There’s a slight feeling of 1990 to the way the Tories are selling the early local election results. Back then, party chairman Kenneth Baker managed to spin victory into defeat. By concentrating the media’s attention on Conservative holds in Wandsworth and Westminster, he turned perceptions of a bad night for the government on its head. It was a masterclass in political PR.
Kemi Badenoch is entitled to feel a measure of relief. But relief is where it should end. The party’s gains have come exclusively at the expense of Labour during a period of record unpopularity for Sir Keir Starmer
Fast forward 36 years, and his modern equivalent Kevin Hollinrake is attempting to pull off the same trick. While the surge of Reform across much of England is undoubtedly bad news for Kemi Badenoch, the capital provides her with at least a glimmer of hope. Overnight, the Conservatives won back the symbolically significant Westminster City Council from Labour. Having been under Tory control since its creation in 1965, its loss to Labour in 2022 was an historic blow.
Understandably, Conservative HQ is mightily relieved to have it back, with a party spokesperson saying: ‘Under Kemi Badenoch, the Conservatives are coming back in London. This victory is a clear sign of the progress the Conservatives are making under new leadership. This is also testament to the hard work of Conservative councillors and activists in Westminster. We are confident they will show that only the Conservatives are serious about delivering better services for lower taxes.’
And Westminster isn’t the only bright spot for the Tories in London. They’ve also become the largest party again in Wandsworth and are confident of running the council, thanks to the emergence as kingmaker of the independent Malcolm Grimston, who used to be a Conservative councillor. Meanwhile, the Tories are also optimistic about taking back Barnet Borough Council from Labour, having lost control of it in 2022.
Against a challenging national backdrop and with the demographics of London becoming increasingly difficult for Tory breakthroughs, Kemi Badenoch is entitled to feel a measure of relief. But relief is where it should end. The party’s gains have come exclusively at the expense of Labour during a period of record unpopularity for Sir Keir Starmer. Elsewhere in the capital, the underlying weakness of the Conservative brand remains.
In leafy Sutton, the Tories lost all 20 of its councillors to the Lib Dems, with Reform winning two. The Conservatives have also gone backwards in neighbouring Merton, losing three seats, and the party has lost its last remaining councillor in Richmond-upon-Thames. While the Tories did manage to gain two seats in Hammersmith & Fulham, these again came at the expense of Labour. In other words, the party is only managing to win against an even more unpopular alternative.
By comparison, in areas more favourable to Reform, the Conservatives are struggling. Nigel Farage’s party has taken control of Havering, where the Tories were previously the largest party. Further Reform gains in Bromley are also likely as more results come through, however the Conservatives have defied expectations by retaining control of Bexley.
So if there are green shoots of a Tory fight-back in London they are just that: early signs of recovery, but no more. Perhaps a bigger question for the party will be how seriously it intends to take the mayoral contest in 2028. Shaun Bailey and Susan Hall were weak candidates in 2021 and 2024, and yet both still outperformed expectations, thanks in large part to the unpopularity of Sadiq Khan.
If the Conservatives want to make a more meaningful breakthrough in the capital, they should field the strongest candidate possible and go for broke. Shadow housing secretary James Cleverly said last year that he ‘would be stupid’ not to think about a run. Rumours linking Seb Coe with the job have also never fully gone away. And while Reform’s early selection of Laila Cunningham may have given the party a head-start among right-leaning voters, the Conservatives retain a natural advantage in London’s leafier suburbs.
In the meantime, expect CCHQ to go into overdrive channelling the spirit of Kenneth Baker this weekend. I suspect we’ll hear Westminster and Wandsworth cited a lot by shadow ministers, especially as neither YouGove nor More In Common’s MRP analysis suggested the party would take them. But the Tories should be cautious about over-interpreting these rare bright spots. They are reasons for relief, not rejoicing.
ENDS
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