How grim things are suddenly looking for Nigel Farage and Reform UK. It isn’t that their poll ratings are crashing – in spite of a minor decline in the polls in recent weeks, the party still holds a commanding lead. For the moment, the outcome of the next election continues to look like being either a Reform UK government of a Reform UK-led coalition with the Tories.
At the current rate there is a serious chance that by 2029 the Conservatives could end up looking fresher than Reform UK
Conservative MPs are certainly convinced that their party is dying, which is why so many are defecting. Robert Jenrick – assuming he does join Reform – can no longer technically be a defector because Kemi Badenoch has removed the Conservative party whip, but he would be by far the biggest beast to flee the Tory forest yet. Surely, his leaving will trigger an avalanche of more Tory MPs into Reform’s eager hands.
But therein lies the problem for Reform UK. The party’s appeal depends on it not being the Tory party. It has been polling well because former Conservative voters are reacting to the failures by the last Conservative government. While Reform UK needs Tory voters to defect, it is going to endanger itself if it accepts too many former Tory MPs. It will then start to look rather too much like the last, failed government.
At the current rate there is a serious chance that by 2029 the Conservatives could end up looking fresher than Reform UK. Robert Jenrick as Reform UK home affairs spokesman, anyone? Jenrick might complain that his former boss, Rishi Sunak, wouldn’t let him do his job properly as immigration minister, but that is not how voters are likely to see it. What they would see in Reform is continuity Tory failure on migration – a subject which until now has been Reform UK’s strongest suit.
To form a majority, Reform cannot rely alone on ex-Conservative voters. It also needs to continue to eat into Labour’s Red Wall vote. It has served itself well by adopting left-wing positions on some issues such as nationalisation of utilities. But it is hard to see that carrying on if too many of its frontbench people and policymakers are ex-Conservatives. Reform desperately need a Labour defector. Farage has promised one next week. But whether this proves to be an MP or a town councillor will be crucial.
Of course, Farage hasn’t yet accepted Jenrick as a Reform member, still less appointed him to any frontbench position. Maybe he won’t. Perhaps he will see the danger and leave Jenrick out in the cold. But the suggestion that Jenrick has got as far as writing a resignation letter, and an alleged dinner with Farage, suggests that he was pretty confident of being able to continue his political career in new clothes.
But then where would Reform UK stand if it turned its back on Tory defectors? It has a big problem in that is has to source 650 credible candidates in time for the next election. From where? It can look to its current crop of councillors, but many are inexperienced, and it shows. Just like Ukip before it, Reform has a constant battle to fend off racists and extremists who (however mild and reasonable Reform’s actual policies might be) will see the party as a vehicle to advance their far-right views. Taking in Tory defectors enables the party to take a short cut in the search for credible candidates with political experience. But too many of them, unbalanced by MPs from the left, could be the death of Reform UK.
Watch Tim Shipman and James Heale discuss Jenrick’s sacking on Spectator TV:
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