Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Are we really in the ‘last phase of the Trump Presidency’?

It’s shrinking. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll indicates that the Democrats’ edge over the Republicans in the forthcoming midterm election has dwindled among registered voters, from a 12-percent lead to 4-points. Donald Trump’s own approval ratings have edged up slightly to 40 percent, but his disapproval rating remains at a daunting 56 percent. So is it time to start waving goodbye to the Democratic wave predicted for the fall? Actually, the poll may have a salutary effect upon Democrats, reminding them that Trump and the GOP remain a potent foe.  Republicans hold a staggering 60 to 31 percent lead over Democrats among white voters who have not attended college. At the same time, far more Republican than Democratic seats are competitive races.

Mission accomplished? Easier said than done, Mr President

Donald Trump finally had something positive to say on Twitter. After nearly a week of dithering, the president made a decision and announced it, to a fair amount of surprise, on national television on Friday night: The United States, in concert with the United Kingdom and France, would launch targeted strikes on Syrian chemical weapons facilities, in response to a heartbreaking attack a week earlier in a Damascus suburb that killed dozens of civilians, including children. “A perfectly executed strike last night. Thank you to France and the United Kingdom for their wisdom and the power of their fine Military. Could not have had a better result. Mission Accomplished!” Trump tweeted on Saturday morning. Those last two words gave many pause.

James Comey comes back to haunt Trump

President Donald Trump must have a lot on his mind as an eventful week—even by the new standard he’s created in Washington—comes to an end. He has now met the deadline he set himself on Monday, when he promised to make “major decisions” within 24 to 48 hours on Syria, after “Animal Assad,” as he calls that country’s dictator, unleashed a chemical weapon attack on civilians including children. A trade war between the United States and China is still brewing, with American farmers worried their livelihoods are at risk after China vowed to stamp tariffs on their products in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on aluminium and steel—and Trump reconsidering his rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership to help them.

Is Trump the Neville Chamberlain of our time?

So Britain is responsible for staging the Syrian gas attack? According to Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov: “We have evidence that proves Britain was directly involved in organizing this provocation.” Evidence, shmevidence. Next thing you know Moscow will be offering to assist Yulia Skripal. Oh, wait. It already did.Vladimir Putin cannot conceal that his regime is complicit in some very odious deeds—and that it’s feeling increasingly confident about taunting the West. The Russian claim is deliberately preposterous.

Does President Trump have the authority to strike Assad without Congress?

When it comes to military action against the Assad regime, the United States again confronts one of the most fundamental questions of the American constitutional republic: does the president have the authority to order U.S. military force without the expressed authorisation of Congress? If you ask most executive branch officials, you would probably hear an affirmative “yes.” Generally, the case rests on a baseline argument: as Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Armed Forces, the president has the inherent power under Article I of the Constitution to protect and defend the United States. While Congress has the authority to declare war, they claim, the president also has the authority to deploy the U.S. military when it is needed to promote the U.S. national interest.

Bombing Syria would be a grave mistake

‘The whole of the Balkans,’ Otto von Bismarck said, ‘is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier.’ He was right, until he was wrong. Times changed, and so did the map. In 1914, with Bismarck gone and no one to restrain the Kaiser, terrorism in the Balkans sparked a world war.How much of Iraq was worth the bones of the thousands of Americans who died in Iraq? Only in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq did the United States turn an enemy state into an ally. How much of Syria is worth the bones of a single US Marine? None of it, because time and the map have changed.

The mind of Donald Trump, as explained by Anthony Scaramucci

When Anthony Scaramucci announced that he was writing a book about his time with Donald Trump, the joke was that it should be entitled ‘Ten Days That Shook the World’. This, he says, does him an injustice because he managed 11 days as White House communications director before being fired — after a lava flow of stories that seemed extraordinary even by Trumpian standards. But he remained loyal to the President, and has been speaking in his defence ever since. This book promises to reveal one of the deepest mysteries in American politics: how Trump’s mind works. ‘I’m almost done with the manuscript,’ he says, fresh from a meeting with his publishers in New York. ‘Obviously, my short stint in the White House won’t be a major drama.

