Has President Trump discovered his “off-ramp” from the war in Iran? His administration insists that Iran’s military power has been crushed, that its already broken economy is now all but dead, and that the Islamic Republic is on its last legs, desperate to make a deal.
Yet Tehran, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard deep state that effectively calls the shots, still shows little willingness to accept defeat. Indeed, if anything, the official noises and propaganda emanating from Iranian channels suggest a regime that feels Trump has committed a huge strategic blunder.
Trump has, on Truth Social at least, extended his ceasefire “indefinitely” while negotiations continue. But the Iranian peace talks – similar to so many other aspects of Trump’s second presidency – now appear to exist in some strange state of limbo between reality and fantasy.
If America and Israel can’t fix the Iran problem, that’s hardly a good omen for a new world order
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The US naval blockade continues. The US sanctions remain in place. The fundamental issues separating the combatants remain unresolved, and the price of oil is rising as the markets realize that wars don’t just end because a President says “PEACE” in capital letters on social media.
America’s overriding goal seems simple: Iran must end its nuclear program, once and for all. But Iran does not appear willing to oblige and still wants to have a ballistic missile program as well as the freedom to support its proxy forces in the region.
All of these conditions are unacceptable to America’s Gulf allies, chiefly Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are increasingly adamant that the Islamic Republic cannot survive. Even though Trump wants to find a way out of this costly and unpopular war, he may find he has no choice but to do what the hawks in his circle have always wanted: “finish the job.” In other words, restart and escalate the military campaign and deploy ground operations.
Few expect that Trump will resort to full-scale invasion, but securing the Strait of Hormuz will mean dealing with the threats to shipping along the Iranian coast. Yet these threats do not come from a centralized Iranian control system: rather, like the Houthis in Yemen, it seems Iran’s coastal resistance consists chiefly of piratical elements, loosely loyal to Tehran but operating on their own terms.
These elements can be bombed and paid off sporadically. But to secure free passage in the strait, America and its allies will have to spend ever greater sums of money and commit significant naval and air assets to handle these troublemakers.
The brighter picture is that for all the disruption from Iran, this conflict may be good news for America’s ever more powerful oil and gas industries. The more intelligent voices supporting the Iran war have always suggested that, long-term, a crisis over Hormuz could help a great energy realignment, to the benefit of the US.
In theory, America might now be able to seal its status as the indispensable hydrocarbon superpower. The United States is no longer dependent on foreign oil. Under the strain of the Iran war, OPEC, the global oil cartel that once extorted the world economy, is losing its grip. The United Arab Emirates has left the group and will now be able to pump out as much black gold as it wants. Today, OPEC controls just 30 percent of global energy. And America dominates the fossil fuel industry in a way that has not been true since the 1960s. For Donald Trump, energy supply has always been the most pressing foreign-policy issue. It is no coincidence that all of his significant military operations have been conducted in countries that have large oil reserves – from Venezuela to Nigeria and Yemen to Iran. He is, conspicuously, reshaping the world to make sure America controls the global flow of hydrocarbons.
The threat to this strategy, of course, is China, which has its own designs on world energy flows. Beijing is investing in a future in which wind, solar and nuclear power drive an increasingly electrified world. The key question hanging over the Iran war is whether it proves to be a blow to China’s global plans or a boon. Will post-conflict Iran become another satrapy of Beijing? And will it be China, not America and Europe, that ensures that the strait reopens and the global economy goes back to normal?
America’s leadership is furious at Europe’s failure to arm itself sufficiently in the fight for the Middle East. The Pentagon has been suggesting in recent weeks that Britain and Spain might be “punished” for not supporting the US agenda, especially when it comes to Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has taken to posting videos on social media mocking the Europeans for the feebleness of their armed forces.
Such outbursts might be emotionally satisfying but Team Trump should be wary. Anti-American sentiment is spreading across the old continent. European leaders now talk about “Trump’s America” as if they were the wronged or even abused partner in a failing marriage. Trump may want an end to NATO and a new western security alliance built around its friendship with Israel. But if America and Israel can’t fix the Iran problem, and Europe isn’t willing, that’s hardly a good omen for a new world order.
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