, the result was by no means a blowout for Lula and his Workers' Party, which polls had suggested could win a landslide victory. In reality, Bolsonaro outperformed expectations just by taking the vote to a second round, while his Social Liberal Party maintained control of Brazil's congress. Nevertheless, the outcome marks an incredible comeback story for the 77-year-old Lula.

Remembering Mussolini’s March on Rome

Shortly after 11 on the unseasonably warm Monday morning of October 30, 1922, a 39-year-old, one-time schoolteacher-turned-political journalist — and former Socialist Party activist — named Benito Mussolini stepped down from a train arriving at Rome’s Termini station. He had traveled in overnight from his home in Milan, and before embarking he told the local station master, pausing to cast his black eyes up and down the empty platform, “I need to be punctual. From now on there must be no more delays.” This was the source of the sardonic joke that at least under Mussolini the trains always ran on time.

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On the ground with Obama, Warnock and Abrams in Georgia

College Park, Georgia Former president Barack Obama came down to Georgia stump for Senator Raphael Warnock and gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams. But more significantly, the 44th president of the United States dedicated a good chunk of his stage time on Friday to mocking Warnock’s opponent Herschel Walker. In a move reminiscent of his 2011 White House Correspondents’ Dinner speech — which supposedly provoked Donald Trump to run for the presidency in 2016 — Obama performed a stand-up bit to demonstrate that Walker’s proficiency as a Heisman Trophy-winning football star did not equip him to serve in the US Senate. “Let’s do a thought experiment,” Obama said. “Let’s say you were at the airport, and you see Mr. Walker, and you say, ‘hey!

All signs point to a red wave

All signs point to a red wave It’s now just under two weeks until the midterms. Judging by the mood music on both sides of the aisle, all signs point to a very good night for the Republican Party. In the last few weeks, Democratic anxiety that their summer bounce had faded has morphed into something approaching a full-blown panic. The party’s closing message has shifted away from abortion and democracy — themes that many Democrats had hoped could deliver a stronger-than-expected showing come November — and onto the economy and healthcare. Look at the flight paths of the party’s big beasts as well as where last-minute money is being spent, and it all indicates a party playing defense — and struggling.

Why we should stop worrying and learn to love AI

Whether on British television news panels or late-night TV in America, it is hard to get away from talk about artificial intelligence (AI). Even the president of the United States has weighed in on AI, introducing an "AI Bill of Rights." The popular thing is to amplify the current media narrative — that AI will render millions jobless. It will eventually become more powerful than humans and destroy its creators. Just Google “AI doomsday” and then run and hide under the covers. I will be the first to admit that all technology has a dark side. Email came with spam and scammers; mobile phones came with robocalls and endless tracking by companies like Facebook. Artificial intelligence, too, will be used for nefarious purposes.

Now is the time for a strong social conservatism

President Biden’s recent interview with transexual TikToker Dylan Mulvaney is a clarifying event for anyone who pays attention to America’s culture wars. The first notable aspect of the interview was the mere fact that it happened — that the president of the United States, in the home stretch of a midterm election season, deemed it a prudent use of his time to sit down with such a radical activist. The second notable aspect of the interview is what our senile commander-in-chief said in the course of his conversation. At one point, Mulvaney asked our hapless supremo if he thinks states should be permitted to “ban gender-affirming health care.

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Democrats are losing because liberalism has become cruel

Welp, so much for the blue wave. That towering electoral tsunami, which was to deluge the midterm races in a soggy detritus of worn masks and Planned Parenthood pamphlets, has given way to a stark reality: 2022 is a Republican year. It was always a Republican year, as some of us have been pointing out. Voters simply weren't about to prioritize third-trimester abortions over rising crime and the price of beef. So it was that Jill Biden this week was dispatched to campaign in Rhode Island. Rhode Island. And while she no doubt made a pitstop at Brown to hobnob with her fellow doctorates, she was mainly there to campaign for endangered Democrats. In Rhode Island. A Democratic congressional PAC, meanwhile, is dumping money into deep-blue New Jersey.

The strange alliance between progressives and natcons on Ukraine

If you listened only to the rhetoric of so-called national conservatives, you would think progressives were their polar opposites. But on the issue of foreign policy, it seems like they can find some common ground. It was reported on Tuesday that the Congressional Progressive Caucus sent a letter to President Biden asking him to negotiate with Russia. It was later reported that the same letter had been hastily withdrawn after massive backlash within the Democratic Party. The missive was apparently written and signed in June, updated recently, and somehow carelessly published without all of the signatories’ consent. Either way, it seems to represent something real within the Democrats' progressive wing.