The FBI raid on Michael Cohen was strange, but then Michael Cohen is strange

Almost from the moment Donald Trump was inaugurated the 45th president of the United States, his supporters have complained about the existence of a “deep state” within the bureaucracy that’s out to get him. There might be something to this, but not in the way its theorisers imagine. Civil servants have a lot more to do with the making and implementation of foreign policy, for example, than most outsiders appreciate. But a personal, targeted, organised campaign aimed at destroying the president? Those who believe such a conspiracy exists pointed, as further evidence, to the bombshell news this week that the FBI raided the offices and temporary home of Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. But if this is the deep state at work, it goes very deep indeed.

Paul Ryan is out, and a new congressional Republican Party is waiting to be born

Paul Ryan is only the fourth Republican to serve as speaker of the House of Representatives since 1956. When Ryan took up the gavel, what precedent was there for a successful Republican speakership in modern times? Absolutely none. And at the end of Ryan’s brief tenure—barely beyond three years, Oct. 2015 to Jan. 2019, if he stays the course—there still won’t be one. The congressional GOP is somehow both wild and passive: ideologically rigid yet utterly incapable of achieving the results that conservatives want. Ryan’s predecessor, John Boehner, resigned once he realised this.

Zuckerberg’s Facebook hearing makes me fear for the future of democracy

Mark Zuckerberg came to Washington this week. Just an ordinary, common-sense guy, with matching hoodies in his roll-on, and a company that was worth well over half a trillion dollars before it emerged that it had shared its subscribers’ personal information, instead of sticking to its real business of selling that information to advertisers. The future president wore a suit for his perp walk before the media and his Congressional cross-examination by some random old people. He could not help but look contemptuous—like the uncool grandchild of Mick Jagger and Keith Richards. Busted for drugs in 1967, Jagger and Richards knew that time was on their side.

Donald Trump’s love-in with Putin comes to an abrupt halt

In his inimitable fashion, President Trump has put Russia on notice that the era of playing kissy-face with the Kremlin has come to an abrupt halt. “Get ready Russia,” he announced. It’s bombs away for the Trump administration. The Bolton doctrine has now become the Trump doctrine.Trump’s tweet is being decried as taunting Vladimir Putin but that is what he does best. Trump is turning foreign policy into a game show, complete with real warfare. Maybe he will conduct Twitter polls asking where he should bomb next. Putin, you could say, has run into his doppelgänger and then some.None of this should really come as a surprise. Trump talked tough during the Republican primary about how America should have snatched Iraq’s oil fields.

On foreign policy, Trump is more like Obama than he would like to admit

You could call it the John Bolton effect. The president’s new National Security Adviser has only been in the job a few days, and already Donald Trump is threatening war with Russia on Twitter: Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2018 SMART! One can almost imagine Bolton’s moustache brushing Trump’s ear on that one. Trump didn’t talk about Russia like that before. But Trump’s new found bellicosity is also down to what could be called Obama syndrome.

Trump has never been more endangered

Good gracious! David Brooks, a charter member of the Never Trump movement, suddenly raises the white flag in his column today. Brooks is despondent. His efforts to expose Trump’s perfidy have failed. Instead, a very bad man, we are told, reigns supreme.The catalogue of woe is extensive. According to Brooks: “We have persuaded no one. Trump’s approval rating is around 40 percent, which is basically unchanged from where it’s been all along. We have not hindered him. Trump has more power than he did a year ago, not less.  …We have not dislodged him. For all the hype, the Mueller investigation looks less and less likely to fundamentally alter the course of the administration.” Really?

America’s defeat in Syria is complete

The Syrian civil war is in its endgame, and the ‘political solution’ that the leaders of the Western democracy talk about is in sight. That is one meaning of the appalling images from the chemical weapons attack on Eastern Ghouta. In 2011, Western intelligence agencies unanimously declared that Bashar al-Assad was finished, and that it was only a matter of time before he fell. Today, Assad, with massive Russian and Iranian support, has regained control over most of Syria.After the chemical attack on Eastern Ghouta, Arab news sites claimed that the Jaish-el-Islam militia had announced that it was willing to negotiate a ceasefire. This is another meaning to be found in the images of children gasping for air in a bombed-out hospital.

Did John Kelly really think he could bring order to Trump’s chaotic White House?

Anyone who hadn’t heard about the Washington Post story on the increasing problems facing White House chief of staff John Kelly shortly after it was published Saturday evening certainly had by Sunday morning. That’s when America’s most-watched tweeter drew the world’s attention to it.“The Washington Post is far more fiction than fact. Story after story is made up garbage - more like a poorly written novel than good reporting. Always quoting sources (not names), many of which don’t exist. Story on John Kelly isn’t true, just another hit job!” Donald Trump declared in a rare tweet in recent days that didn’t include any words in all caps.The president had some points. Parts of the piece did read a bit like an overheated work of fiction.

In defence of Paul Manafort

Poor Paul Manafort. Manafort, who tried to extricate himself from the Mueller investigation by filing a civil case alleging prosecutorial overreach, was skewered by federal judge Amy Berman on Wednesday. By the time Manafort showed up in court, his lawyer was furiously back-pedalling about what they were demanding. 'I don’t really understand,' Berman said, 'what is left of your case.' He suffered more indignities when the Guardian published a lengthy expose by Luke Harding on Thursday about his 'black ops' strategy in Ukraine. For Manafort it amounts to revealing the precious trade secrets that he patiently acquired over years of work. Harding is what is politely called an investigative journalist, which used to be known as a muckraker.

Why won’t America join the war on plastic bags? 

Bangladesh was the first to ban them back in 2002. Other countries, from Rwanda to Macedonia, have followed and in many places they are being taxed out of existence. Yet the United States’ reaction to the global drive to tackle the scourge of disposable plastic bags is, largely, a collective “meh”. What is it with America and its love affair with the plastic bag? Why has it been so hard for this country to take action the rest of the world considers both necessary and relatively painless? Here’s the boring but worthy bit: single-use plastic bags are a Bad Thing. They have a horrible effect on our oceans, swishing around in the water and posing a major hazard to marine life.

Why does nobody seem to care that Isis has used chemical weapons?

A new era of chemical warfare is upon us—an era of chemical warfare as psychological warfare. The poisoning of Russian double-agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England, has dominated the headlines. But another development, from around the same time as the Salisbury attack first became known, is revealing for the attention it hasn’t received. Have you heard about the chemical weapons in Syria that don’t belong to Bashar Assad? On March 22, the State Department officially declared one Joe Asperman a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” and subject to sanctions. “French national Joe Asperman is a senior chemical weapons expert for Isis,” the State Department announced.

Why the Democrats won’t win big in November

Is a big blue Democratic wave poised to sweep the Republicans out of Congress in the 2018 mid-term election? To listen to much of the media, you might think so. A couple of weeks ago, the Washington Post quoted Nate Silver, the Yoda of Dem pollsters, who suggested that the “Democratic wave in 2018 may be swelled substantially by the enthusiasm gap into a tsunami.” Last month, when the conservative Democrat Conor Lamb eked out a narrow victory over Rick Saccone in a special Congressional election in Pennsylvania, CNN gleefully reported that “Lamb’s performance is ominous for Republicans as the November midterm elections approach.

Does Donald Trump wish he owned a newspaper?

Edward Luce warns today in the Financial Times that Donald Trump’s fusillades at Amazon and its proprietor Jeff Bezos are more than simply addled bluster. They represent, we are told, a coherent strategy to undermine independent media. “Trump,” Luce writes, “has already tilted the playing field towards his media allies.” Pshaw! Trump isn’t hurting Bezos. He’s helping him. Trump, of all people, should know the value of free publicity. No one has done more to rehabilitate the media than Trump.  As Jack Shafer astutely observes in Politico, “Every denunciation of the Post, the New York Times, NBC News, CBS News, CNN and other outlets serves to boost those outlets’ audiences and their corresponding revenues.